Tuesday, August 12, 2014

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Lead Actor in a Comedy Series


Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Don Cheadle as Marty Kahn, House of Lies (Wreckage)
Cheadle is on his third nomination for playing the self-destructive management consultant who, in the season premiere of his show, is struggling to get a handle on finally having his own firm. If Cheadle couldn’t win for season one or two, I don’t see how he could now, and I think that another nomination is enough of a victory.

Louis C.K. as Louie, Louie (Model)
Without a comedy special this year, C.K.’s individual nominations total dropped from last year’s nine down to five, which is still pretty impressive. This is his fourth nomination for playing a fictionalized version of himself on his FX show. His selection of the episode in which he bombs at a comedy show and then ends up in bed with a model is actually a dynamite choice that might enable him to score his first acting win in a year with no clear frontrunner.

Ricky Gervais as Derek, Derek (Episode 2.6)
I deliberated about whether to watch the pilot of this Netflix series or go in blind, and I ultimately opted just to watch the second season finale. While it’s hard to get a grasp on just what the show is about, it’s clear that Gervais is doing something different than usual, and he’s actually pretty good at it. Going on a date and dealing with his father’s declining health are great fodder for a surprisingly tender performance. Just like with his last unexpected nomination in this category, I think Gervais is primed for the win.

Matt LeBlanc as Matt LeBlanc, Episodes (Episode 306)
I’m so thrilled that LeBlanc is back for his third nomination for his self-portrayal on Showtime’s terrific comedy series. LeBlanc’s episode submission is truly terrific, as he has the chance to sleep with his costar’s daughter, who just happens to have a certain “Friends” fetish. He also launches on a great tirade against British people. It would be great to see him win, but I’m skeptical about his chances.

William H. Macy as Frank Gallagher, Shameless (Lazarus)
I’ve been a proponent of Macy being recognized for his committed, deranged performance, and even though I think the show is now more of a drama than a comedy, I think it’s great that he finally got nominated. It might be hard to connect to Frank’s signature awfulness if you haven’t seen the whole show, but there’s no denying the emphasis Frank puts on his character’s words as he announces his latest cockroach-like triumph in the season finale. Macy isn’t likely to put another trophy next to his 2003 Emmy for “Door to Door” this year.

Jim Parsons as Sheldon Cooper, The Big Bang Theory (The Relationship Diremption)
This is Parsons’ sixth consecutive nomination. He has won three times, most recently last year, and is also nominated for TV movie “The Normal Heart” this year. In his submitted episode, Parsons realizes he may be in the wrong field, and his search for the right kind of science is truly entertaining. Parsons could easily repeat given the lack of a clear frontrunner.

Who should win (based on entire season): LeBlanc
Who should win (based on individual episodes): LeBlanc
Who will win: It could easily be C.K. for the first time or Parsons again, but I’ll bet on Gervais for the sneak attack again.

Next up: Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

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