Emmy Predictions: Best Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Listed below are eight of the ten semi-finalists for this category. The other haven’t been revealed yet. I’ll post an update if they come out. Episodes submitted by performers are listed in parentheses after their names. Beware of minor spoilers for the episodes described. Nominees are pictured in order of likelihood of getting nominated, and listed below alphabetically.

ALEC BALDWIN, 30 ROCK (Rosemary’s Baby)
“30 Rock” is wildly popular with Emmy voters, and the only reason Baldwin didn’t win last year was a poor episode choice (the finale). This year, he’s rectified that mistake by picking an episode with a single clip that should win him the Emmy. Playing Tracy Morgan’s parents and a colorful cast of other characters in a wacky but hilarious therapy session should seal him the win, but there’s no question that he’ll be nominated.

STEVE CARRELL, THE OFFICE (Goodbye, Toby)
Carrell initially picked a terrible episode as his submission (Branch Wars), which did not showcase him in any special light and could have led to a surprising snub. Luckily, he’s switched to the one-hour season finale, where he’s both funny and has some dramatic scenes. It was never really likely that he would be snubbed, but now it’s certain he’ll get in for a nomination.

LARRY DAVID, CURB YOUR ENTHUSIASM (The Bat Mitzvah)
David has been nominated for an Emmy for the past three seasons of “Curb” though the show didn’t air during the eligibility period last year. He should be able to return to the lineup, especially given the recent love for the somewhat similar Tina Fey (by that I mean the style of the acting and the role). His episode puts him in a typical pickle, facing repercussions after insensitively mocking people left and right. I think he’s safe.

DAVID DUCHOVNY, CALIFORNICATION (The Last Waltz)
Duchovny was only actually nominated for two Emmys for “The X-Files”, though he made it into the Guest Comedy Actor category twice, once for “The Larry Sanders Show” and the other time for “Life with Bonnie”. I worry that he might be left off because it’s occasionally a more dramatic performance, but his recent Golden Globe win and that big movie coming out in three weeks should push him to the top of the pile. His submission (the finale) is great, but it might be tough to understand his character’s back story without the rest of the season in mind.

BRAD GARRETT, ‘TIL DEATH (Swimming with Starks)
This has got to be one of the worst shows on television. Getting through this episode was unbearable. The plot is almost as devastatingly predictable as the jokes. Garrett tries hard enough, I suppose, but he’s overshadowed by J.B. Smoove in his chosen episode (and in a bad way! Watch “Curb” if you want to see Smoove act well!). Worst of all, the episode doesn’t allow Garrett any opportunity for physical comedy, something he’s quite good at, instead showing him flopping around in a pool. What a waste. No chance.

LEE PACE, PUSHING DAISIES (Pie-lette/Pilot)
Pace’s nomination really depends on whether voters like his show. It’s a very reserved performance and I initially commented that I enjoyed him a lot more in “Wonderfalls” a few years back when he was much more excitable. If his show gets in for Best Comedy Series, he might have a shot, but there’s no way he’s in without his show. He picked a good episode, but I think he’ll sit this one out.

TONY SHALHOUB, MONK (Mr. Monk and the Naked Man)
Most Emmy forum posters despise Shalhoub for his continuous victories, but I really think that he’s deserving. Much as Alec Baldwin and Steve Carrell really do need to win Emmys soon, Shalhoub is absolutely deserving of a nomination. His episode choice is wise, as he’s trading more dramatic fare (like the two-part season finale) for outright comedy (what could bug Monk more than a nudist?). I think he’ll get in again.

CHARLIE SHEEN, TWO AND A HALF MEN (Is There a Mrs. Waffles?)
Sheen is constantly referred to in forums as the worst actor on television, yet he’s managed to get nominated the past two years. While it was funny to begin with, there are far more deserving candidates out there (most of the top 10, save for Garrett) and he really has no business being nominated. That said, his episode is actually a good one as it highlights a different side of him (writing kids’ songs) rather than the stale episode submitted for the show (Charlie’s a womanizer? No way!). It’s Sheen, David, and Duchovny for those last two slots after Baldwin, Carrell, and Shalhoub. I think Sheen misses the cut.

So, who are the final two, and more importantly, does it matter?

My original predictions, besides Kelsey Grammer, who has been confirmed as not being on the list, were Zach Braff (Scrubs) and Jason Lee (My Name is Earl), but I’m beginning to doubt their chances given snubs in comedy series (Scrubs) and supporting actress (Jaime Pressly of “Earl”). I’d love to see either of the “Flight of the Conchords” duo make it in, as well as James Roday from “Psych”. I’d otherwise suspect the overrated Ted Radnor (How I Met Your Mother), Jim Parsons (The Big Bang Theory) or either Adrien Grenier or Kevin Connolly from “Entourage”. Regardless, none of that group can rank higher than Baldwin, Carrell, David, Duchovny, Shalhoub, and Sheen and likely not higher than Lee Pace. Brad Garrett is dead last no matter what, but I’d pick out Kevin Connolly and James Roday to fill those last two slots.

Current predictions:
ALEC BALDWIN, 30 ROCK
STEVE CARRELL, THE OFFICE
LARRY DAVID, CURB YOUR ENTHUSIASM
DAVID DUCHOVNY, CALIFORNICATION
TONY SHALHOUB, MONK