Emmy Predictions: Best Lead Actress in a Mini-Series/Made-for-TV Movie

Contenders are pictured and listed in the order I think they’re likely to get nominated. I don’t have much to say here so I’ll save my commentary for the nominees.

Current predictions:
PHYLICIA RASHAD, A RAISIN IN THE SUN
JUDI DENCH, CRANFORD
LAURA LINNEY, JOHN ADAMS
SUSAN SARANDON, BERNARD AND DORIS
VANESSA REDGRAVE, THE FEVER

Alternates:
SISSY SPACEK, PICTURES OF HOLLIS WOODS
BRYCE DALLAS HOWARD, AS YOU LIKE IT
CATHERINE KEENER, AN AMERICAN CRIME
ELLEN PAGE, AN AMERICAN CRIME
ELLEN BURSTYN, FOR ONE MORE DAY

Emmy Predictions: Best Lead Actor in a Mini-Series/Made-for-TV Movie

Contenders are pictured and listed in the order I think they’re likely to get nominated. I don’t have much to say here so I’ll save my commentary for the nominees, save for one small item: It’s probably a mistake for me not to have David Oyewolo from “Five Days” listed below but there are just so many contenders and I don’t think he’s popular enough to make it in over this crowd.

Current predictions:
PAUL GIAMMATI, JOHN ADAMS
RALPH FIENNES, BERNARD AND DORIS
KEVIN SPACEY, RECOUNT
DANIEL RADCLIFFE, MY BOY JACK
TOM WILKINSON, RECOUNT

Alternates:
SEAN COMBS, A RAISIN IN THE SUN
RICKY GERVAIS, EXTRAS: THE EXTRA SPECIAL SERIES FINALE
OLIVER PLATT, THE BRONX IS BURNING
JOHN TURTURRO, THE BRONX IS BURNING
SAM SHEPARD, RUFFIAN

Emmy Predictions: Best Guest Actress in a Comedy Series

Listed below are the eleven semi-finalists for this category. Episodes submitted by performers are listed in parentheses after their names. Beware of minor spoilers for the episodes described. My analysis may be somewhat more limited here as I haven’t seen a good number of the performers and their episodes. Nominees are pictured in order of likelihood of getting nominated, and listed below alphabetically.

Notably missing: Britney Spears and Sarah Chalke (How I Met Your Mother), Mary-Kate Olsen (Weeds), Janeane Garofalo (Two and a Half Men)

POLLY BERGEN, DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES (Distant Past)
Bergen has a baity role as Lynette’s irritating mother on the once-hot ABC primetime soap. I’m fairly certain that Bergen can get nominated, the only doubts I have come from the fact that “Desperate Housewives” seems to be rapidly losing popularity with voters, with snubs for the show, Teri Hatcher, and Dana Delany. I think Bergen’s safe, though.

EDIE FALCO, 30 ROCK (Episode 210)
Falco was funny as Celeste Cunningham, Jack Donaghy’s forbidden Democrat lover. Falco is a six-time Emmy nominee for her work on “The Sopranos” and Alec Baldwin makes for an equally good scene partner as James Gandolfini. Falco did miss out on a nomination for her hyped-up guest spot on “Will & Grace” a few years ago, but I’m confident that the halfway-between-New-York-and-D.C. meeting place gimmick should assure Falco a nomination.

CARRIE FISHER, 30 ROCK (Rosemary’s Baby)
Fisher guest-starred in one of the funniest episodes of “30 Rock” this season as a half-deranged comedy writer yearning for a comeback. The episode was hilarious and well-received, and Fisher may be able to capitalize off of that buzz. Fisher has never been much of an awards magnet, and I doubt many even consider her to be a good actress. Regardless, she should be able to manage a nomination.

VIVICA A. FOX, CURB YOUR ENTHUSIASM (The Rat Dog) (not pictured)
I completely forgot about Fox in my original write-up for this category. She made the top ten, and despite being a decently-known actress, I think she has no shot. No guest star from “Curb” has ever gotten nominated, including frequent appearances by the likes of Richard Lewis, Ted Danson, and Mary Steenburgen. Plus, Fox isn’t really the star of his submitted episode at all and does little, if anything, funny. The episode itself is great, but I can’t see her getting nominated. Maybe over Jane Lynch, but otherwise, I’d count her out.

