Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Kathy Bates as Harriet Korn, Harry’s Law (Innocent Man)
This nomination greatly worries me because of the success that David E. Kelley’s previous shows have had with Emmy voters. The show is far-fetched and Bates’ performance is hardly her best work, but submitting an episode where she defends an accused murderer serving a life sentence that doesn’t even give her much to do is just the kind of trick that worked well for James Spader several times.

Connie Britton as Tami Taylor, Friday Night Lights (Always)
This is Britton’s second nomination, for the final season of the football drama. Like costar Kyle Chandler, she submitted the series finale, which offers a good showcase of her taking a stand and telling her husband what’s important to her. It’s a strong episode but not one that’s going to win her the award unless voters really, really want to reward the show, which I don’t think is the case given her competition here.

Mireille Enos as Detective Sarah Linden, The Killing (Missing)
While I didn’t particularly love Enos’ performance, I can understand why it’s an intriguing portrayal, and the show seems to be decently popular with voters. Enos made an interesting choice with her episode submission, choosing an hour that stands almost entirely alone from the rest of the show, in which she searches for her missing son, which was probably smart and could even propel her to a surprise victory.

Mariska Hargitay as Detective Olivia Benson, Law & Order: SVU (Rescue)
Hargitay continues to hang on to her spot in this category with her eighth nomination. She won this trophy five years ago and hasn’t mustered up an equivalent episode since then, and definitely won’t be taking home an award this year. Her episode finds her participating in a case she’s been banned from investigating as she has custody of a suspect’s son. It’s good bait, but she’s not really in this race.

Julianna Margulies as Alicia Flockhart, The Good Wife (In Sickness)
This year’s frontrunner was also last year’s frontrunner, and though she didn’t win that race, the second season of her show was even stronger than the first, and the victor isn’t in the running now. This is a magnificent submission, after Alicia finds out about Peter and Kalinda, so she’s in good shape to take home this trophy.

Elisabeth Moss as Peggy Olson, Mad Men (The Suitcase)
This is Moss’ third consecutive nomination, though she switched down to the supporting race last year before returning here this year. The show is still going strong and she’s wisely submitted the best showcase of her work, where she goes head-to-head with Jon Hamm and occasionally comes out ahead. She’s Margulies’ most threatening competition.

Who should win (based on entire season): Moss
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Moss
Who will win: It’s going to be an insanely tight race between Moss and Margulies, and given that Margulies couldn’t win last year for the freshman season of her show, I’m tempted to give Moss the edge based on her episode submission.

Next up: Best Lead Actor in a Comedy Series