Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Lead Actor in a Comedy Series


Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Alec Baldwin as Jack Donaghy, 30 Rock (Respawn)
Two-time Emmy winner Baldwin is back with his fifth nomination for the season finale of the NBC comedy, in which he pretends that Kenneth is his wife Avery. It’s not a great submission, but Baldwin, who picked up his fifth consecutive SAG award earlier this year, is always a threat and can never be counted out entirely.

Steve Carell as Michael Scott, The Office (Goodbye Michael)
If ever there was someone overdue to win an Emmy, it would be Carell. He came close on multiple occasions but always lost out to someone else, but this year he’s far ahead of the competition. Leaving a show on a good note should earn him goodwill, and there’s plenty of drama and comedy in his final one-hour installment. I would be extremely surprised if someone managed to steal this well-deserved trophy from him.

Louis C.K. as Louie, Louie (Bully)
This surprise nominee is a bit of an odd choice, but so was Ricky Gervais for “Extras” a few years back. This is by far the most profane and least conventional choice of the pack, which could garner some votes, but if a stand-up comic who incorporated his act into the show like Jerry Seinfeld couldn’t win, Louie won’t either. Failing to confront a young bully doesn’t exactly portray him in the most favorable light.

Johnny Galecki as Leonard Hofstadter, The Big Bang Theory (The Benefactor Factor)
Galecki joins costar and last year’s winner Jim Parsons in this category as his show finally earns a Best Comedy Series nod. It will be near impossible for Galecki to upstage Parsons, but his episode, which finds him considering seducing an older potential funder played by Jessica Walter, is a fun choice and should earn a decent number of laughs.

Matt LeBlanc as Matt LeBlanc, Episodes (Episode 107)
LeBlanc returns to this category after three nominations for “Friends” last decade. This is an altogether different performance, mocking himself in a far more reserved and composed way. The season finale is a good episode for loyal watchers of the show, but I’m not sure how well it will play with first-time viewers. Unless voters are still nostalgic about “Friends,” he won’t win this year.

Jim Parsons as Sheldon Cooper, The Big Bang Theory (The Agreement Dissection)
Last year’s winner is back with a superb episode and much more support for his show. He got drunk in last year’s submitted episode, and in this season’s installment, he has to contend with roommates figuring out ways to undermine him. It’s a strong half-hour, and he could well repeat given how this category has gone in recent years. He’s a strong bet, second only to Carell.

Who should win (based on entire season): Carell
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Carell
Who will win: While it could be past winners Parsons or Baldwin, I think it’s fine Carell’s turn.

Next up: Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

3 comments:

Greg Boyd said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Richter Scale said...

One issue I have here is that I think Matt LeBlanc is actually supporting in his show, with Stephen Mangan being the male lead. It's not that Matt LeBlanc is not good (he is really good in this show), but I do find it hard to call a lead someone who wasn't in the pilot of a seven-episode season. That's just me though.

I'm glad you're warming up to The Big Bang Theory (as I've said before). I wish they would give Johnny Galecki more chances to shine, like they did in his submitted episode (and also The Boyfriend Complexity). As much as I love Jim Parsons and he nails just about everything he does, sometimes I feel the writers give him way too much without giving anyone else a chance to shine (I will say that some of the latter episodes of this season did feel more like ensemble efforts). It's great having Galecki here, and I hope this means he is showcased more on the show again (cine he and Kaley Cuoco are the Ross-and-Rachel of this show).

Still, this one should go to Steve Carrell. This is their last chance to reward him for The Office, he's been nominated every year he's been on the show (except for Season 1), so it definitely should be him.

Greg Boyd said...

I think you may have missed the point of the "Louie" episode that was submitted. It's not about Louie's failings, but rather a look at how and why violence continues to play a role in society. I agree that it probably wasn't the best choice for C.K. as an actor, though. He probably should have gone with "Night Out" (the season one finale). But the episode itself is terrific, and it does do a pretty good job of showcasing his talents both in front of and behind the camera.

Carrell's going to win this one. And he should. He did a great job with Michael's goodbye tour, and he's long overdue.