KATHRYN JOOSTEN, DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES (Welcome to Kanagawa)
Joosten couldn’t manage a nomination last year because she opted to submit herself in the supporting category, where she made the top ten but ultimately missed out on the top five. This year she’s back here with the post-disaster episode where Mrs. McCluskey has to deal with the death of her friend Ida. It’s a decent enough performance but pales in comparison to the comedic strength of the other contenders, even Bergen and Knight from the same show.

SHIRLEY KNIGHT, DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES (If There’s Anything I Can’t Stand)
Knight was nominated the last time she guest-starred as Rex’s mother on “Desperate Housewives” two years ago. She reappeared in two episodes this season, dealing with a stubborn Bree and a pregnant granddaughter Danielle. Her performance is pretty much the same as the first time, though it’s not nearly as funny or showy as many of the other performers in this category. I think she’ll just miss the mark.

JANE LYNCH, TWO AND A HALF MEN (Rough Night in Hump Junction)
Lynch has popped up many times in the past few years in Christopher Guest comedies and on Showtime’s “The L Word” as ruthless, sarcastic attorney Joyce. Her first real awards shot should not come for “Two and a Half Men” and I’m certain it won’t. She’s barely in her submitted episode and there’s little funny about either the episode or her performance. She’s in the top ten only because she’s been around so much lately.

ANNIE POTTS, UGLY BETTY (Zero Worship)
I know nothing about Potts’ guest performance on “Ugly Betty” save for the fact that she plays a psychic. Looking at her resume, she missed out on Emmy nominations for her work on the drama “Any Day Now” despite two consecutive SAG nominations. Regardless of her history, she isn’t likely to get nominated simply based on a number of contenders ahead of her who won’t likely be snubbed.

AMY RYAN, THE OFFICE (Goodbye Toby)
I wrote about Ryan in the corresponding drama category, noting the recent buzz she’s been getting after an Oscar nomination for “Gone Baby Gone”. Her performance in the season finale of “The Office” was pitch-perfect, funny but not too showy. Her unexpected flirtation with Michael was especially amusing. Making the top ten should easily enable her to get a nomination here.

SARAH SILVERMAN, MONK (Mr. Monk and His Biggest Fan)
Silverman is far more generally acceptable on “Monk” than on her title show, for which she also made the top ten. The truth is, it’s hard to out-act Tony Shalhoub, and few actors have managed to do so and get Emmy nominations for it. The three who have – John Turturro, Laurie Metcalf, and Stanley Tucci – are far more established and talented comedians than the occasionally funny Silverman. Maybe she’ll make it in, but I think the top ten placement is her reward.

ELAINE STRITCH, 30 ROCK (LudaChristmas)
Stritch won this award last year, with a far better submission than her episode this year. Regardless, I think that her ability to upstage Alec Baldwin should earn her a repeat nomination. She should be able to get in despite the heavy competition from guest stars on the same show, though I think that both Falco and Fisher will get in along with Stritch.

Current predictions:
POLLY BERGEN, DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES
EDIE FALCO, 30 ROCK
CARRIE FISHER, 30 ROCK
AMY RYAN, THE OFFICE
ELAINE STRITCH, 30 ROCK

Emmy Predictions: Best Guest Actor in a Comedy Series

This category is a bit more complicated since the list of top ten contenders is still unknown. I’ll take my best guess at a top ten and a top five among them. Episodes submitted by performers are listed in parentheses after their names. Beware of minor spoilers for the episodes described. My analysis may be somewhat more limited here as I haven’t seen a good number of the performers and their episodes. Nominees are pictured in order of likelihood of getting nominated, and listed below alphabetically.

Revising my previous top ten predictions, I’m booting the late Stanley Kamel (Monk), though it would be nice to see him get recognized for a great recurring performance, for Dean Winters (30 Rock).

