Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.
Jim Carter as Mr. Carson, Downton Abbey (Episode 1)
It’s hard to believe that Carter has now been nominated three years in a row, but it’s a credit to the actor for standing out in a large and talented ensemble. The two-hour season premiere isn’t the best showcase of Carter’s work this season, though it does feature Carson being both loyal to those he cares about and dealing the return of an old friend he doesn’t talk to anymore. He’s got the least meaty role in this category, so I don’t suspect he’ll earn too many votes.
Josh Charles as Will Gardner, The Good Wife (Hitting the Fan)
Charles, who was nominated once before in this category three years ago, exited his show this year. Before that, however, he turned in an incredible performance that started with this episode, in which he finds out that Alicia is leaving and goes ballistic. Seeing the anger boil in him based on her betrayal is incredible, and it’s a side of Will that’s absolutely incredible to watch. Maybe he could even win this thing.
Peter Dinklage as Tyrion Lannister, Game of Thrones (The Laws of God and Men)
Dinklage, who won an Emmy for the first season of his show, is back with his fourth nomination and his best shot at an Emmy since that first year. Tyrion delivers an incredible speech in the final scene of his submitted episode in which he takes down all those around him and expresses his frustrations at the world. He’s still the best performer in his show’s enormous ensemble, and I think Emmy voters are well aware of that.
Mandy Patinkin as Saul Berenson, Homeland (Geronition)
Patinkin is back after earning a nomination last year, and though the show’s quality severely decreased, Patinkin was actually just as good. His season-long struggle to maintain his job and do the right thing despite others around him doubting him was worthwhile to watch. He did, however, submit my least favorite episode of the season, in which he acts like a child to deceive a colleague. There’s no way he wins this year; maybe in the future if the show improves in season four and beyond.
Aaron Paul as Jesse Pinkman, Breaking Bad (Confessions)
This is Paul’s fifth consecutive nomination, and he has won twice for this role. For the final year of his show, Paul submitted a strong episode for Jesse in which he finally speaks his mind when he’s cornered about how Walt treats him. It’s a great showcase for Paul, who’s clearly an Emmy favorite; it’s just a question of whether he can beat the powerful actors with him in this category.
Jon Voight as Mickey Donovan, Ray Donovan (Fite Nite)
This is Voight’s third career nomination, following mentions for miniseries and TV movie work in 2006 and 2002. Now, he’s the lone representative for Showtime’s new series. Half of the nomination is the role and the other half is Voight himself, who does a great job of portraying the con man patriarch. In his submitted episode, Voight manages to turn the tables on his fate, and it’s a very compelling transformation that could net him a win.
Who should win (based on entire season): Charles, Voight, or Dinklage
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Charles or Dinklage
Who will win: It could really be anyone except for Carter or Patinkin. Optimistically, I’ll say Charles, but it might be Dinklage, which would be great too.
Next up: Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
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