Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.
Fred Armisen as Various Characters, Portlandia (Pull-Out King)
This is Armisen’s first acting bid after back-to-back writing bids for IFC’s variety series. With Bill Hader ineligible this year, he’s the lone variety player recognized in this race. Armisen is great in a number of different parts, including one role as a pregnant woman, but I don’t see viewers, most of who probably haven’t seen this show before, warming enough to give him an Emmy for this enjoyable but truly bizarre series.
Andre Braugher as Captain Ray Holt, Brooklyn Nine-Nine (Christmas)
Braugher is an Emmy veteran, scoring his eighth nomination this year after wins for “Thief” in 2006 and “Homicide: Life on the Street” in 1998. He’s due for a win this year if the eight-year gap continues This is actually his first fully comedic role, and as someone who gave up on the show a few episodes in because I just wasn’t into the show, I found this submitted episode to be the most enjoyable among all the episodes I sampled for my Emmy viewing. In it, Ray is forced to endure round-the-clock protection from Andy Samberg’s Jake. While Samberg is responsible for much of the humor, Braugher is terrific too, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he won.
Ty Burrell as Phil Dunphy, Modern Family (Spring-a-Ding Fling)
This is Burrell’s fifth nomination, and he won on his second try back in 2011. At that point, there were four members of his cast nominated, and now we’re down to two. In his submitted episode, Phil prepares to host a realtor event. While it’s entertaining, much of the comedy comes from what he sees rather than what he does. There’s a bit of physical comedy, which Burrell excels at, but this is hardly his best submission and isn’t likely to result in another win.
Adam Driver as Adam, Girls (Two Plane Rides)
Driver is back for his second consecutive nomination, though his show has disappeared from the Best Comedy Series lineup. Driver, who has been getting plenty of movie roles recently, spent the entire season pushing Hannah away as he became a bona fide actor, and the season finale sums up all of that up as he realizes he needs to move on apart. It’s not really a comedy performance, and therefore I don’t see Driver beating any of these five other legitimately funny men.
Jesse Tyler Ferguson as Mitchell Pritchett, Modern Family (Message Received)
This is Ferguson’s fifth consecutive nomination, and he’s managed to stick around while costars Eric Stonestreet and Ed O’Neill have been snubbed. He’s still up against costar Burrell this year. His submission is an interesting one, since it features some funny stuff related to his old comic book but also includes a dramatic moment with his father. This category tends to reward showier comedy, so I don’t think Ferguson will be the choice this year.
Tony Hale as Gary Walsh, Veep (Crate)
Hale, who won this award last year, developed a chronic shoulder pain due to his frequent bag-carrying and endured plenty of abuse from Selina throughout the season. In his submitted episode, he gets to revel in a delirious celebratory moment with Selina. I don’t think it will enable him to repeat, but he certainly could based on his performance throughout the season.
Who should win (based on entire season): Hale, Burrell, or Ferguson
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Braugher
Who will win: My bet is that Braugher takes it, but who knows?
Next up: Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
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