WILL ARNETT, 30 ROCK (Jack Gets in the Game)
The “Arrested Development” alum got snubbed last year for an equally hilarious turn on the show. I think the increased popularity of “30 Rock” will allow Arnett to break through, my only worry is that there will be far too many “30 Rock” guest stars in contention and Arnett may miss the mark. He was the only “Arrested” cast member to receive an Emmy nod for the third season, and I know that “30 Rock” fans love him on the show.

BEAU BRIDGES, MY NAME IS EARL (No Heads and a Duffel Bag)
Bridges has racked up an impressive ten Emmy nominations in the past twenty years, the latest of which was last year for his guest-starring role on “Earl”. The once raved-about NBC comedy has fallen off the radar, leading to a surprising snub for last year’s winner Jaime Pressly. It’s probable that Bridges should be able to return based on his name, and shows with faded buzz often still manage to do well with guest nods (like “ER” and “Law & Order”).

MATTHEW BRODERICK, 30 ROCK (Cooter)
Broderick appeared in a subdued but amusing turn as a government official desperate to escape from his job with the help of Alec Baldwin’s character in the “30 Rock” finale. I think Broderick stands a terrific chance of getting nominated based on his own name and the fact that he quite honestly hasn’t been around in a while and people might like to honor him. And voters love “30 Rock”.

VICTOR GARBER, UGLY BETTY (Grin and Bear It)
Garber is an Emmy favorite who managed nominations in this category for both “Frasier” and “Will & Grace” as well three consecutive nods for “Alias”. I’m not sure the extent of his role as a substitute teacher (?) since I haven’t seen the episode but I assume that, while he’s certainly good, he’ll miss out to “bigger” performances on other shows.

MATTHEW MODINE, WEEDS (The Two Mrs. Scottsons)
Modine turned in a fantastic performance as the seedy, manipulative yet effective Sullivan Groff on “Weeds” this season. His interactions with both Mary-Louise Parker and Elizabeth Perkins are wonderfully entertaining. Modine’s role isn’t as showy or laugh-out-loud as some of the other contenders in this category, but if he can make it into the top ten, perhaps he can get nominated. I’d like to hope so.

GIOVANNI RIBISI, MY NAME IS EARL (Bad Earl)
Formerly best known as Phoebe’s brother on “Friends”, Ribisi has been turning in fine supporting work for years and finally got recognized last year with an Emmy nod for his guest-starring role on “Earl”. Guest actors on comedy shows rarely repeat year-to-year, though Alec Baldwin (Will & Grace) and Fred Willard (Everybody Loves Raymond) did manage to do so several years ago. My bet is that Ribisi makes the top ten, but misses out on the final five.

FREDDY RODRIGUEZ, UGLY BETTY (Bananas for Betty)
Rodriguez was nominated way back when for his performance in the first year of “Six Feet Under”. His role on “Ugly Betty” is considerably less substantial, but he plays it well enough. His submitted episode has him heavily overshadowed by star America Ferrera and it’s just not as outstanding a role as some of the other actors in contention.

DAVID SCHWIMMER, 30 ROCK (Greenzo)
Schwimmer received good mark for his guest spot on “30 Rock” but the truth is that, much as he gets into his role, it’s the episode that’s much funnier than the performer himself. Schwimmer’s only been nominated for an Emmy once, for the very first season of “Friends” way back in 1995, but if he’s going to get another nomination, this is certainly it.

JERRY SEINFELD, 30 ROCK (Seinfeld Vision)
Seinfeld guest-starred on what I would probably consider the best “30 Rock” installment yet, with a number of laugh-out-loud moments throughout the episode. Seinfeld was a part of most of them, including the insertion of archive footage from his show inter several NBC series and Tina Fey conversing with him using his very own trademark voice. I don’t think people will give Seinfeld too much credit for it, but it’s possible he’ll be rewarded with a nomination.

DEAN WINTERS, 30 ROCK (Subway Hero)
Winters has been a recurring guest star on “30 Rock” almost since the beginning, but it’s in his submitted episode, “Subway Hero”, that his true comic genius shows through. He milks his newfound fame and glory by acting just like the jerk he always is. I think fans like him a lot and this is where he could catch his first big break in terms of awards recognition.

