Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Drama Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of major spoilers for listed episodes.

BREAKING BAD
DVD A - "Confessions" and "Rabid Dog"
DVD B - "To'hajiilee" and "Ozymandias"
DVD C - "Granite State" and "Felina"

I predicted this show to win three times before, and last year, it finally did. Were it not for “True Detective,” this show would have it in the bag, and it still might. Having aired almost a full year ago shouldn’t do it much of a disservice, and it has the advantage of being able to submit three-quarters of its final half-season. The first two episodes are left out so that the hours in which things get even more intense (full measures, so to speak), and it’s quite a selection. Each DVD is composed of consecutive episodes, and I think the world is obsessed enough with this departed show that any viewer will find this show to be worth voting for enthusiastically.

DOWNTON ABBEY
DVD A - "Episode 4.1" (two hours)
DVD B - "Episode 4.2" and "Episode 4.3"
DVD C - "Episode 4.8" (two hours)


This show is here for its third eligible time after winning the Best Miniseries award for season one. Its submitted episodes are the first three installments of the season and the last one. This show always goes all out at the beginning and end of its seasons, and so that should serve it well. I don’t think this show is nearly as hot as it used to be, and I think its end would have to be announced before this show took home this award.

GAME OF THRONES
DVD A - "The Lion and the Rose" and "Breaker of Chains"
DVD B - "First of His Name" and "The Laws and God and Man"
DVD C - "The Watchers on the Wall" and "The Children"

This is the fourth nomination for this show, which continues to go strong and earn positive mentions from critics and viewers alike. Its episode selections are the most deliberate of any of the shows in this category. DVD A is from the start of the season when a major regal event occurs, DVD B checks in a few episodes later midway through Tyrion’s trial, and DVD C features the eventful closing developments of the season. This show has a better shot than last year, but I’m not sure it can eclipse the other series in this race.

HOUSE OF CARDS
DVD A - "Chapter 14" and "Chapter 15"
DVD B - "Chapter 16" and "Chapter 17"
DVD C - "Chapter 22" and "Chapter 26"

This show returns for its second season after being nominated last year. What’s interesting about the episodes submitted are that they largely favor the beginning of the season, with the third DVD choosing a particularly strong episode that spells distress for Adam and Freddy, among others, and the game-changing season finale. The first four episodes of the season, on the first two DVDs, are all strong, and this show might have had a shot if this wasn’t a two-show race.

MAD MEN
DVD A - "Time Zones" and "A Day's Work"
DVD B - "Field Trip" and "The Monolith"
DVD C - "The Strategy" and "Waterloo"

With just seven episodes to select from this year, only one installment – the fifth, “The Runaways” – had to be left out. Though this show is still good, it’s not as excellent as it used to be, and Emmy voters are definitely aware of that. This show took home this trophy four years in a row and has been nominated twice since this then. Submitting consecutive episodes on each tape at least preserves plot continuity, but this show doesn’t have a shot this year.

TRUE DETECTIVE
DVD A - "The Long Bright Dark" and "Seeing Things"
DVD B - "The Locked Room" and "Who Goes There"
DVD C - "Secret Fate of All Life" and "After You've Gone"

This was the one show in this category that I hadn’t watched after deciding that the pilot was too slow-paced, and I watched the whole thing to be as well-prepared as possible for my Emmy predictions. It turns out that this series was quite good, and got better as it built from the premiere. I don’t understand why it’s here when “Fargo” and “American Horror Story” are considered miniseries, but that’s a bigger conversation. Very interestingly, this show omits its finale from its selections as well as the sixth episode, “Haunted House.” I was hooked by the end of episode two, so I think that each of these tapes should do pretty well to convince voters of the show’s quality. Now, can it beat “Breaking Bad”?

What should win (based on entire season): “Breaking Bad”
What should win (based on individual episodes): “Breaking Bad” or “True Detective”
What will win: It could be either a departing immensely popular show – “Breaking Bad” - or a hot new one – “True Detective.” I’ll put my money on the former to repeat.

Next up: Best Comedy Series