Emmy Awards: The Morning After

I didn’t get a chance to post reactions after the show last night, so here goes. I miss the days that awards shows used to have clips galore and really get excited about the shows or movies or whatever that were nominated. In an effort to keep the show to a strict three hours, there wasn’t a single montage, and even the tribute to Robin Williams was unexpectedly short. They asked comedy stars what the best direction they got was, but that was the only time that the nominees were announced in a creative way. The funniest part was inarguably the Billy Eichner and Seth Meyers clip featuring a laugh-out-loud moment when a woman answered unintelligibly about the name of the awards show. Weird Al’s main title theme music with words bit was fun, but hardly as funny as it should have been.

And then, there were the winners. I correctly predicted a dismal four wins, three of which were in top categories – “Breaking Bad” for Best Drama Series, “Fargo” for Best Miniseries, and “The Normal Heart” for Best TV Movie – and the fourth of which was Allison Janney for “Mom.” I’m more disappointed in the winners than in my predictions, namely because Janney was the only series winner who hadn’t won before for her show, and she already has five Emmys. Giving Cranston his fourth trophy, Margulies her second (for this role), Paul his third, Gunn her second, Parsons his fourth, Louis-Dreyfus her third, and Burrell his second suggests that there is nothing creative or new about the Emmys. It doesn’t matter that other actors had better submissions since clearly the favorites always win. Somewhat along the same lines, the miniseries and TV movie acting prizes went to stars of projects that have been nominated before, “Sherlock” and “American Horror Story.” I’m not arguing that they’re not deserving, and it’s more exciting to see Benedict Cumberbatch and Martin Freeman take home Emmys even if they couldn’t be there to accept them, but it’s strange that these standalone categories still have repeat nominees. “Fargo” was probably the best thing on television this past year, but “True Detective” will be back in the same format next year, so why are they in different categories? That’s a whole separate mess.

As always, I conclude that I like the nominations process more, predicting the nominees, watching the announcement, and then screening all the episodes submitted. Maybe it doesn’t matter to voters which episodes were picked, but that’s still what gets me most excited about the Emmys.

In more satisfying news (for me, at least), the 8th Annual AFT Awards, my own choices for the best in television this past season, will begin in September when I take some time off to get married! Stay tuned, and then get ready for what’s sure to be an exciting pilot season! Thanks for reading!

Final Emmy Winner Predictions

For some unknown reason, the Emmy Awards air tonight (Monday) as opposed to last night (Sunday). I prefer keeping the ceremony on the weekend, but I suppose it’s all the same. I’m already 2/4, correctly predicting Allison Janney and Uzo Aduba but missing Joe Morton and Jimmy Fallon in favor of David Morse and Bob Newhart. Now, the questions are whether “Breaking Bad” will be edged out by “True Detective,” and if “Modern Family” can be finally be taken down by “Orange is the New Black.” Plenty of these categories will be extremely competitive, and I’m honestly not sure what’s going to happen. I’m hopeful that it won’t just be a boring repeat of the past but rather that there will be a lot of creativity and first-time wins this year. I’m excited for the show, and will post some brief reactions either immediately afterwards or the next morning. Enjoy the show, and leave your thoughts in the comments! For detailed predictions in all applicable categories, click on the hyperlinked category name.

No guts, no glory:
William H. Macy for Best Comedy Actor

DRAMA SERIES:
Breaking Bad

DRAMA LEAD ACTOR:
Matthew McConaughey (True Detective)

DRAMA LEAD ACTRESS:
Robin Wright (House of Cards)

DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Josh Charles (The Good Wife)

DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Joanne Froggatt (Downton Abbey)

DRAMA DIRECTING:
Felina (Breaking Bad)

DRAMA WRITING:
The Secret Fate of All Life (True Detective)

COMEDY SERIES:
Orange is the New Black

COMEDY LEAD ACTOR:
Ricky Gervais (Derek)

COMEDY LEAD ACTRESS:
Amy Poehler (Parks and Recreation)

COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Andre Braugher (Brooklyn Nine-Nine)

COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Allison Janney (Mom)

COMEDY DIRECTING:
Lesbian Request Denied (Orange is the New Black)

COMEDY WRITING:
Special Relationship (Veep)

MINISERIES:
Fargo

MADE FOR TV MOVIE:
The Normal Heart

MOVIE/MINI LEAD ACTOR:
Billy Bob Thornton (Fargo)

MOVIE/MINI LEAD ACTRESS:
Cicely Tyson (The Trip to Bountiful)

MOVIE/MINI SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Matthew Bomer (The Normal Heart)

MOVIE/MINI SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Allison Tolman (Fargo)

MOVIE/MINI DIRECTING:
Fargo (The Crocodile Dilemma)

MOVIE/MINI WRITING:
The Normal Heart

VARIETY SERIES:
The Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon

REALITY/COMPETITION PROGRAM:
The Voice

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Comedy Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of major spoilers for listed episodes.

THE BIG BANG THEORY
DVD A - "The Proton Transmogrification" and "The Status Quo Combustion"
DVD B - "The Scavenger Vortex" and "The Romance Resonance"
DVD C - "The Convention Conundrum" and "The Locomotive Manipulation"

I don’t watch this show regularly, but I always look forward to watching the submitted episodes in advance of Emmy night. I enjoyed all of these episodes just as I expected too. DVD A contains two rather dramatic episodes, featuring Sheldon’s difficulty in dealing with the death of an old friend and an uncertain future in the season finale. DVD B includes a scavenger hunt and Sheldon being even more insufferable than usual after a major breakthrough. DVD C features a Comic-Con deliberation and a miserable train ride with an all-too-excited Sheldon. They’re all fun pairings, and I think voters will enjoy them just as much as they always do.

LOUIE
DVD A - "Back" and "Elevator 6"
DVD B - "Pamela 2" and "Pamela 3"
DVD C - "In the Woods 1" and "In the Woods 2"

This show is back for a second nomination, and it’s always one of the most alluring, peculiar experiences to watch this show around Emmy time each year. Mainly, it’s hard to digest this show as a comedy. There’s definitely something interesting about it, but I’m not sure it’s overall more funny than deeply haunting. DVD A features a relatively light introduction to the season and then an intense episode following Louie trying to save his family from a hurricane. DVD B contains the last two episodes of the season in which Louie tries to woo Pamela. DVD C is especially harrowing, with flashbacks to Louie’s difficult past prompted by him catching his daughter smoking marijuana. I just don’t see how this show wins Best Comedy Series even if some consider it to be the best series.