Current predictions:
WILL ARNETT, 30 ROCK
BEAU BRIDGES, MY NAME IS EARL
MATTHEW BRODERICK, 30 ROCK
MATTHEW MODINE, WEEDS
DEAN WINTERS, 30 ROCK

Emmy Predictions: Best Guest Actress in a Drama Series

This category is a bit more complicated since the list of top ten contenders is still unknown. I’ll take my best guess at a top ten and a top five among them. Episodes submitted by performers are listed in parentheses after their names. Beware of minor spoilers for the episodes described. My analysis may be somewhat more limited here as I haven’t seen a good number of the performers and their episodes. Nominees are pictured in order of likelihood of getting nominated, and listed below alphabetically.

Revising my previous top ten predictions, I’m booting Frances Sternhagen (The Closer) and Kate Walsh (Grey’s Anatomy) for Angelica Huston and Jaime Murray.

ELLEN BURSTYN, BIG LOVE (Take Me As I Am)
A similar situation to Peter O’Toole – a show I don’t watch, have heard good things about, doesn’t get much Emmy attention, but this highly respected performer should be able to get in. If Jeanne Tripplehorn can make her top ten (she also has the same episode submission), I think Burstyn should slide right in. And Bruce Dern made his top ten, so I think Burstyn is more than safe.

ANNE DUDEK, HOUSE (Wilson’s Heart)
Everyone loved the Wilson-Amber plotline in the “House” season finale, and while I don’t see it that much, people seem to think Dudek is wholly deserving of an Emmy nomination. I think she’ll make the top ten based on the popularity of the show, and should be able to get nominated, especially if David Morse could get nominated last year.

ANJELICA HUSTON, MEDIUM (Wicked Game, Part 2)
There’s already a “Medium” fan lurking around my blog hurling insults my way, so I’ll keep this brief. If Jake Weber can make it onto a top ten list, Huston can surely do so as well. I only saw part one of “Wicked Game”, but judging from that, I’m not sure she’ll be able to make it. I wouldn’t be surprised, just…disappointed.

JAIME MURRAY, DEXTER (Morning Comes)
Murray was incredibly amazing when she first appeared on the show, then entirely unbearable by the time of her departure. This episode comes somewhere in between. “Dexter” does well in the popular vote so it’s likely Murray made the top ten, but I think she would been better off with an earlier episode which showcased her incredible talent before the quality of her performance went way downhill.

CYNTHIA NIXON, LAW & ORDER: SVU (Alternate)
I haven’t seen the episode, but I believe Nixon plays a person with multiple-personality disorder, which sounds like pure Emmy bait. Nixon won an Emmy for the final season of “Sex and the City” and the release of the movie this year should ensure that Nixon is front-and-center in voters’ minds. “SVU” also tends to do well with guest acting nominations.

ROSIE O’DONNELL, NIP/TUCK (Rachel Ben Natan)
O’Donnell has appeared in guest stints on the show the past two years, and hasn’t managed a nomination either of those times. I haven’t seen her on the show, but I’m sure she does a decent enough job that some people love and others hate. As I noted in reference to Oliver Platt, only one performer from “Nip/Tuck” has ever gotten any Emmy nomination, and that was Jill Clayburgh, a far more respected actress, in this category three years ago.

ELIZABETH REASER, GREY’S ANATOMY (Losing My Mind)
Reaser got nominated last year in this category for her performance as an amnesiac patient who bonds with and ultimately falls for (I think) Justin Chambers’ character. I saw one of her episodes this year, featuring her descent into mental illness, and wasn’t too impressed. I think the character has gone downhill, and I think Reaser will miss out on a repeat nomination.

AMY RYAN, THE WIRE (Clarifications)
Ryan is on fire right now with her recent Oscar nomination for “Gone Baby Gone” and top ten placement in the comedy guest actress field for “The Office”. As far as I know, Ryan has been on “The Wire” for years and never gotten a mention, and my suspicion is that she’ll crack the top ten this year but miss out on a nomination due to a more limited role (from what I’ve been hearing). She could easily be a double nominee, though that didn’t work out too well for Stanley Tucci last year, when he got nominated for “Monk” but missed out for “ER”.

