Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.
Lizzy Caplan as Virginia Johnson, Masters of Sex (Pilot)
It’s great to see Caplan, who I think was Emmy-worthy in guest spots on “New Girl” and “True Blood” and also probably on “Party Down,” earn her first-ever Emmy nomination for her portrayal of an intelligent, curious sex researcher way ahead of her time. She’s great in the series premiere; the only question is whether she can eclipse five better-known actors. Her show not being nominated anywhere else aside from the guest categories doesn’t help matters much.
Claire Danes as Carrie Mathison, Homeland (The Star)
Danes has won this award the past two years. She fared much better here than with the Golden Globes, where she had the same statistics and was then snubbed for the show’s less impressive third season. With her show omitted from the Best Drama Series race, Danes is back for a third shot for her emotional performance in the season finale, which is probably her best work all season. It’s possible she could repeat again, but I don’t see it given the backlash against the show.
Michelle Dockery as Mary Crawley, Downton Abbey (Episode 1)
This is Dockery’s third nomination, and she’s officially the only “lead” of her ensemble represented with Hugh Bonneville gone from the Best Actor race. Her submission this year may be her best yet, as she copes with a devastating loss and makes it very clear that she’s not going to be pushed aside because she’s a woman. She seems least likely to win from this group, but her episode choice is a good one that could garner some votes.
Julianna Margulies as Alicia Florrick, The Good Wife (The Last Call)
Margulies hasn’t had a terrific Emmy track record for this show – she lost the award for season one, won for season two, was nominated for season three, and then snubbed for season four. Fortunately, she’s back following a creative resurgence. Unfortunately, her submission is the deeply emotional episode following a major loss rather than the game-changing “Hitting the Fan” submitted by costar Josh Charles. She might still win since it’s hard not to find her performance powerful.
Kerry Washington as Olivia Pope, Scandal (The Fluffer)
This is Washington’s second nomination. In her submitted episode, she stands up to one of the men in her life by giving him a serious piece of her mind and makes an important decision regarding another which has extremely adverse effects. Washington is very popular and most people would likely be surprised that she doesn’t have an Emmy yet. I’m just not sure I see it happening, but I don’t think there would be too many objections if she won.
Robin Wright as Claire Underwood, House of Cards (Chapter 26)
Wright was nominated for this role last year, and won a Golden Globe in the interim. Claire doesn’t have as much of a showcase as her husband in the season finale, in which she sees the hard work she has put in have alternately adverse and productive effects. “Chapter 17,” where she admits to having been raped, would have been a much wiser choice. It seems that she is respected right now, however, and without Tatiana Maslany in this race, I think she’s the frontrunner in spite of her submission.
Who should win (based on entire season): Margulies or Caplan
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Caplan
Who will win: I’ll go with Wright, but it could be Washington or Margulies.
Next up: Best Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
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