Emmy Predictions: Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Listed below are the ten semi-finalists for this category. Episodes submitted by performers are listed in parentheses after their names. Beware of minor spoilers for the episodes described. Nominees are pictured in order of likelihood of getting nominated, and listed below alphabetically.

Notably missing: Chi McBride (Pushing Daisies), Michael Urie (Ugly Betty)

JON CRYER, TWO AND A HALF MEN (Meander to Your Dander)
I thought Cryer was deserving of a nomination (and win) for the first season of “Two and a Half Men” four years ago but his act has grown tired and his plotlines, and the show, have gone far downhill. I’d like to assume that “Two and a Half Men” can fall out of favor with Emmy voters this year, but I’ve been hearing the opposite, and it also doesn’t work that way, category to category. I’m just hoping they’re willing to embrace something new, and I think someone will take Cryer’s spot.

KEVIN DILLON, ENTOURAGE (The Dream Team)
Dillon snuck in last year after all the buzz had previously gone to costar Jeremy Piven. I’m not sure if he can stick it out, however, his episode choice is terrific. His desire to join a medical marijuana club simply to get the free trucker hat perfectly encapsulates his character. I’m looking at this category as including Piven, Krasinski, and Wilson with a three-way fight between Dillon, Cryer, and Harris for additional slots, hopefully to be occupied by new performers. We’ll see. Dillon may very well return.

JUSTIN KIRK, WEEDS (Bill Sussman)
If Kirk couldn’t get nominated for his astonishing work in the first season of “Weeds”, I don’t think it’s ever going to happen. He’s not nearly as good anymore (though he’s returning to his former quality in the currently-airing season four, eligible for the 2009 Emmys). His episode submission has him returning for his individualized plotline in the army, and could serve him well, but he falls behind the aforementioned likely six (Piven, Krasinski, Wilson, Dillon, Cryer, and Harris), and I’m sure he won’t be as popular as the “30 Rock” boys.

NEIL PATRICK HARRIS (The Goat)
I think Harris and his show are horribly overrated, yet I’m aware that most people disagree with me. His episode choice, far better plot-wise than last year, should help him along to a slot. I know that HIMYM fans loved the Ted-breaking-up-with-Barney plotline and Harris is, if nothing else, highly amusing to watch. It’s a good episode for his character.

JOHN KRASINSKI, THE OFFICE (Branch Wars)
This should be Krasinski’s fourth nomination coming up, but somehow, he’s never made it in. I have of course been predicting him since season one (along with Wilson, which paid off last year). Last year, his episode submission was to blame, and I think he’ll finally get it this year. I initially thought “Branch Wars” wouldn’t be a good choice for Krasinski, suspecting he would choose it after watching it live, but I think it will go over well with voters, and I still can’t stop laughing about those mustaches.

JACK MCBRAYER, 30 ROCK (Episode 210)
I predicted that McBrayer would steal a spot last year, only to have my hopes thwarted by one Doogie Howser. If it’s possible, the pedigree and buzz for “30 Rock” has gone up since last year, and the inclusion of McBrayer in the top ten (the full list wasn’t released last year, just 5 or 6 names, so we don’t know if he made it) is a terrific sign. He’s a much better actor than Tracy Morgan, that’s for sure, and his caffeine addiction allows him to do the kind of things that comedy supporting actors are supposed to do. I’m happy to predict him again with much higher hopes.

TRACY MORGAN, 30 ROCK (Secrets and Lies)
One thing is certain: Morgan is crazy, just like his character. I saw him on the street in Times Square and did not say hello because he looked angry. Anyway, he’s not really an actor who should be winning awards, especially compared to the rest of the cast. If voters really go ape for “30 Rock”, I could see the list being Morgan, McBrayer, Krasinski, Wilson, and Piven. His episode choice is not nearly as funny as the episode where he hallucinates Richard Nixon. He will at least fare better here than last year when he went lead.

JEREMY PIVEN, ENTOURAGE (The Day Fuckers)
Piven won this award the past two years, and there’s no question that he’ll be back again. He’s by far the most popular out of this list of contenders, and he’s just as consistently excellent as he was from day one. His episode submission also features him doing what he does best – pissing a bunch of people off with his arrogance and then running around trying to appease them without actually apologizing. Win #4, perhaps?

FRED WILLARD, BACK TO YOU (Cradle to Grave)
This is further proof that Emmy voters don’t even look at the name of the show, and often reward veteran actors for simply being on TV shows (see: Sharon Gless). Willard’s a great funnyman and has certainly paid his due, with three Emmy nominations for guest-starring on “Everybody Loves Raymond” to prove it. This, however, is not a role he should be receiving any kind of recognition for. Even leads Kelsey Grammer and Patricia Heaton didn’t make their respective top tens, and Willard’s barely in his episode, hardly as funny as usual to boot. It’s a real shame, considering Michael Urie, Chi McBride, or Rhys Darby could have actually gotten nominated had they made the top ten. Willard, in my mind, is the least likely nominee in any category at this year’s Emmys.

RAINN WILSON, THE OFFICE (Money)
Wilson got nominated for the first time last year, and my bet is that he’s here to stay as “The Office” only becomes more popular. In his chosen episode, Jim and Pam come to visit his farm, making for real hilarity and showing just how much of a goofball Dwight really is. I don’t know if it can win him the Emmy, but he’ll be nominated for sure. He’s been terrific this whole season.

Current predictions:
NEIL PATRICK HARRIS, HOW I MET YOUR MOTHER
JOHN KRASINSKI, THE OFFICE
JACK MCBRAYER, 30 ROCK
JEREMY PIVEN, ENTOURAGE
RAINN WILSON, THE OFFICE