JURNEE SMOLLETT, GREY’S ANATOMY (Freedom)
Smollett seems to be this year’ hot “Grey’s Anatomy” guest star after last year’s Elizabeth Reaser. Smollett is prominently featured in her two-part episode, and delivers an impressive performance that makes you forget how young she is. My feeling is that if Christina Ricci was able to get nominated for a pretty lacking performance on the show two years ago, Smollett, who’s actually trying, should have no trouble.

MIRA SORVINO, HOUSE (Frozen)
Sorvino guest-stared in the series submission of “House”, which I think is an excellent choice for the show that should guarantee it a nomination. Sorvino is equally deserving for her portrayal of a mysteriously sick researcher in the South Pole who bonds with House as he helps to diagnose her. Sorvino’s performance is strong, and I’m fairly certain she’ll make the cut.

Current predictions:
ELLEN BURSTYN, BIG LOVE
ANNE DUDEK, HOUSE
CYNTHIA NIXON, LAW & ORDER: SVU
JURNEE SMOLLETT, GREY’S ANATOMY
MIRA SORVINO, HOUSE

Emmy Predictions: Best Guest Actor in a Drama Series

Listed below are the ten semi-finalists for this category. Episodes submitted by performers are listed in parentheses after their names. Beware of minor spoilers for the episodes described. My analysis may be somewhat more limited here as I haven’t seen a good number of the performers and their episodes. Nominees are pictured in order of likelihood of getting nominated, and listed below alphabetically.

Notably missing: Brad Dourif & Ron Canada (Law & Order)

KEITH CARRADINE, DEXTER (Morning Comes)
Carradine appeared in all but one of the episodes in this season of “Dexter”, and he was perfectly cast from day one. I fear that the same fate may await him as did Forest Whitaker for a similar role on “The Shield” two years ago, which resulted in no nomination at all (though I think Whitaker went supporting). Carradine chose a great episode, and I think he has what it takes to get in, especially since his role is much less violent than Michael C. Hall’s, and his romance with Deb should help make him more likable.

CHARLES DURNING, RESCUE ME (Yaz)
Durning received a lot of buzz, on Emmy forums at least, last year for his performance as Denis Leary’s dad on the FX firefighter drama. He didn’t make the cut, unsurprisingly, especially due to the overwhelming number of actors submitted in the supporting category. This year he’s in the guest spot, and he had a great performance in his episode, and I’m sure it doesn’t hurt (SPOILER ALERT) that he dies at the end of his submitted episode. He’s an eight-time Emmy nominee, including two mentions in this very category in the past ten years. His inclusion is very possible.

DANNY GLOVER, BROTHERS & SISTERS (The Feast of Epiphany)
I haven’t seen Glover’s submission because I’ve seen about as much of “Brothers & Sisters” as I can take. Glover is a four-time Emmy nominee playing opposite last year’s Best Actress winner Sally Field, and therefore his chances should be good. This is an incredibly competitive category with a lot of veteran actors and someone’s going to get snubbed – my money is on Glover.

ROBERT MORSE, MAD MEN (Nixon vs. Kennedy)
Morse is the little-seen other partner in the Sterling-Cooper advertising firm on “Mad Men”. John Slattery, who portrays Sterling, is a likely nominee in the supporting category. Morse plays his role perfectly and voters seem to love the show. His episode submission is fine, but I think Morse will lose out to showier contenders, like Williams, who have stronger episodes which showcase truly terrific performances.

PETER O’TOOLE, THE TUDORS (Episode 208)
This is Peter O’Toole. I don’t watch the show, but I’m sure he’s great. And even if I wasn’t sure, or even if he wasn’t actually great, it doesn’t matter. It’s rare that legendary performers like O’Toole do television, and the guest acting category is a perfect place to honor them. The fact that “The Tudors” made the top ten for Best Drama Series only helps him because that means that there is some quality to the show, not just an amazing guest actor.

