Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.
Lena Dunham as Hannah Horvath, Girls (Beach House)
Dunham is back for her third nomination, but this time she isn’t nominated for directing, writing, or Best Comedy Series. If she couldn’t before, there’s no way she can now. Her submitted episode is an episode that takes place outside of New York City where Hannah lets her selfishness out more than usual, a decent showcase of an entirely unlikeable character.
Edie Falco as Jackie Peyton, Nurse Jackie (Super Greens)
This is Falco’s twelfth career Emmy nomination and her fifth consecutive bid for this show. She won three times for “The Sopranos” and once for the freshman season of this show. Falco has managed to stick around despite her show and costar Merritt Wever being intermittently nominated. Her submitted episode features plenty of material, namely her daughter being arrested and the revelation of her ex-husband’s engagement, but it’s much more dramatic than comedic, so I don’t see her scoring a win this year.
Julia Louis-Dreyfus as Selina Meyer, Veep (Crate)
This is Louis-Dreyfus’ fifteenth career nomination, and she’s the two-time defending champion in this race. Her submission of the season’s penultimate episode is a great choice, featuring the visual gag of her standing on a very expensive crate and then her reaction to the unbelievable news that leads into the finale. While others could earn their first wins this year, Louis-Dreyfus could very easily repeat.
Melissa McCarthy as Molly Flynn, Mike and Molly (Mind Over Molly)
McCarthy is back as a nominee in this category after a win in 2011 and a nomination in 2012. She’s also up for the third consecutive time for hosting SNL. In her submitted episode, Molly goes to therapy and pretty much talks for the entire episode. She’s somewhat funny, but it’s hardly the comedic showcase that she usually has and probably won’t net her too many votes.
Amy Poehler as Leslie Knope, Parks & Recreation (Recall Vote)
This is Poehler’s fifth nomination, and sadly, she’s the only part of her show recognized. She won a Golden Globe this year, so maybe she could finally take home an Emmy, though it’s hard to see her unseating her good friend Louis-Dreyfus. Her episode is a knockout, featuring her being recalled and getting drunk before giving a solid speech, but she’s submitted episodes just as good in the past to no avail.
Taylor Schilling as Piper Chapman, Orange is the New Black (The Chickening)
Schilling is a first-time nominee, and she stands a much better chance in this race than she did as a drama nominee at the Golden Globes. It’s all a question of how Emmy voters will respond to this show, though I think that all the nominations suggest they like it. It’s not always easy to like Piper, and in her submitted episode, she gets entranced by the sight of a chicken in the yard. I think she has a decent shot, but I think her show will be rewarded elsewhere.
Who should win (based on entire season): Poehler, Louis-Dreyfus, or Schilling
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Poehler or Louis-Dreyfus
Who will win: I’ll bet on Poehler even though I’m sure it will end up being Louis-Dreyfus or Schilling.
Next up: Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
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