MODERN FAMILY
DVD A - "First Days" and "The Wedding, Part 2"
DVD B - "Three Dinners" and "Las Vegas"
DVD C - "Old Man and the Tree" and "Under Pressure"

This show has won this award for four years running, and no one would be surprised if it took home a fifth. That said, I think this is the year that it might actually be unseated. The only episode of these six that I actually liked was the season’s second episode, “First Days.” The rest are all not the best the show has to offer, and at worst overly choreographed. I think this is it for this show and, barring a vote split, this show won’t take home the Emmy again.

ORANGE IS THE NEW BLACK
DVD A - "Tit Punch" and "The Chickening"
DVD B - "WAC Pack" and "xxxxsgiving"
DVD C - "Tall Men With Feelings" and "Can't Fix Crazy"

This Netflix show scored a bunch of major nominations, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if it won this award. It is worth pointing out that while shows like “Nurse Jackie,” “Entourage,” and “Desperate Housewives” have been nominated in the past, none of them have won, but maybe this show can change that. Interestingly, these submissions don’t include the pilot, but skew more towards the end of the season and some dramatic plotlines. It’s just hard to know if voters will like this show or not enough to hand it the Best Comedy Series prize.

SILICON VALLEY
DVD A - "Minimum Viable Product" and "The Cap Table"
DVD B - "Signaling Risk" and "Third Party Insourcing"
DVD C - "Proof of Concept" and "Optimal Tip-to-Tip Efficiency"

Good for this show for making it into this race. It’s an odd, eccentric series that will likely only get better with time. With only seven episodes to choose from, these submissions leave out the third and fourth episodes. DVD A is the weakest since it contains the show’s first two episodes when it was still finding its footing. DVD B is when I got hooked, featuring the logo debacle and the Carver. DVD C includes the final two episodes of the season which are clever and satisfying. The main thing stopping this show from a win is the historical statistic – which I haven’t been able to confirm for all history but at least for the past thirty or so years – that no show without any acting nominees has taken home this award.

VEEP
DVD A - "Some New Beginnings" and "The Choice"
DVD B - "Alicia" and "Fishing"
DVD C - "Special Relationship" and "Debate"

It’s great to see this show, which is now considered a bona fide hit, nominated for its very entertaining third season. The presidential campaign turned out to be quite a strong source of comedy in season three, and, interestingly, this show opted not to submit its hilarious final two episodes, instead picking episodes mostly from the beginning of the season. Each tape has Selina fighting hard against her opponents, and I think all of them would easily impress voters, and maybe this show could finally unseat “Modern Family.”

What should win (based on entire season): “Veep” or “Orange is the New Black”
What should win (based on individual episodes): “Veep”
What will win: Can anything beat “Modern Family”? I say yes, but I can’t decide between “Veep” and “Orange is the New Black.” I’ll opt timidly for the latter.

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Drama Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of major spoilers for listed episodes.

BREAKING BAD
DVD A - "Confessions" and "Rabid Dog"
DVD B - "To'hajiilee" and "Ozymandias"
DVD C - "Granite State" and "Felina"

I predicted this show to win three times before, and last year, it finally did. Were it not for “True Detective,” this show would have it in the bag, and it still might. Having aired almost a full year ago shouldn’t do it much of a disservice, and it has the advantage of being able to submit three-quarters of its final half-season. The first two episodes are left out so that the hours in which things get even more intense (full measures, so to speak), and it’s quite a selection. Each DVD is composed of consecutive episodes, and I think the world is obsessed enough with this departed show that any viewer will find this show to be worth voting for enthusiastically.

DOWNTON ABBEY
DVD A - "Episode 4.1" (two hours)
DVD B - "Episode 4.2" and "Episode 4.3"
DVD C - "Episode 4.8" (two hours)


This show is here for its third eligible time after winning the Best Miniseries award for season one. Its submitted episodes are the first three installments of the season and the last one. This show always goes all out at the beginning and end of its seasons, and so that should serve it well. I don’t think this show is nearly as hot as it used to be, and I think its end would have to be announced before this show took home this award.

GAME OF THRONES
DVD A - "The Lion and the Rose" and "Breaker of Chains"
DVD B - "First of His Name" and "The Laws and God and Man"
DVD C - "The Watchers on the Wall" and "The Children"

This is the fourth nomination for this show, which continues to go strong and earn positive mentions from critics and viewers alike. Its episode selections are the most deliberate of any of the shows in this category. DVD A is from the start of the season when a major regal event occurs, DVD B checks in a few episodes later midway through Tyrion’s trial, and DVD C features the eventful closing developments of the season. This show has a better shot than last year, but I’m not sure it can eclipse the other series in this race.

HOUSE OF CARDS
DVD A - "Chapter 14" and "Chapter 15"
DVD B - "Chapter 16" and "Chapter 17"
DVD C - "Chapter 22" and "Chapter 26"

This show returns for its second season after being nominated last year. What’s interesting about the episodes submitted are that they largely favor the beginning of the season, with the third DVD choosing a particularly strong episode that spells distress for Adam and Freddy, among others, and the game-changing season finale. The first four episodes of the season, on the first two DVDs, are all strong, and this show might have had a shot if this wasn’t a two-show race.

MAD MEN
DVD A - "Time Zones" and "A Day's Work"
DVD B - "Field Trip" and "The Monolith"
DVD C - "The Strategy" and "Waterloo"

With just seven episodes to select from this year, only one installment – the fifth, “The Runaways” – had to be left out. Though this show is still good, it’s not as excellent as it used to be, and Emmy voters are definitely aware of that. This show took home this trophy four years in a row and has been nominated twice since this then. Submitting consecutive episodes on each tape at least preserves plot continuity, but this show doesn’t have a shot this year.

TRUE DETECTIVE
DVD A - "The Long Bright Dark" and "Seeing Things"
DVD B - "The Locked Room" and "Who Goes There"
DVD C - "Secret Fate of All Life" and "After You've Gone"

This was the one show in this category that I hadn’t watched after deciding that the pilot was too slow-paced, and I watched the whole thing to be as well-prepared as possible for my Emmy predictions. It turns out that this series was quite good, and got better as it built from the premiere. I don’t understand why it’s here when “Fargo” and “American Horror Story” are considered miniseries, but that’s a bigger conversation. Very interestingly, this show omits its finale from its selections as well as the sixth episode, “Haunted House.” I was hooked by the end of episode two, so I think that each of these tapes should do pretty well to convince voters of the show’s quality. Now, can it beat “Breaking Bad”?

What should win (based on entire season): “Breaking Bad”
What should win (based on individual episodes): “Breaking Bad” or “True Detective”
What will win: It could be either a departing immensely popular show – “Breaking Bad” - or a hot new one – “True Detective.” I’ll put my money on the former to repeat.