OLIVER PLATT, NIP/TUCK (Carly Summers)
Platt is a three-time Emmy nominee, first in this category for “The West Wing” years ago, and then twice in the supporting race for his work on the Showtime drama “Huff”. I’m sure he’s great on “Nip/Tuck”, a show I gave up on long ago, but the series never quite took with the Emmys. That’s not necessarily a problem in this category, and Jill Clayburgh did manage a nomination a few years back for her guest-starring role. I think Platt has a better shot this year with the mini-series “The Bronx is Burning”.

PETER RIEGERT, DAMAGES (Do You Regret What We Did?)
I’d consider Riegert’s inclusion a surprise, and a sign that voters really, really, really like “Damages”. Riegert’s recurring role isn’t nearly as strong as, say, Carradine or Durning, but he could coast on the show’s popularity. His submission, while it does somewhat cleverly craft him as an uncertain hero slash potential villain, is similar to Morse’s: the performance doesn’t leave a showy lasting impression.

STANLEY TUCCI, ER (The War Comes Home)
Tucci is an excellent actor who doesn’t receive nearly as much credit as he deserves, and he missed out in this category last year. He did, however, beat out Martin Landau and Ian McKellen in the corresponding comedy race, so voters clearly like him. His performance on “ER” (I haven’t seen it) may not be as fine-tuned, but I think it’s likely he’ll make the cut. “ER” always seems to manages to hang on in the guest categories, with a nominee in this category since 2003 and in any guest category since 2000.

GLYNN TURMAN, IN TREATMENT (Alex: Week 8)
Turman delivers a commanding performance as the father of Blair Underwood’s character on the HBO therapy series. He dominates the episode, which involves only him and Gabriel Byrne to begin with, and the most interesting part is that his mannerisms are almost identical to Underwood’s. Turman’s real challenge was making the top ten, but now that he’s in, I think he has a terrific shot at a nomination.

ROBIN WILLIAMS, LAW & ORDER: SVU (Authority)
The most-hyped guest star of the season was featured in an episode that actually wasn’t so great. Williams, however, did an excellent job portraying a “concerned citizen” who took illegal measures to bring out the worst in people to make a political statement. Williams should easily get a nomination, his only concern will be beating O’Toole.

Current predictions:
KEITH CARRADINE, DEXTER
PETER O’TOOLE, THE TUDORS
STANLEY TUCCI, ER
GLYNN TURMAN, IN TREATMENT
ROBIN WILLIAMS, LAW & ORDER: SVU

Emmy Predictions: Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Listed below are the ten semi-finalists for this category. Episodes submitted by performers are listed in parentheses after their names. Beware of minor spoilers for the episodes described. Nominees are pictured in order of likelihood of getting nominated, and listed below alphabetically.

Notably missing: Presumed sure things Jaime Pressly (My Name is Earl) and Dana Delany (Desperate Houswives), Becki Newton (Ugly Betty), Cheryl Hines (Curb Your Enthusiasm)

KRISTIN CHENOWETH, PUSHING DAISIES (Girth)
I was enamored with Chenoweth midway through the pilot episode of “Pushing Daisies”. I’m sure some voters feel the same way, yet I worry that some will find her impossibly irritating. Her episode submission is stellar, and her scenes with the sorely snubbed Chi McBride should only help her. With both Pressly and Delany out of the race, I think Chenoweth moves much closer to a sure thing, especially if Emmy voters love her show.

CONCHATA FERRELL, TWO AND A HALF MEN (Fish in a Drawer)
I was shocked when Ferrell first got nominated three years ago, and I’m still not over it. She’s funny comic relief, but as an actress I can’t say she’s trying too hard. She returned somehow last year though, so I guess voters just can’t stop laughing. She submitted that dreadful CSI crossover episode (the actual “CSI” installment was far better) where she’s being interviewed by a detective at the police station. If she makes it in over Chenoweth and Krakowski, which I fear she will, I’ll be really disappointed.

