Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Edie Falco as Jackie Peyton, Nurse Jackie (Rat Falls)
Last year’s winner is back without her show as a nominee in the Best Comedy Series category. The pilot was a fresh take on an intriguing, complicated character, whereas this episode, already three seasons in, feels far more relaxed and less productive. It’s not a terribly good showcase for her, as she’s mainly grumpy and not as entertaining as she was in the pilot. I can’t imagine she’ll repeat.

Tina Fey as Liz Lemon, 30 Rock (Double-Edged Sword)
This is Fey’s fifth consecutive nomination. She won on her second, and her show is still as popular as ever. She also wisely submitted the best episode of the season, which gives her hilarious material to work with as she tries to spend more time with her pilot boyfriend by flying with him. It’s a superb showcase, though Fey has already had her time in the sun, and this isn’t a year for her to win again.

Laura Linney as Cathy Jamison, The Big C (Pilot)
Linney has two different bits of history on her side: this award has gone to freshman Showtime stars the past two years, and Linney has won Emmys on all three occasions that she’s been nominated in the past. Submitting the pilot makes her accessible and relatable, and unless voters want something more tangibly funny, she’s going to take this award home.

Melissa McCarthy as Molly Flynn, Mike & Molly (First Date)
McCarthy earns her first Emmy nomination after plenty of years of supporting, scene-stealing work for the lead role in this CBS comedy. She submitted the second episode, in which she tries to mask the symptoms of a cold and ends up high on medicine while on her first date with Mike. It’s good bait, but I don’t think she’s going to pull of a win.

Martha Plimpton as Virginia Chance, Raising Hope (Say Cheese)
This is Plimpton’s second Emmy nod after a mention for an SVU guest spot in 2002. Plimpton is front and center in her submitted episode, as her son recalls her zaniness in organizing family photos each year. It’s a wild and committed performance, and Plimpton likely has her fans, thought it probably won’t be enough to muster a victory.

Amy Poehler as Leslie Knope, Parks & Recreation (Flu Season)
Poehler earns her second nod as her show makes the Best Comedy Series list this year. She submitted a spectacular episode, in which she comes down with the flu but is determined to get back to work. It’s certainly the most hilarious performance in this category, and if there’s anyone that can take down Linney, it’s her.

Who should win (based on entire season): Poehler
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Poehler
Who will win: Smart money is on Linney, but I’ll bet on an upset by Poehler.

Next up: Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series