Next up: Best Comedy Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Writing for a Comedy Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order by show. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

David Crane and Jeffrey Klarik, Episodes (Episode 305)
Louis C.K., Louie (So Did the Fat Lady)
Liz Friedman and Jenji Kohan, Orange is the New Black (I Wasn’t Ready)
Alec Berg, Silicon Valley (Optimal Tip-to-Tip Efficiency)
Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, and Tony Roche, Veep (Special Relationship)

This category includes just one show not nominated for Best Comedy Series, but fortunately, these are all pretty funny installments. C.K. is on his fourth consecutive nomination, and he won in 2012 for an episode of his current series. Crane and Klarik has been nominated three times now for penning their series. Pilots don’t always win this category as much as they do the directing prize, but I wouldn’t count out “I Wasn’t Ready.” It’s also possible that a great season one finale, “Optimal Tip-to-Tip Efficiency,” could prevail. But watch out also for “Special Relationship,” the first “Veep” episode nominated for writing.

What should win: All fine choices, truthfully.
What will win: It’s hard to know. I’ll pick “Special Relationship” but it could be any of them.

Next up: Best Drama Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Directing for a Comedy Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order by show. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Iain B. MacDonald, Episodes (Episode 309)
Paris Barclay, Glee (100)
Louis C.K., Louie (Elevator, Part 6)
Gail Mancuso, Modern Family (Vegas)
Jodie Foster, Orange is the New Black (Lesbian Request Denied)
Mike Judge, Silicon Valley (Minimal Viable Product)

Three of these nominees are returning from last year – Barclay, C.K., and Mancuso – each earning their third bids for directing their current shows. “Modern Family” has won this award three years in a row, and last year Mancuso took home the trophy. Five times in the past ten years, this award has gone to a pilot, which bodes well for “Silicon Valley,” though watch out for another freshman series, “Orange is the New Black.” Its third episode was helmed by a celebrity director, an occurrence much more often seen in the corresponding drama category. This is the first time that “Episodes” has been nominated in this category, for its third season finale, and it’s the only show recognized not nominated for Best Comedy Series (hardly a damning statistic) aside from “Glee,” which earns its fourth nomination in this category, which it won in 2010 for its pilot.

Pertaining to these specific episodes, I really didn’t like “Vegas,” which felt much too choreographed. Can “Modern Family” be dethroned in this race? “Lesbian Request Denied” is a strong episode, as is “Episode 309,” which wraps up a terrific season with unexpected developments. I didn’t yet love “Silicon Valley” based on its pilot, so I’m not sure voters will either. “100” is an episode that recalls much of the show’s former greatness, and so it might impress voters even though the show isn’t nominated in any other major category. “Elevator, Part 6” is a peculiar but fascinating episode of television, which mainly follows Louie as he tries to save his family from a hurricane. It’s hard to know how these vastly different episodes will be considered next to each other.

What should win: “Episode 309”
What will win: It might be C.K. or Mancuso again, but I’ll bet on Foster for “Lesbian Request Denied.”

Next up: Best Writing for a Comedy Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Writing for a Drama Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order by show. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Vince Gilligan, Breaking Bad (Felina)
Moira Walley-Beckett, Breaking Bad (Ozymandias)
David Benioff, D.B. Weiss, Game of Thrones (The Children)
Beau Willimon, House of Cards (Chapter 14)
Nic Pizzolatto, True Detective (The Secret Fate of All Life)

Most of these nominees are new this year, with the exception of Gilligan, who was nominated for an episode of “The X-Files” back in 1997, and Benioff and Weiss, who were recognized for season one and three episodes of their show. “Breaking Bad” has two episodes nominated for the second year in a row, one of which is the series finale. The season finale of “Game of Thrones” and the season finale of “House of Cards” are represented, as is the fifth episode of “True Detective,” which I found to be the best installment of that show.

What should win: “The Secret Fate of All Life” or “Ozymandias”
What will win: It could be either episode of “Breaking Bad,” but I’ll bet on ”The Secret Fate of All Life.”

Next up: Best Directing for a Comedy Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Directing for a Drama Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order by show. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Timothy Van Patten, Boardwalk Empire (Farewell Daddy Blues)
Vince Gilligan, Breaking Bad (Felina)
David Evans, Downton Abbey (Episode 1)
Neil Marshall, Game of Thrones (The Watchers on the Wall)
Carl Franklin, House of Cards (Chapter 14)
Cary Fukunaga, True Detective (Who Goes There)

For the third year in a row, we have the season finales of both “Boardwalk Empire” and “Breaking Bad.” The latter is also the series finale of that show. The eventful season premieres of both “Downton Abbey” and “House of Cards” are also here. The penultimate installment of “Game of Thrones,” which follows just one plotline, is recognized, as is the fourth episode of “True Detective,” which sees Rust going undercover for the duration of the hour. This is Van Patten’s eight nomination, and he won two years ago for “Boardwalk Empire.” This is Gilligan’s third nomination. The rest are all first-timers. All of these shows are nominated for Best Drama Series. The pilot of “House of Cards” won last year.

What should win: “Felina” or “Chapter 14”
What will win: It seems to me like “Felina” is a lock to win this.

Next up: Best Writing for a Drama Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Guest Actress in a Comedy Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Uzo Aduba as Suzanne “Crazy Eyes” Warren, Orange is the New Black (Lesbian Request Denied)
This is a great nomination, and Aduba easily has the showiest role of the three actresses from her show in this category. In her submitted episode, the show’s third, she is in full-on crazy mode, thinking that she and Piper are girlfriends and urinating on Piper’s floor. Aduba is an unknown actress but this role is undeniably fantastic, so I think she could well win this.

Laverne Cox as Sophia Burset, Orange is the New Black (Lesbian Request Denied)
Cox’s nomination is monumental since she’s the first openly transgender person to be recognized for acting, but it’s worth pointing out that her performance is actually quite good and deserves recognition on its own merit. In her submitted episode, the show’s third, flashbacks to how she got to prison, which involve her gender reassignment, effectively turn her into a very endearing character. Her performance is quieter than costar Aduba in the same episode, which may affect some votes.

Joan Cusack as Sheila Jackson, Shameless (Liver, I Hardly Knew Her)
I guess it’s no surprise that Cusack, who was nominated three years in a row as a “guest” on a “drama series,” would survive the show’s official switch from drama to comedy. Truth be told, Cusack is actually a better fit in this race than in the corresponding drama one, as evidenced by her dedicated, frenzied performance as Sheila, who in her submitted episode tries to save Frank with a black market liver transplant and then stages a last-minute wedding. She’s in good company with other crazy ladies, so I’m not sure she’ll stand out in this bunch.