JENNA FISCHER, THE OFFICE (Fun Run)
Fischer finally broke through last year with a killer episode submission that somehow lost to Jaime Pressly (who this year got snubbed). I was initially wary of her episode choice, thinking that perhaps “Dinner Party” might be better, but I re-watched a series of clips between her and John Krasinski, and I think it’s a wonderful choice. Fischer is less showy than almost every actress in this category (save perhaps for Light), so her not being raucously funny might hurt her, but I think she’s safe.

JANE KRAKOWSKI, 30 ROCK (The Collection)
I was devastated and in shock when Krakowski missed out on even a nomination last year with her submission of the hilarious “Hardball” episode. Hopefully this year’s choice, where Kenneth starts being mean to her to get to keep eating, should do well for her, in addition to the ever-rising popularity of “30 Rock”. While I think she made a good episode choice, it seems people really loved that “me want food” bit from the premiere. With Pressly and Delany out of the way, Krakowski should have a slightly easier shot at breaking through. I’d like to be optimistic.

JUDITH LIGHT, UGLY BETTY (I See Me, ICU)
Light got nominated in the guest actress category last year for her performance on “Ugly Betty” before being promoted (I assume?) to series regular this year. While I’m sure her presence in many episodes was scarce, she plays a small but pivotal role in her submitted episode, and it’s quite a good one at that. She’s funny but also completely serious at the same time. I don’t think she’ll be ranked highly enough, and costar Vanessa Williams will surely overshadow her, but if she made it in, she’d be deserving based on the episode (after Chenoweth, Fischer, Krakowski, Smart, and Perkins).

ELIZABETH PERKINS, WEEDS (Risk)
Perkins got nominated the past two years, and this year her episode is almost the same as last year. She’s hardly in it, but the few scenes she is in she knocks out of the park. She’s great fun, and her interactions with Conrad and Heylia are priceless. She might have had trouble staying in with some of the competition, but with those aforementioned two out of the picture she should be safe.

AMY POEHLER, SATURDAY NIGHT LIVE (Tina Fey)
Ah, the wild card. Poehler is the first variety performer to be in this category, and even more importantly, the only variety performer in any of the comedy series categories this year. She’s definitely funny, and sharing scenes Emmy winner Tina Fey can’t hurt. I haven’t sent the episode (anyone know if they’re online somewhere), but I suspect the sketch format won’t help her, and I think she’ll miss the cut. It’s really a toss-up; I have no idea what could happen. She likely did pretty well with the popular vote.

JEAN SMART, SAMANTHA WHO? (The Girlfriend)
Smart, a recent Emmy favorite nominated two years running for her turn on “24”, is terrific on this new comedy. I wasn’t convinced she’d make the top ten, but I think once voters see her they’ll really like her. She’s also with the underrated Melissa McCarthy for most of her episode. I think she’s equally likely to make it or not. Emmy voters may see this as Christina Applegate’s show. One other factor hindering her is that the show itself isn’t quite that funny by this point. But she did get nominated for season six of “24” where she was considerably better than the material…

HOLLAND TAYLOR, TWO AND A HALF MEN (Media Room Slash Dungeon)
Taylor is almost like Stockard Channing in terms of getting recognized for just about anything. She won an Emmy for “The Practice” in the supporting category when she wasn’t even a full-fledged cast member (as far as I know)! And she’s been nominated for her infrequent if not funny appearances on this show two out of four years. Her submission pairs her with Charlie Sheen the whole time in an amusing scenario, but I have to hope that some more deserving candidates can get in instead of Taylor, who waltzes in and out of episodes seemingly in her spare time.

VANESSA WILLIAMS, UGLY BETTY (Bananas for Betty)
I don’t quite see why people like Williams so much. They do seem to love the character, and this is an appropriate episode for that. Pushing Betty White out of a cab is odd enough but viewers seem to have liked it. Many have said that the buzz for “Ugly Betty” has gone way down while it has only gone up for Williams. I’d argue the opposite in terms of my personal preference – I’ve come to enjoy the show more and more while watching selected episodes while Williams still doesn’t impress me quite that much.

