Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Steve Buscemi as Nucky Thompson, Boardwalk Empire (Return to Normalcy)
The only contender from a freshman series is coming into this race strong, having won both the Golden Globe and the SAG award earlier this year. That precedent doesn’t mean much, however, since the last winner of either award to take home an Emmy in this category was Kiefer Sutherland five years ago. His submitted episode, however, is quite strong, the season finale in which he breaks down and then rallies to go out on a triumphant note.

Kyle Chandler as Eric Taylor, Friday Night Lights (Always)
Chandler earns his second nomination for the final season of the football drama. Overdue love for the show netted him the nod last year, and that could similarly win him the award this year if not for the competition in the category. In his episode, the series finale, he gets to freak out about his daughter getting proposed to and make an important life-changing decision. He’s a dark horse if ever there was one, but him winning is very unlikely.

Michael C. Hall as Dexter Morgan, Dexter (Teenage Wasteland)
Hall came close to winning last year after picking up both the Golden Globe and the SAG award, and I fear that his chances may be all but gone now after a fifth season that many thought was weaker than the fourth. This year’s submission is one of the season’s best installments, as Dexter balances family and his new friend, and it’s as strong an hour as he’s ever submitted, though it still may not be enough to defeat Hamm or Buscemi.

Jon Hamm as Don Draper, Mad Men (The Suitcase)
Hamm has been bested since the start of his show by the star of another AMC show, and now that he’s not eligible, Hamm has the best show to take home this award. He also has the best episode of the bunch, which has him displaying a full range of emotion and vulnerability opposite costar Elisabeth Moss. If not for Buscemi, he’d have this award in the bag.

Hugh Laurie as Dr. Gregory House, House (After Hours)
If not for Kyra Sedgwick’s surprise win last year, I’d say that Laurie’s time had long passed and he doesn’t have any chance of winning. Though he has two Golden Globes and two SAG awards, he’s lost on all of his five previous Emmy tries. Trying to give himself surgery on his leg in a bathtub sounds like great bait, but the episode doesn’t feature him as prominently as it should, so I’d say he’s out this year.

Timothy Olyphant as Raylan Givens, Justified (Reckoning)
Olyphant joins this race for his show’s stellar second year, along with two of his other cast members. The show certainly isn’t everyone’s cup of tea, and FX programs have rarely been rewarded by Emmy voters. Still, Olyphant was smart to submit the episode in which he investigates the murder of his aunt, which is a powerhouse installment featuring a great performance.

Who should win (based on entire season): Hamm
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Hamm
Who will win: I would say that the race is down to Hamm and Buscemi, and while Buscemi has the “now” factor going for him, I think Hamm will finally take it this year.

Next up: Best Lead Actress in a Drama Series