Tina Fey as Various Characters, Saturday Night Live (Host: Tina Fey)
Fey has been nominated three times before for returning to her alma mater to host, and won back in 2009. Fey, who is extremely at home and at ease when she’s in front of the crowd on stage, starts off by talking about her least popular characters, and it’s refreshing to see that there’s not even a mention of Sarah Palin, demonstrating her ability to keep up with the times and energy to be newly creative. She could easily win again.

Natasha Lyonne as Nicky Nichols, Orange is the New Black (WAC Pack)
I’m very glad to see Lyonne here, recognized with her first-ever Emmy nomination. Though I consider her to be a supporting cast member, I guess Emmy voters see her as a guest. Her submitted episode, the show’s sixth, features flashbacks to her drug addict past, which, while effective, don’t paint as much of a picture of the affable, promiscuous character she usually is. I can’t imagine her getting votes over her costars in this category.

Melissa McCarthy as Various Characters, Saturday Night Live (Host: Melissa McCarthy)
McCarthy is on her third nominations both in this category and in the lead actress race for “Mike and Molly.” She’s relatively entertaining hosting for the third time, but each of her characters is pretty much a deviation of the same mold: very loud, physical, and violently-inclined. It doesn’t suggest much effort or range on her part, so I don’t see voters being impressed enough to give her an Emmy.

Who should win (based on entire season): N/A
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Aduba
Who will win: I’m going with Aduba, though it could easily be Fey or Cusack too.

Next up: Best Directing for a Drama Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Guest Actor in a Comedy Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Steve Buscemi as Marty, Portlandia (Celery)
Buscemi was nominated in this category in 2008 for a small guest spot on “30 Rock.” I’m pleased to report that this nominated is far more deserved since it gives him the opportunity to be at his best, perfectly embodying someone in charge of celery trying to figure out how to get back on top by properly marketing his product. It’s hard to describe just how well Steve inhabits Marty, and he makes this otherwise forgettable, strange character well worth remembering.

Louis C.K. as Various Characters, Saturday Night Live (Host: Louis C.K.)
C.K. was nominated for hosting last year, and now he’s back for a second round that demonstrates that he’s really comfortable being around the rest of the cast and up for pretty much anything during the skits, not afraid to try new things and expand his repertoire. C.K. delivers a great extended opening monologue and then is very present in all the skits. I think he’ll win for “Louie” this year, and so I’m not sure he’ll win here, but I’d be happy if he did.

Gary Cole as Kent Davison, Veep (Crate)
I’m so thrilled that Cole is recognized here for a truly terrific and eternally sarcastic performance. I was so happy that he got nominated, and I’d love to see him win for the episode in which he conceives of the crate for Selina to stand on before delivering some life-changing news at the end of the episode. I’m enthusiastic about this show’s chances, and I think Cole might actually be able to win.

Jimmy Fallon as Various Characters, Saturday Night Live (Host: Jimmy Fallon)
Fallon was nominated for this hosting gig back in 2012 and ended up winning. Now, the actor is the host of The Tonight Show, which is a really big deal. He’s clearly comfortable hosting a show he used to be on, but he’s also visibly laughing during terrible impression of Jim Parsons while Justin Timberlake is doing an impression of him, which is difficult to unpack. I think it speaks to his popularity, and the fact that he’d probably win even if he didn’t do much in his guest spot. He’s not terrible, he’s just certainly not the best in this category.

Nathan Lane as Pepper Saltzman, Modern Family (The Wedding, Part 2)
This is Lane’s third nomination for this role and his second consecutive mention. In his submitted episode, Pepper deals with unforeseen developments during Cam and Mitchell’s weddings. His antics are familiar and expected, and while he’s somewhat entertaining, it’s hardly an award-worthy role. I doubt he’ll stand out in this bunch anyway.

Bob Newhart as Arthur Jeffries, The Big Bang Theory (The Proton Transmogrification)
Newhart won his first Emmy last year at the age of 84, and now he’s back after his character passes away and reappears to Sheldon as his Obi-Wan on Star Wars day. It’s a very funny, sentimental role, and I see no reason why he wouldn’t win again since it’s a genuinely entertaining and strong performance.

Who should win (based on entire season): N/A
Who will win (based on individual episodes): Buscemi or Cole, though C.K. and Newhart are great too
Who will win: I’d pick Newhart to edge out Fallon.

Next up: Best Guest Actress in a Comedy Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Guest Actress in a Drama Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Kate Burton as Vice President Sally Langston, Scandal (A Door Marked Exit)
Burton was previously nominated in this category in 2006 and 2007 for “Grey’s Anatomy.” Now, she’s back as the heavily Christian, Southern Vice-President of the United States, who is having a tough time in her submitted episode after making a deadly mistake. She’s certainly committed to this performance, but it’s a pretty over-the-top, deranged turn that I don’t expect will win over enough voters.

Jane Fonda as Leona Lansing, The Newsroom (Red Team III)
Fonda is back after being nominated for this role last year. I wrote in my review of this episode that Fonda “stopped by to chew some scenery,” which is definitely true of her emphatic and entertaining scene. Big-name actors have won this award with less, and so Fonda is definitely in the running if voters want to honor her.

Allison Janney as Margaret Scully, Masters of Sex (Brave New World)
Janney is no stranger to the Emmy Awards, having taken home four trophies out of six previous nominations. She’s also recognized this year as a nominee for her work in “Mom.” She has a dynamite submission in this category, as her relatively repressed character finally steps out of her shell as she is told that she’s not the right fit for a sex study but finds fulfillment elsewhere. I think she’s the firm frontrunner.

Kate Mara as Zoe Barnes, House of Cards (Chapter 14)
Mara was snubbed last year in the supporting race for her performance as a nosy journalist who realized she had to sleep her way to a good story, and it’s fitting that she’s recognized for the one episode in which she did appear this season. While it would be great to see her rewarded with a win, overdue nominations based on lesser material like this rarely ever result in deserved victory.

Margo Martindale as Claudia, The Americans (Behind the Red Door)
Martindale won an Emmy in 2011 for her work on “Justified” and was nominated for this role last year. This is one show I’ve checked into only to see Martindale’s performance come Emmy time, and while she’s certainly good, I think seeing more of her role might be necessary to fully appreciate her talent. Her submitted episode finds her acting scared, which we’re told is rare but don’t have the opportunity to truly understand or know based on her very limited screen time.

