Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.
Bryan Cranston as Walter White, Breaking Bad (Ozymandias)
Cranston took this award home three years in a row and has been a nominee for the last two. He’s now up for his final shot, and I suspect his show is going to perform extremely well even though it signed off the air almost a full year ago. His submission is dynamite – not the series finale, but one of the season’s strongest episodes in which everything implodes for Walt and he expresses both true devastation and makes a regrettable impulse power decision. It’s pretty damn strong as a submission.
Jeff Daniels as Will McAvoy, The Newsroom (Election Night, Part 2)
I was floored when Daniels’ name was called last year since he was the only performer in this category whose show wasn’t nominated for Best Drama Series, which is the case again this year. Instead of the pilot, which let him give an epic Sorkin speech, he submitted the season finale, in which his character makes an unexpected romantic turnaround. He won last year, so who knows, but I don’t think this could score him a second trophy.
Jon Hamm as Don Draper, Mad Men (The Strategy)
I’ve written for the past few years that it’s hard to believe Hamm doesn’t have an Emmy yet, and it’s just as hard to imagine that he would finally win for the show’s seventh season. Hamm chose wisely from a field of seven episodes this year, selecting the hour in which Don actually changes as a person, deciding that his pride isn’t worth the impact it has on his work and making a true effort with Peggy. This show isn’t really in Emmy voters’ favor anymore, and I can’t see Hamm beating the other five powerhouses in this category.
Woody Harrelson as Marty Hart, True Detective (The Locked Room)
This is Harrelson’s seventh career Emmy nomination but his first foray into dramatic territory (most of those nominations were for “Cheers”). While Harrelson hasn’t gotten as much buzz for his show as his costar (read below), he’s actually just as good if not better. This episode especially underlines that, as Marty acts out his emotions when Rust mows his lawn and juggles his personal life in the poorest way. I don’t think he can eclipse his costar, but wouldn’t that be cool to see him rewarded for succeeding in a dramatic role like this?
Matthew McConaughey as Rust Cohle, True Detective (Form and Void)
This is McConaughey’s first Emmy nomination, but after this past year, he’s no stranger to awards following many wins, most notably a Golden Globe and Oscar, for his starring role in “Dallas Buyers Club.” This performance would be impressive even if McConaughey wasn’t hot right now. His submission of the season finale does give him plenty of material, though I think that if anyone hasn’t watched the entire season (I marathoned it for this purpose), it’s harder to connect with the long-haired present-day version of Rust than the quote-heavy younger version who could easily have won this with earlier episodes. It’s just a question of whether he can trounce Cranston.
Kevin Spacey as Frank Underwood, House of Cards (Chapter 26)
Spacey was nominated last year for his role as corrupt political player Frank. He submitted the pilot then and the season finale, in which everything he has worked for throughout the second season comes to marvelous fruition, now. It’s a tough field, and I thought Spacey would win last year. While it’s a good look at how determined and motivate Frank is, it doesn’t seem like the hour to push him through to the win.
Who should win (based on entire season): Pretty much anyone but Daniels
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Cranston, Hamm, Spacey, or Harrelson
Who will win: A dead heat between three-time winner Cranston and first-time nominee McConaughey. I give the edge to the latter.
Next up: Best Lead Actress in a Drama Series
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