Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Drama Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

BOARDWALK EMPIRE
“Boardwalk Empire” & “Anastasia”
“Nights in Ballygran” & “Family Limitation”
"Paris Green” & “Return to Normalcy”

This freshman HBO series knocked it out of the park with its episode submissions. The first tape is amazingly strong, with the mesmerizing pilot and the show’s first great episode. Tape two features episodes five and six, which offer a terrific showcase for Kelly Macdonald’s Margaret. Tape three has episodes eleven and twelve, the season finale, which go out in true style and also feature Nelson’s terrifying water baptism. No show has dethroned “Mad Men” in three years, but this show did it pretty easily at the Golden Globes and the SAG Awards, so it has a good shot here too with these solid and smart picks.

DEXTER
"Circle Us" & "Take It!"
"Teenage Wasteland" & "In the Beginning"
"Hop a Freighter" & "The Big One"

This is the fourth consecutive nomination for “Dexter.” This year, the show submitted episodes seven through twelve, all of which are great and include two especially excellent episodes. The first tape involves extensive bonding and intelligence gathering done collectively by Lumen and Dexter, while the second tape dives full into the storyline as Jordan learns Dexter is on to him and explicitly tells him he knows. Tape three offered a thrilling wrap-up to the season, and while it’s not on par with last year’s shocker of a finale, it’s still pretty great. I do think that many thought season five was inferior to season four, so I can’t imagine this show could win this year.

FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS
"Fracture" & "Gut Check"
"Don't Go" & "The March"
"Texas Whatever" & "Always"

This is the only show that I don’t watch regularly nominated in this category, but I sat down and watched the final six installments of this oft-snubbed show and found myself quite impressed. It’s easy to become acclimated with the town of Dillon, Texas on this show that was finally nominated for the big award after being mostly sidelined for its first four years. As the show hurtles towards its finish, tape one mostly features Vince’s brash behavior, tape two follows Eric’s career debate and Tim’s release from prison, and tape three closes out the series as the teams merge, Matt returns, and Tami speaks up for herself. Taken together, it’s a strong set, and apart it’s effective as well. This is definitely the dark horse, but if it took this long to get nominated, I’m not sure it can muster a win.

GAME OF THRONES
“Winter is Coming” & “The Kingsroad”
“A Golden Crown” & “You Win or You Die”
“Baelor” & “Fire and Blood”

This second freshman HBO drama managed to secure a spot despite the fact that its best episodes were saved for the latter half of the season. Tape one features the pilot and the second installment, in which the visuals are striking but it’s still hard to get a grasp on just what’s going on in this universe. Tape two ups the ante considerably as two regal leaders of different stature – Viserys and Robert – both meet their ends. Tape three is the best, as Ned meets his end and Daenerys encounters a new beginning in the final two episodes of the season. This show could win later in its run, but I think it’s going to have to settle for technical recognition this year.

THE GOOD WIFE
"Double Jeopardy" & "VIP Treatment"
"Nine Hours" & "Real Deal"
"Great Firewall" & "In Sickness"

This show inarguably improved in its second season, and the selection of episodes is certainly eclectic. Tape one includes the second and fifth episodes, which feature a military case and a real-time-style superb installment. Tape two has episodes nine and thirteen, which tackle a high-stakes case and some serious office politics, plus the return of Michael J. Fox. Tape three, episodes sixteen and twenty-one, features Childs’ defeat, the partner vote, and Alicia confronting both Peter and Kalinda. The last time a procedural law show won this award was back in 1999, so it has some serious cable competition, but it will definitely garner some votes and is probably in third place.

MAD MEN
"Public Relations" & "The Chrysanthemum and the Sword"
"Waldorf Stories" & "The Suitcase"
"The Beautiful Girls" & "Blowing Smoke"

This is the fourth consecutive nomination for this undefeated series. Tape one features the season premiere and some trickery from Don, plus a bit of Sally craziness. I have to say that tapes two and three are almost unbeatable. The sixth episode flashes back to a younger Don as he earns commendation in the present, while the intimate, beloved seventh episode is likely going to win Jon Hamm and Elisabeth Moss Emmys this year. Tape three features the death of Miss Blankenship and a shocking business change, and both episodes earn an A- from me. This show is going to be hard to take down for sure.

What should win (based on entire season): “Mad Men”
What should win (based on individual episodes): “Mad Men”
What will win: It’s the toughest race in a long time between defending champ “Mad Men” and newcomer “Boardwalk Empire,” and I’m going to give the edge to the incumbent “Mad Men.”

Next up: Best Comedy Series