Diana Rigg as Olenna Tyrell, Game of Thrones (The Lion and the Rose)
This is Rigg’s seventh career Emmy nomination and her second for this role. She has won once before, for her performance in “Rebecca” in 1997. Rigg has a fabulous recurring role on her show, though her submitted episode, which features the Purple Wedding, doesn’t give her too much screen time. She does make the most of her scenes with Tywin and Sansa, but it’s not enough for a win.

Who should win (based on entire season): N/A
Who will win (based on individual episodes): Janney or Mara
Who will win: I think Janney has this in the bag.

Next up: Best Guest Actor in a Comedy Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Guest Actor in a Drama Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Dylan Baker as Colin Sweeney, The Good Wife (Tying the Knot)
This is Baker’s third nomination for this role – he has been recognized every other year since this show began. Baker’s character at this point has become rather repetitive, constantly on trial for murdering his wife, but I don’t think that’s much of an issue since he still manages to chew plenty of scenery. He’s the only actor from his show nominated in this category for the first time, but I still don’t think that will enable him to score the win.

Beau Bridges as Barton Scully, Masters of Sex (Manhigh)
This is Bridges’ fourteenth Emmy nomination. He has won three times, last in 1997, and this is his third nomination in this category in the past five years (each time for a different role). Bridges submitted the season finale, in which his character decides that he needs to take extreme measures to deal with his sexual orientation. Bridges was great throughout the season, but this episode may be a bit too somber for voters not familiar with the show. He may still win, though, so don’t count him out completely.

Reg E. Cathey as Freddy, House of Cards (Chapter 22)
It’s refreshing to see a hard-working actor like Cathey receive his first major awards nomination for a great recurring role that feels very natural. His submitted instalment was the obvious choice, the hour in which all of the attention his restaurant has gotten as a result of the profile that was written implodes and leaves him out in the cold. It’s a heartfelt, honest performance, and maybe Cathey could follow in the recent trend of lesser-known actors beating big names in this race.

Paul Giamatti as Harold Levinson, Downton Abbey (Downton Abbey)
I remember being excited when I heard that Giamatti was joining the cast of this show for season four, but then we only saw him in the finale for a few minutes. Still, I wrote in my review of the episode that his “every moment on screen was a scathing delight,” so I guess the episode left a good impression. He’s a respected actor who won an Emmy for his last historical venture, “John Adams,” so he might earn another trophy this year.

Robert Morse as Bertram Cooper, Mad Men (For Immediate Release)
Morse is a sporadic returning nominee, recognized for the first, third, fourth, sixth, and now seventh season of his show. He won an Emmy back in 1993 for his work on “American Playhouse.” It’s true that no “Mad Men” actor has ever won an Emmy despite a grand total of 31 nominations prior to this year, but I do think that Morse could be the first. In his final episode, Morse gets the chance to sing and dance in an odd but fitting farewell for his character. There’s stiff competition, but what better way to ensure that his series finally has an acting win?

Joe Morton as Eli Pope, Scandal (Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner)
This is Morton’s first Emmy nomination. He submitted the second episode of the season in which his character, Olivia Pope’s father, reconnects with his daughter as his dark past is revealed. It’s a meaty role to be sure, and Morton gives it his all, making Eli an intimidating and rather detestable father figure. He’s an underrewarded actor who has been working for a long time, so maybe he’ll win. Costar Dan Bucatinsky winning this award last year certainly helps.

Who should win (based on entire season): N/A
Who will win (based on individual episodes): Cathey
Who will win: My bet would be Morse, but it might also be Bridges or, honestly, any of these actors.

Next up: Best Guest Actress in a Drama Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Mayim Bialik as Amy Fowler, The Big Bang Theory (The Indecision Amalgamation)
This is Bialik’s third consecutive nomination. Her show seems to be doing just as strong as ever, and she has a fun installment for voters to view. Like almost everything related to her character, her submitted episode features her tending to Sheldon’s needs, which in this case relates to his inability to decide between an X-Box and a Playstation. It’s a funny showcase and a decent submission, though I don’t think it’s the only to give her the win.

Julie Bowen as Claire Dunphy, Modern Family (The Feud)
This is Bowen’s fifth nomination. She has won twice, in 2011 and 2012. She outlasted costar Sofia Vergara and is now the only representative from her show in this race. Bowen’s chances this year aren’t so great if they’re based purely on her submission, which finds her obsessively scratching her head because she unknowingly has lice. She may still be able to win based on voters having seen her in the past and liking her.

Anna Chlumsky as Amy Brookheimer, Veep (Detroit)
Chlumsky was a surprise nominee last year for her show, and this year she’s back again. In her submitted episode, she gets the chance to become campaign manager after a season of being sidelined. The trouble is that she’s such a great part of the ensemble that sometimes she doesn’t even get noticed, and I don’t see her being able to defeat any of the much showier actresses in this category.

Allison Janney as Bonnie, Mom (Estrogen and a Hearty Breakfast)
Janney is a very funny woman, but she’s never actually been nominated for a comedy performance before. That said, she does have four Emmy wins for “The West Wing” under her belt, and the way that she responds to relatively average material on her new CBS sitcom suggests that she is the frontrunner in this race. Dealing with menopause in the most uncensored fashion in her submitted episode only helps matters.

Kate McKinnon as Various Characters, Saturday Night Live (Host: Anna Kendrick)
McKinnon , who joined her show’s cast in 2012, is nominated for the first time this year. She’s the only regular member of the cast nominated this year, and would be the first to win if she did. In her submitted installment, she has the chance to play a variety of characters, demonstrating something that many cast members don’t usually have – range. She won an American Comedy Award this past spring, indicating that some people like here, though I don’t know if she’s big enough to score an Emmy just yet.

Kate Mulgrew as Galina “Red” Reznikov, Orange is the New Black (Tit Punch)
I like Mulgrew a lot from her “Star Trek: Voyager” days, and it’s great to see her on Netflix’s prison comedy as the Russian head of the kitchen with a very sympathetic backstory. Her submitted episode, the second installment of the series, doesn’t cast her in an endearing light, but she’s still terrific as she starts to starve out Piper when she insults her cooking. She’s a great veteran actress yet to be rewarded, and if she can beat Janney, she’ll be golden.

Who should win (based on entire season): Mulgrew
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Mulgrew or Chlumsky
Who will win: It might be Mulgrew, but I think Janney is leagues ahead.

Next up: Best Directing for a Drama Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Fred Armisen as Various Characters, Portlandia (Pull-Out King)
This is Armisen’s first acting bid after back-to-back writing bids for IFC’s variety series. With Bill Hader ineligible this year, he’s the lone variety player recognized in this race. Armisen is great in a number of different parts, including one role as a pregnant woman, but I don’t see viewers, most of who probably haven’t seen this show before, warming enough to give him an Emmy for this enjoyable but truly bizarre series.

