Emmy Musings: Best Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Now that the 2012-2013 TV season is officially over, it’s hardly too early to start thinking about the Emmy nominations, which will be announced in July. Consider these preliminary thoughts rather than official predictions – look for those at the beginning of July. As always, chime in with your reactions and predictions in the comments, and don’t hesitate to let me know if I left any strong contenders off the list!

Last year’s eligible nominees:
Hugh Bonneville (Downton Abbey)
Last year, this extraordinarily popular show dominated the acting nominations. Though he is the show’s star, Bonneville is far from its showiest player, and he could easily be left off the list if voters aren’t as enthusiastic about the British import anymore. He’s still a good bet to return though consider the show continues to beloved, so don’t count him out just yet.

Steve Buscemi (Boardwalk Empire)
It aired a while ago, but this show’s third season was its best yet. It’s no longer the hot new series it used to be – Buscemi lost the SAG award he won two years in a row to Bryan Cranston, and the show lost to “Downton Abbey” – but that doesn’t mean he’ll miss out on a nomination since he’s an acclaimed star on a quality show on one of Emmy’s favorite networks. He’s not a lock, but he’s pretty likely.

Bryan Cranston (Breaking Bad)
Cranston won this award for the first three years of this show, and then returned with a nomination last year for the show’s fourth season after it took a calendar year off the air. Cranston picked up his first SAG trophy for his work on the first half of the show’s fifth season, and the fact that the series finale of the show airs just one week after the Emmy ceremony means that promos for the show’s highly anticipated last eight episodes will be airing just in time for Cranston to establish himself as this year’s likely frontrunner to take home his fourth Emmy.

Michael C. Hall (Dexter)
Most were surprised that Hall made the cut last year after his show fell out of favor with voters, but it’s coming off of its best season in a while as it heads into its final year, which begins just as Emmy voting really kicks into high gear. It’s probably time for voters to let Hall go, especially with new contenders in the mix. His chances are slim but still possible given the fact that he was once truly beloved, particularly during the show’s fourth season when he picked up a Golden Globe and a SAG award.

Jon Hamm (Mad Men)
It’s crazy to think that Hamm has yet to win an Emmy, along with every other actor from his show. After the show lost the Best Drama Series award for the first time last year, it was dropped from the corresponding Golden Globe category altogether. Hamm managed to retain his spot, however, and I don’t see him being left out of the race this year since the show is still strong.

Damian Lewis (Homeland)
Last year’s winner had an excellent if potentially divisive second year on his show, and, unless voters aren’t happy with how season two went, he’ll be back again. Lewis took home a Golden Globe for his performance in the show’s second season, which suggests that at least someone liked him enough to reward him again. I suspect he’ll be in the lineup again even if he doesn’t win a second time.

Past nominees:
Timothy Olyphant (Justified)
It’s a shame that this great actor didn’t get nominated for his show’s third season after picking up a nomination for its second. That will make it especially difficult for him to return to the race this year. The fact that he wasn’t front and center in his own show for a good portion of the season also doesn’t help matters, so don’t expect this to be the year that he earns his spot back.

New contenders:
Hugh Dancy and Mads Mikkelsen (Hannibal)
NBC opted not to decide right away about whether or not it wanted to renew its update of the Hannibal Lecter saga, and voters may be equally unsure of whether they want to reward this take on the famous character whose previous cinematic version won a handful of Oscars two decades ago. Its two stars might cancel each other out, but its possible that one or both could make the cut if voters indulge their appetites for this show.

Jeff Daniels (The Newsroom)
It feels like forever ago that Aaron Sorkin’s masterful and sometimes controversial take on reporting the news aired. SAG voters opted not to reward the ensemble but singled out Daniels, which suggests that he’ll be able to make it in even if his show doesn’t get the same reception. This will be his first foray into Emmy territory, but given how much voters used to like Sorkin, I’d say that he might even be able to win if the show proves memorable enough from last summer.

Jonny Lee Miller (Elementary)
It may get the most viewers, but CBS doesn’t tend to earn much Emmy attention these days. That’s too bad, considering Miller turns in one of the most consistently excellent performances week after week as the legendary detective. Other versions of the classic character, portrayed by Benedict Cumberbatch and Robert Downey Jr., have earned Emmy and Golden Globe nominations recently, so why couldn’t Miler? His snub for his great work in season five of the Emmy-friendly “Dexter” suggests his chances are slim.

Matthew Rhys (The Americans) Rhys has a lead role in one of the season’s most acclaimed new series. Emmy voters, however, aren’t always into equal opportunity, and I suspect that Keri Russell may get the bulk of the love for FX’s spy show. Rhys never managed an Emmy nomination while other members of the “Brothers and Sisters” cast did, and he may end up in that familiar situation this year.

Kevin Spacey (House of Cards)
It’s difficult to predict how Netflix original programming will be received by Emmy voters. “Arrested Development” has a substantial advantage over this show, which, despite being based on a British miniseries that won an Emmy two decades ago, may not earn any Emmy traction. Spacey was a nominee in 2008 for “Recount,” but a good Emmy track record couldn’t help Kelsey Grammer get nominated for a similar role on an untested network last year, so it’s unclear what will happen.