Emmy Predictions: Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Listed below are the ten semi-finalists for this category. Episodes submitted by performers are listed in parentheses after their names. Beware of minor spoilers for the episodes described. Nominees are pictured in order of likelihood of getting nominated, and listed below alphabetically.

Notably missing: Teri Hatcher (Desperate Housewives), Patricia Heaton (Back to You)

CHRISTINA APPLEGATE, SAMANTHA WHO? (The Restraining Order)
I’m sort of surprised that Applegate’s still a contender since I figured her new hot status would peter out by this point. Regardless, she’s gotten Golden Globe and SAG nominations, and despite losing both times to Tina Fey, I think she’s very much capable of making it in to the top five. She also won an Emmy for her guest turn on “Friends”, a far less funny performance. I think Emmy voters want to reward her for her work in television rather than on any specific show. Her episode choice is fine, though in my mind it hardly matters. She’s pretty much the same in all of them – overplaying it a bit, but still remaining endearing enough to keep viewers from wanting to strangle her.

MARCIA CROSS, DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES (Now You Know)
I’m predicting a complete “Housewives” snub (especially after the show and Dana Delany didn’t even make it into the top tens), but that’s not really a good way of gauging the individual contenders. Cross, nominated only for the show’s first season, where her deserved win for the second half of the season got caught with Teri Hatcher’s deserved win for the first and somehow ended up in an unfortunate victory for Felicity Huffman, missed out last year partly due to her real-life pregnancy and absence from most of the season. This year, she’s back and faking a pregnancy, a shtick that got old really quick. I’d much prefer her getting in over Huffman, but for some reason Huffman seems to have voters in her pocket.

AMERICA FERRERA, UGLY BETTY (Odor in the Court)
Ferrera won this award last year when her show was overwhelmingly popular. Some have speculated that buzz has gone down so much that she might be snubbed, but I find that hard to imagine. Her episode choice is entirely respectable, as it showcases her doing what she does best, being awkward, loud, and crazy, all the while still being loveable Betty. I’m sure she won’t win again (take a look at the next contender), but I’m sure she’ll be nominated.

TINA FEY, 30 ROCK (Sandwich Day)
Fey is on fire. She won both the Golden Globe and SAG Award this year after accepting the Best Comedy Series trophy at the Emmys last year. She plays the straight woman in a cast of goofy characters, but her episode choice highlights her neurosis and, as pointed out by Cultural Learnings, she demonstrates her ability to eat in it. It’s a great choice, and barring some unforeseen love for Christina Applegate, I think Fey will take this one home for the win. Voters really want to reward her for her years of work in television comedy, and that can’t hurt.

ANNA FRIEL, PUSHING DAISIES (Bitter Sweets)
This is an interesting inclusion since while you’re supposed to really like Friel’s character Chuck, I’ve found something very irritating about her since the very beginning. She’s not funny, which I think will hurt her just as much as costar Lee Pace, and most of all, she’s just not well known. Unless Emmy voters go nuts for “Pushing Daisies”, Friel will surely rank after most of the Housewives, Parker, Dreyfus, Applegate, Ferrera, and Frey. Her episode choice shows her character’s serious side which is a downside in this category (not if you ask Felicity Huffman, though).

FELICITY HUFFMAN, DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES (Now I Know, Don’t Be Scared)
I liked Huffman when I first saw her guest-starring on episodes of the short-lived but terrific legal drama “The D.A.” back in 2004 before “Desperate Housewives” started. I even liked her in the show’s first season. But she’s always been horrendously overrated. She’s saddled with overwhelmingly depressing plotlines, one after another, and I get annoyed by her. Her episode features stupid humor about shooting possums and certainly doesn’t merit a nomination (her plotline isn’t even listed in the episode description). Regardless of how I feel about her, looking at the contenders and their chances, she still comes up sixth.

EVA LONGORIA, DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES (In Buddy’s Eyes)
Along with a good portion of the world, I’m quite surprised that Longoria made it in over more respected costar Teri Hatcher. I’m happy for her since I think she was the strongest actress in seasons 2 and 3 and never got credit for it, but this season? Her episode choice is especially representative of what I didn’t like about her character this year – her casual, horrible lack of caring or anything for her newly blind husband. Am I equating Longoria too much with the fate of her character? Perhaps, but she’s done better in the past. In any case, this isn’t her year to get nominated. Ever heard of Courteney Cox or Kristin Davis?

JULIA LOUIS-DREYFUS, THE NEW ADVENTURES OF OLD CHRISTINE (One and a Half Men)
Louis-Dreyfus is pretty terrible on her equally terrible show, but for some inexplicable reason, people LOVE it and I’ve read many posts decrying her show’s snub since it’s apparently the funniest show on TV. Hmm, no one told me. Anyway, her episode is a good showcase for what voters seem to like, showing her going batty because she thinks she’s going through menopause and threatening mothers who tell their kids not to dance with her son. Her reunion with “Seinfeld” costar Jason Alexander is a reminder of better times, and may serve well to sway voters unconvinced, like me, by her performance.

MARY-LOUISE PARKER, WEEDS (Bill Sussman)
Watching every episodes this season of “Weeds”, I thought Parker was absolutely incredible. She should be the default winner in my mind, but I know better than to hope for that. Many are grumbling that she’s likely to be snubbed, but I truly hope that doesn’t happen. One thing to remember is that she’s only actually been nominated once, and that was last year. I can’t actually remember her specific episode (I’ll re-watch it if I get a chance), but she really deserves to be nominated again. I’m fine with Fey for the win, but she needs to at least be recognized.

SARAH SILVERMAN, THE SARAH SILVERMAN PROGRAM (Bored of the Rings)
Wow, Sarah Silverman in the top ten. It’s very exciting until you realize that her show is one of the worst things on television (not as bad at “’Til Death”, sure). She’s a funny comedienne but this is not a good showcase of her work. She comes across as idiotic and obnoxious without any redeeming qualities or humor to make up for it. There is absolutely no way she is getting nominated – the episode ends with a rather unconventional spontaneous abortion involving a male and a sword. Emmy voters will not go for that. Look for in the Guest Actress category, maybe, but not here.

Current predictions:
CHRISTINA APPLEGATE, SAMANTHA WHO?
AMERICA FERRERA, UGLY BETTY
TINA FEY, 30 ROCK
JULIA LOUIS-DREYFUS, OLD CHRISTINE
MARY-LOUISE PARKER, WEEDS