Andre Braugher as Captain Ray Holt, Brooklyn Nine-Nine (Christmas)
Braugher is an Emmy veteran, scoring his eighth nomination this year after wins for “Thief” in 2006 and “Homicide: Life on the Street” in 1998. He’s due for a win this year if the eight-year gap continues This is actually his first fully comedic role, and as someone who gave up on the show a few episodes in because I just wasn’t into the show, I found this submitted episode to be the most enjoyable among all the episodes I sampled for my Emmy viewing. In it, Ray is forced to endure round-the-clock protection from Andy Samberg’s Jake. While Samberg is responsible for much of the humor, Braugher is terrific too, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he won.

Ty Burrell as Phil Dunphy, Modern Family (Spring-a-Ding Fling)
This is Burrell’s fifth nomination, and he won on his second try back in 2011. At that point, there were four members of his cast nominated, and now we’re down to two. In his submitted episode, Phil prepares to host a realtor event. While it’s entertaining, much of the comedy comes from what he sees rather than what he does. There’s a bit of physical comedy, which Burrell excels at, but this is hardly his best submission and isn’t likely to result in another win.

Adam Driver as Adam, Girls (Two Plane Rides)
Driver is back for his second consecutive nomination, though his show has disappeared from the Best Comedy Series lineup. Driver, who has been getting plenty of movie roles recently, spent the entire season pushing Hannah away as he became a bona fide actor, and the season finale sums up all of that up as he realizes he needs to move on apart. It’s not really a comedy performance, and therefore I don’t see Driver beating any of these five other legitimately funny men.

Jesse Tyler Ferguson as Mitchell Pritchett, Modern Family (Message Received)
This is Ferguson’s fifth consecutive nomination, and he’s managed to stick around while costars Eric Stonestreet and Ed O’Neill have been snubbed. He’s still up against costar Burrell this year. His submission is an interesting one, since it features some funny stuff related to his old comic book but also includes a dramatic moment with his father. This category tends to reward showier comedy, so I don’t think Ferguson will be the choice this year.

Tony Hale as Gary Walsh, Veep (Crate)
Hale, who won this award last year, developed a chronic shoulder pain due to his frequent bag-carrying and endured plenty of abuse from Selina throughout the season. In his submitted episode, he gets to revel in a delirious celebratory moment with Selina. I don’t think it will enable him to repeat, but he certainly could based on his performance throughout the season.

Who should win (based on entire season): Hale, Burrell, or Ferguson
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Braugher
Who will win: My bet is that Braugher takes it, but who knows?

Next up: Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Christine Baranski as Diane Lockhart, The Good Wife (The Last Call)
Baranski, who has been nominated five years in a row, chose the same episode as costar Julianna Margulies, which deals with the aftermath of a devastating and extremely transformative event in the history of the show. Diane responds initially by shutting down, which is a disconcerting sight, and then by employing her token shrewd nature with a shocking move. It’s a great showcase for her that might earn her her first Emmy since her first of fourteen nominations back in 1995.

Joanne Froggatt as Anna Bates, Downton Abbey (Episode 2)
Froggatt was nominated two years ago and now returns thanks to her affecting work in her disturbing plotline this season. Her episode features her character being raped by a visitor who initially seems friendly, and the beginnings of what ends up being a difficult journey back to some sort of normalcy. Anna has always been the most sympathetic character on her show, and this performance may just net her the win.

Anna Gunn as Skyler White, Breaking Bad (Ozymandias)
Gunn won this award last year, and it’s very possible she might win again for the final year of her show. Her submitted episode features her last half-decent interaction with Walt, which of course quickly turns sour as she realizes just who he is and tells him how she feels. There’s tough competition, but I think her show might sweep, and she could well be part of that again.

Lena Headey as Cersei Lannister, Game of Thrones (The Lion and the Rose)
Headey scored her first Emmy nomination for her complex performance of the increasingly evil Cersei on HBO’s fantasy series. In her submitted episode, Cersei reveals the lengths she will go to in order to be cruel before tragedy strikes and she truly has a reason to be vicious. It’s a formidable episode for her, and I wouldn’t be surprised if she rallied and managed to overtake her fellow nominees.

Christina Hendricks as Joan Holloway, Mad Men (The Strategy)
This is Hendrick’s fifth consecutive nomination for this role. Emmy voters’ regard for this show has clearly declined, and Hendricks is the only remaining regular cast member nominated aside from star Jon Hamm. Her submission finds her in a typically unfortunate situation but sees her standing up for herself and for her individuality. While it’s strong, there’s no way that this is the hour that wins it for her considering her past submissions.

Maggie Smith as Violet, Dowager Countess of Grantham, Downton Abbey (Episode 8)
Smith is on her fourth nomination for this role, and won this award for the show’s first two seasons. In the show’s fourth season finale, Violet helps her granddaughter Edith to get back on track following a life-changing development and has some lighter moments bickering with Shirley MacLaine’s Martha. She’s won before, so she could again, but I think her costar Froggatt is more likely this year.

Who should win (based on entire season): Headey
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Headey, Gunn, or Froggatt
Who will win: It’s a competitive year, and I’m torn between predicting Froggatt or Headey. It could also be Gunn or Baranski.

Next up: Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Jim Carter as Mr. Carson, Downton Abbey (Episode 1)
It’s hard to believe that Carter has now been nominated three years in a row, but it’s a credit to the actor for standing out in a large and talented ensemble. The two-hour season premiere isn’t the best showcase of Carter’s work this season, though it does feature Carson being both loyal to those he cares about and dealing the return of an old friend he doesn’t talk to anymore. He’s got the least meaty role in this category, so I don’t suspect he’ll earn too many votes.

Josh Charles as Will Gardner, The Good Wife (Hitting the Fan)
Charles, who was nominated once before in this category three years ago, exited his show this year. Before that, however, he turned in an incredible performance that started with this episode, in which he finds out that Alicia is leaving and goes ballistic. Seeing the anger boil in him based on her betrayal is incredible, and it’s a side of Will that’s absolutely incredible to watch. Maybe he could even win this thing.

Peter Dinklage as Tyrion Lannister, Game of Thrones (The Laws of God and Men)
Dinklage, who won an Emmy for the first season of his show, is back with his fourth nomination and his best shot at an Emmy since that first year. Tyrion delivers an incredible speech in the final scene of his submitted episode in which he takes down all those around him and expresses his frustrations at the world. He’s still the best performer in his show’s enormous ensemble, and I think Emmy voters are well aware of that.

