Emmy Predictions: Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Listed below are the eleven semi-finalists for this category. Episodes submitted by performers are listed in parentheses after their names. Beware of minor spoilers for the episodes described. Nominees are pictured in order of likelihood of getting nominated, and listed below alphabetically.

Notably missing: Terry O’Quinn (Lost), Henry Ian Cusick (Lost), Donald Sutherland (Dirty Sexy Money), John Laroquette (Boston Legal – and I’m now convinced he would have gotten nominated with his episode had he made the top ten)

NAVEEN ANDREWS, LOST (The Economist)
I’m proud that I correctly called this inclusion. Now that Andrews did make it in and costars O’Quinn and Cusick didn’t, he should be considered a relative force with which to be reckoned. He turns in a terrific performance in his episode, and while he had a surprisingly small role this season, he really kicked ass in his flash-forward. Costar Michael Emerson will definitely rank higher than him, but previous nominee Andrews (for the show’s first season) has a decent shot at spoiling.

BRUCE DERN, BIG LOVE (Good Guys and Bad Guys)
I had no idea Bruce Dern was even on “Big Love”. As I stated in regards to Jeanne Tripplehorn, I don’t plan to watch submitted episodes of “Big Love” because I’ve only seen the pilot and may one day opt to get into the show, but more importantly – Dern has no chance. Irrespective of whether he’s insanely good in his episode, he won’t rank above Emerson, Danson, Slattery, Underwood, Clemenson, Shatner, or Andrews. I’ve also heard that Dern was hardly in season two and played a much more relevant role in the show’s first season. It’s sort of like that expression – “the nomination is the win” – only Dern stays here. His top ten placement is his consolation prize.

CHRISTIAN CLEMENSON, BOSTON LEGAL (Roe vs. Wade, The Musical)
This is Clemenson’s first time competing in this category after two consecutive nominations in the guest actor category (and a win the first time). Clemenson’s performance is definitely goofy and many find it to be too gimmicky. His episode choice gives him a good, somewhat moving monologue but shortens the comic moments of his performance so that it seems very much out of place. I got used to it by seeing Clemenson in all of his costars’ submitted episodes, but I don’t think Clemenson can break through this year with this episode. The awkward hug at the end can’t help.

TED DANSON (Jesus, Mary, and Joe Cocker)
Danson returns to television for one of the most well-reviewed shows of the year. While I wouldn’t include him on my personal ballot, it’s a meaty role and he plays it well. I do agree with many forum posters who have said that he should have gone with “Sort of Like A Family” as his episode, due to one incredible scene in it, but he’ll be fine with the show’s second installment, where his character starts being humanized. The actor who got nominated for an Emmy for all eleven seasons of “Cheers” is a lock for this year.

MICHAEL EMERSON, LOST (The Shape of Things to Come)
After a somewhat uncertain chance at a nomination last year did in fact result in one, Emerson is now a frontrunner for another nomination and possibly the win. He was consistently excellent this year, and his episode submission is amazing. Watching his daughter get murdered and then promising to track down Widmore’s daughter at the end of the episode are the kind of moments that people win Emmys for. He’s in for a nomination, especially without costars O’Quinn and Cusick to contend with, it’s all just a matter of whether he can beat Danson and Underwood.

ZELJKO IVANEK, DAMAGES (I Hate These People)
This one did come as sort of a surprise – I’m not sure anyone quite realized how popular “Damages” would be with voters (see: Peter Riegert in the guest actor category). Ivanek is a terrific actor, his best role being Andre Drazen on the first season of “24”. Here he does a commendable enough job, but his accent is pretty terrible and that made me not like him, so it’s possible voters will feel the same way. He will probably be overshadowed by costar Ted Danson, but keep in mind that Mark Wahlberg garnered an unexpected Oscar nomination over far more well-known and respected actor Jack Nicholson for “The Departed”. Additionally, Ivanek’s episode is incredible. Except for that accent, which I think will ultimately do him in.

T.R. KNIGHT, GREY’S ANATOMY (Freedom, Parts 1 & 2)
No! I watched “Freedom” before it came out that Knight had submitted it, because it was the series’ submission. Knight just runs around squawking the entire time about how he’s the Chief’s intern and it’s one of the most grating things I’ve ever seen. Chyler Leigh’s not exactly a great scene partner (particularly in this episode, sometime she’s better), but I assume that it’s got to be better than that Izzie-George incest I heard about from the first half of the season. Knight was not deserving of a nomination last year, and for him to be included again this year over anyone else would be a real shame.

WILLIAM SHATNER, BOSTON LEGAL (Mad About You)
He’s never going away. Shatner was funny when he guest-starred on “The Practice” back in 2004 during its final episodes, but his whole act got pretty old shortly into the first season of “Boston Legal”. Most importantly, it’s not a dramatic performance. What’s annoying is that he always manages to pick out an episode which makes it seem like he’s a really good actor by manipulating the story, like last year with inserted footage of Shatner from an old courtroom drama to draw out a connection to his father. This year he pretty much commands the episode, and I’m all but certain he’ll get nominated again.

JOHN SLATTERY, MAD MEN (Long Weekend)
Slattery has been bouncing around a number of TV shows over the past couple of years, notably “Jack & Bobby” a few years back, as well as appearing in the first half of this season of “Desperate Housewives”. He’s perfectly cast on “Mad Men” as the sleazy but likable advertising firm partner Roger Sterling. His episode is what really does it for him – having a heart attack and realizing what’s most important to him. I thought he’d be ranked sixth after Underwood, but with Henry Ian Cusick out of the picture, I think he’s in for a nomination. And boy do Emmy voters seem to love “Mad Men”.

BLAIR UNDERWOOD, IN TREATMENT (Alex: Week 6)
Underwood, like Slattery, has been on everything lately. He failed to pick up Emmy nominations for his work years ago on “L.A. Law” or “Sex and the City”, and he’s currently moonlighting on both “The New Adventures of Old Christine” and “Dirty Sexy Money”. Underwood is incredible on “In Treatment”, and while I would have had him submit he previous week’s episode, this is a killer episode for him. It’s also one that’s sure to appeal to Emmy voters, and I think it’s highly improbable that Underwood will be snubbed.

JAKE WEBER, MEDIUM (Wicked Game, Part 1) (not pictured)
Say what? If this was an award for acting better than Patricia Arquette, Weber might be eligible, but an Emmy? I know that many “Medium” fans have always raved about his performance and I guess those same people happen to be Emmy voters. He’s sort of a waste of space, but I suppose people love them a supportive husband. His episode, however, is horrendous. He just comes off as dumb. He’s terrible, and I cannot hope to understand why anyone would vote for him.

Current predictions:
TED DANSON, DAMAGES
MICHAEL EMERSON, LOST
WILLIAM SHATNER, BOSTON LEGAL
JOHN SLATTERY, MAD MEN
BLAIR UNDERWOOD, IN TREATMENT