Mandy Patinkin as Saul Berenson, Homeland (Geronition)
Patinkin is back after earning a nomination last year, and though the show’s quality severely decreased, Patinkin was actually just as good. His season-long struggle to maintain his job and do the right thing despite others around him doubting him was worthwhile to watch. He did, however, submit my least favorite episode of the season, in which he acts like a child to deceive a colleague. There’s no way he wins this year; maybe in the future if the show improves in season four and beyond.

Aaron Paul as Jesse Pinkman, Breaking Bad (Confessions)
This is Paul’s fifth consecutive nomination, and he has won twice for this role. For the final year of his show, Paul submitted a strong episode for Jesse in which he finally speaks his mind when he’s cornered about how Walt treats him. It’s a great showcase for Paul, who’s clearly an Emmy favorite; it’s just a question of whether he can beat the powerful actors with him in this category.

Jon Voight as Mickey Donovan, Ray Donovan (Fite Nite)
This is Voight’s third career nomination, following mentions for miniseries and TV movie work in 2006 and 2002. Now, he’s the lone representative for Showtime’s new series. Half of the nomination is the role and the other half is Voight himself, who does a great job of portraying the con man patriarch. In his submitted episode, Voight manages to turn the tables on his fate, and it’s a very compelling transformation that could net him a win.

Who should win (based on entire season): Charles, Voight, or Dinklage
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Charles or Dinklage
Who will win: It could really be anyone except for Carter or Patinkin. Optimistically, I’ll say Charles, but it might be Dinklage, which would be great too.

Next up: Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Lena Dunham as Hannah Horvath, Girls (Beach House)
Dunham is back for her third nomination, but this time she isn’t nominated for directing, writing, or Best Comedy Series. If she couldn’t before, there’s no way she can now. Her submitted episode is an episode that takes place outside of New York City where Hannah lets her selfishness out more than usual, a decent showcase of an entirely unlikeable character.

Edie Falco as Jackie Peyton, Nurse Jackie (Super Greens)
This is Falco’s twelfth career Emmy nomination and her fifth consecutive bid for this show. She won three times for “The Sopranos” and once for the freshman season of this show. Falco has managed to stick around despite her show and costar Merritt Wever being intermittently nominated. Her submitted episode features plenty of material, namely her daughter being arrested and the revelation of her ex-husband’s engagement, but it’s much more dramatic than comedic, so I don’t see her scoring a win this year.

Julia Louis-Dreyfus as Selina Meyer, Veep (Crate)
This is Louis-Dreyfus’ fifteenth career nomination, and she’s the two-time defending champion in this race. Her submission of the season’s penultimate episode is a great choice, featuring the visual gag of her standing on a very expensive crate and then her reaction to the unbelievable news that leads into the finale. While others could earn their first wins this year, Louis-Dreyfus could very easily repeat.

Melissa McCarthy as Molly Flynn, Mike and Molly (Mind Over Molly)
McCarthy is back as a nominee in this category after a win in 2011 and a nomination in 2012. She’s also up for the third consecutive time for hosting SNL. In her submitted episode, Molly goes to therapy and pretty much talks for the entire episode. She’s somewhat funny, but it’s hardly the comedic showcase that she usually has and probably won’t net her too many votes.

Amy Poehler as Leslie Knope, Parks & Recreation (Recall Vote)
This is Poehler’s fifth nomination, and sadly, she’s the only part of her show recognized. She won a Golden Globe this year, so maybe she could finally take home an Emmy, though it’s hard to see her unseating her good friend Louis-Dreyfus. Her episode is a knockout, featuring her being recalled and getting drunk before giving a solid speech, but she’s submitted episodes just as good in the past to no avail.

Taylor Schilling as Piper Chapman, Orange is the New Black (The Chickening)
Schilling is a first-time nominee, and she stands a much better chance in this race than she did as a drama nominee at the Golden Globes. It’s all a question of how Emmy voters will respond to this show, though I think that all the nominations suggest they like it. It’s not always easy to like Piper, and in her submitted episode, she gets entranced by the sight of a chicken in the yard. I think she has a decent shot, but I think her show will be rewarded elsewhere.

Who should win (based on entire season): Poehler, Louis-Dreyfus, or Schilling
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Poehler or Louis-Dreyfus
Who will win: I’ll bet on Poehler even though I’m sure it will end up being Louis-Dreyfus or Schilling.

Next up: Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Don Cheadle as Marty Kahn, House of Lies (Wreckage)
Cheadle is on his third nomination for playing the self-destructive management consultant who, in the season premiere of his show, is struggling to get a handle on finally having his own firm. If Cheadle couldn’t win for season one or two, I don’t see how he could now, and I think that another nomination is enough of a victory.

Louis C.K. as Louie, Louie (Model)
Without a comedy special this year, C.K.’s individual nominations total dropped from last year’s nine down to five, which is still pretty impressive. This is his fourth nomination for playing a fictionalized version of himself on his FX show. His selection of the episode in which he bombs at a comedy show and then ends up in bed with a model is actually a dynamite choice that might enable him to score his first acting win in a year with no clear frontrunner.

Ricky Gervais as Derek, Derek (Episode 2.6)
I deliberated about whether to watch the pilot of this Netflix series or go in blind, and I ultimately opted just to watch the second season finale. While it’s hard to get a grasp on just what the show is about, it’s clear that Gervais is doing something different than usual, and he’s actually pretty good at it. Going on a date and dealing with his father’s declining health are great fodder for a surprisingly tender performance. Just like with his last unexpected nomination in this category, I think Gervais is primed for the win.

Matt LeBlanc as Matt LeBlanc, Episodes (Episode 306)
I’m so thrilled that LeBlanc is back for his third nomination for his self-portrayal on Showtime’s terrific comedy series. LeBlanc’s episode submission is truly terrific, as he has the chance to sleep with his costar’s daughter, who just happens to have a certain “Friends” fetish. He also launches on a great tirade against British people. It would be great to see him win, but I’m skeptical about his chances.

William H. Macy as Frank Gallagher, Shameless (Lazarus)
I’ve been a proponent of Macy being recognized for his committed, deranged performance, and even though I think the show is now more of a drama than a comedy, I think it’s great that he finally got nominated. It might be hard to connect to Frank’s signature awfulness if you haven’t seen the whole show, but there’s no denying the emphasis Frank puts on his character’s words as he announces his latest cockroach-like triumph in the season finale. Macy isn’t likely to put another trophy next to his 2003 Emmy for “Door to Door” this year.

Jim Parsons as Sheldon Cooper, The Big Bang Theory (The Relationship Diremption)
This is Parsons’ sixth consecutive nomination. He has won three times, most recently last year, and is also nominated for TV movie “The Normal Heart” this year. In his submitted episode, Parsons realizes he may be in the wrong field, and his search for the right kind of science is truly entertaining. Parsons could easily repeat given the lack of a clear frontrunner.

Who should win (based on entire season): LeBlanc
Who should win (based on individual episodes): LeBlanc
Who will win: It could easily be C.K. for the first time or Parsons again, but I’ll bet on Gervais for the sneak attack again.

Next up: Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Lizzy Caplan as Virginia Johnson, Masters of Sex (Pilot)
It’s great to see Caplan, who I think was Emmy-worthy in guest spots on “New Girl” and “True Blood” and also probably on “Party Down,” earn her first-ever Emmy nomination for her portrayal of an intelligent, curious sex researcher way ahead of her time. She’s great in the series premiere; the only question is whether she can eclipse five better-known actors. Her show not being nominated anywhere else aside from the guest categories doesn’t help matters much.

Claire Danes as Carrie Mathison, Homeland (The Star)
Danes has won this award the past two years. She fared much better here than with the Golden Globes, where she had the same statistics and was then snubbed for the show’s less impressive third season. With her show omitted from the Best Drama Series race, Danes is back for a third shot for her emotional performance in the season finale, which is probably her best work all season. It’s possible she could repeat again, but I don’t see it given the backlash against the show.

Michelle Dockery as Mary Crawley, Downton Abbey (Episode 1)
This is Dockery’s third nomination, and she’s officially the only “lead” of her ensemble represented with Hugh Bonneville gone from the Best Actor race. Her submission this year may be her best yet, as she copes with a devastating loss and makes it very clear that she’s not going to be pushed aside because she’s a woman. She seems least likely to win from this group, but her episode choice is a good one that could garner some votes.

Julianna Margulies as Alicia Florrick, The Good Wife (The Last Call)
Margulies hasn’t had a terrific Emmy track record for this show – she lost the award for season one, won for season two, was nominated for season three, and then snubbed for season four. Fortunately, she’s back following a creative resurgence. Unfortunately, her submission is the deeply emotional episode following a major loss rather than the game-changing “Hitting the Fan” submitted by costar Josh Charles. She might still win since it’s hard not to find her performance powerful.

Kerry Washington as Olivia Pope, Scandal (The Fluffer)
This is Washington’s second nomination. In her submitted episode, she stands up to one of the men in her life by giving him a serious piece of her mind and makes an important decision regarding another which has extremely adverse effects. Washington is very popular and most people would likely be surprised that she doesn’t have an Emmy yet. I’m just not sure I see it happening, but I don’t think there would be too many objections if she won.

Robin Wright as Claire Underwood, House of Cards (Chapter 26)
Wright was nominated for this role last year, and won a Golden Globe in the interim. Claire doesn’t have as much of a showcase as her husband in the season finale, in which she sees the hard work she has put in have alternately adverse and productive effects. “Chapter 17,” where she admits to having been raped, would have been a much wiser choice. It seems that she is respected right now, however, and without Tatiana Maslany in this race, I think she’s the frontrunner in spite of her submission.

Who should win (based on entire season): Margulies or Caplan
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Caplan
Who will win: I’ll go with Wright, but it could be Washington or Margulies.

Next up: Best Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Bryan Cranston as Walter White, Breaking Bad (Ozymandias)
Cranston took this award home three years in a row and has been a nominee for the last two. He’s now up for his final shot, and I suspect his show is going to perform extremely well even though it signed off the air almost a full year ago. His submission is dynamite – not the series finale, but one of the season’s strongest episodes in which everything implodes for Walt and he expresses both true devastation and makes a regrettable impulse power decision. It’s pretty damn strong as a submission.

Jeff Daniels as Will McAvoy, The Newsroom (Election Night, Part 2)
I was floored when Daniels’ name was called last year since he was the only performer in this category whose show wasn’t nominated for Best Drama Series, which is the case again this year. Instead of the pilot, which let him give an epic Sorkin speech, he submitted the season finale, in which his character makes an unexpected romantic turnaround. He won last year, so who knows, but I don’t think this could score him a second trophy.

Jon Hamm as Don Draper, Mad Men (The Strategy)
I’ve written for the past few years that it’s hard to believe Hamm doesn’t have an Emmy yet, and it’s just as hard to imagine that he would finally win for the show’s seventh season. Hamm chose wisely from a field of seven episodes this year, selecting the hour in which Don actually changes as a person, deciding that his pride isn’t worth the impact it has on his work and making a true effort with Peggy. This show isn’t really in Emmy voters’ favor anymore, and I can’t see Hamm beating the other five powerhouses in this category.

Woody Harrelson as Marty Hart, True Detective (The Locked Room)
This is Harrelson’s seventh career Emmy nomination but his first foray into dramatic territory (most of those nominations were for “Cheers”). While Harrelson hasn’t gotten as much buzz for his show as his costar (read below), he’s actually just as good if not better. This episode especially underlines that, as Marty acts out his emotions when Rust mows his lawn and juggles his personal life in the poorest way. I don’t think he can eclipse his costar, but wouldn’t that be cool to see him rewarded for succeeding in a dramatic role like this?

Matthew McConaughey as Rust Cohle, True Detective (Form and Void)
This is McConaughey’s first Emmy nomination, but after this past year, he’s no stranger to awards following many wins, most notably a Golden Globe and Oscar, for his starring role in “Dallas Buyers Club.” This performance would be impressive even if McConaughey wasn’t hot right now. His submission of the season finale does give him plenty of material, though I think that if anyone hasn’t watched the entire season (I marathoned it for this purpose), it’s harder to connect with the long-haired present-day version of Rust than the quote-heavy younger version who could easily have won this with earlier episodes. It’s just a question of whether he can trounce Cranston.

Kevin Spacey as Frank Underwood, House of Cards (Chapter 26)
Spacey was nominated last year for his role as corrupt political player Frank. He submitted the pilot then and the season finale, in which everything he has worked for throughout the second season comes to marvelous fruition, now. It’s a tough field, and I thought Spacey would win last year. While it’s a good look at how determined and motivate Frank is, it doesn’t seem like the hour to push him through to the win.

Who should win (based on entire season): Pretty much anyone but Daniels
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Cranston, Hamm, Spacey, or Harrelson
Who will win: A dead heat between three-time winner Cranston and first-time nominee McConaughey. I give the edge to the latter.

Next up: Best Lead Actress in a Drama Series