Current predictions:
KRISTIN CHENOWETH, PUSHING DAISIES
JENNA FISCHER, THE OFFICE
JANE KRAKOWSKI, 30 ROCK
ELIZABETH PERKINS, WEEDS
VANESSA WILLIAMS, UGLY BETTY

Emmy Predictions: Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Listed below are the ten semi-finalists for this category. Episodes submitted by performers are listed in parentheses after their names. Beware of minor spoilers for the episodes described. Nominees are pictured in order of likelihood of getting nominated, and listed below alphabetically.

Notably missing: Chi McBride (Pushing Daisies), Michael Urie (Ugly Betty)

JON CRYER, TWO AND A HALF MEN (Meander to Your Dander)
I thought Cryer was deserving of a nomination (and win) for the first season of “Two and a Half Men” four years ago but his act has grown tired and his plotlines, and the show, have gone far downhill. I’d like to assume that “Two and a Half Men” can fall out of favor with Emmy voters this year, but I’ve been hearing the opposite, and it also doesn’t work that way, category to category. I’m just hoping they’re willing to embrace something new, and I think someone will take Cryer’s spot.

KEVIN DILLON, ENTOURAGE (The Dream Team)
Dillon snuck in last year after all the buzz had previously gone to costar Jeremy Piven. I’m not sure if he can stick it out, however, his episode choice is terrific. His desire to join a medical marijuana club simply to get the free trucker hat perfectly encapsulates his character. I’m looking at this category as including Piven, Krasinski, and Wilson with a three-way fight between Dillon, Cryer, and Harris for additional slots, hopefully to be occupied by new performers. We’ll see. Dillon may very well return.

JUSTIN KIRK, WEEDS (Bill Sussman)
If Kirk couldn’t get nominated for his astonishing work in the first season of “Weeds”, I don’t think it’s ever going to happen. He’s not nearly as good anymore (though he’s returning to his former quality in the currently-airing season four, eligible for the 2009 Emmys). His episode submission has him returning for his individualized plotline in the army, and could serve him well, but he falls behind the aforementioned likely six (Piven, Krasinski, Wilson, Dillon, Cryer, and Harris), and I’m sure he won’t be as popular as the “30 Rock” boys.

NEIL PATRICK HARRIS (The Goat)
I think Harris and his show are horribly overrated, yet I’m aware that most people disagree with me. His episode choice, far better plot-wise than last year, should help him along to a slot. I know that HIMYM fans loved the Ted-breaking-up-with-Barney plotline and Harris is, if nothing else, highly amusing to watch. It’s a good episode for his character.

JOHN KRASINSKI, THE OFFICE (Branch Wars)
This should be Krasinski’s fourth nomination coming up, but somehow, he’s never made it in. I have of course been predicting him since season one (along with Wilson, which paid off last year). Last year, his episode submission was to blame, and I think he’ll finally get it this year. I initially thought “Branch Wars” wouldn’t be a good choice for Krasinski, suspecting he would choose it after watching it live, but I think it will go over well with voters, and I still can’t stop laughing about those mustaches.

JACK MCBRAYER, 30 ROCK (Episode 210)
I predicted that McBrayer would steal a spot last year, only to have my hopes thwarted by one Doogie Howser. If it’s possible, the pedigree and buzz for “30 Rock” has gone up since last year, and the inclusion of McBrayer in the top ten (the full list wasn’t released last year, just 5 or 6 names, so we don’t know if he made it) is a terrific sign. He’s a much better actor than Tracy Morgan, that’s for sure, and his caffeine addiction allows him to do the kind of things that comedy supporting actors are supposed to do. I’m happy to predict him again with much higher hopes.

TRACY MORGAN, 30 ROCK (Secrets and Lies)
One thing is certain: Morgan is crazy, just like his character. I saw him on the street in Times Square and did not say hello because he looked angry. Anyway, he’s not really an actor who should be winning awards, especially compared to the rest of the cast. If voters really go ape for “30 Rock”, I could see the list being Morgan, McBrayer, Krasinski, Wilson, and Piven. His episode choice is not nearly as funny as the episode where he hallucinates Richard Nixon. He will at least fare better here than last year when he went lead.

JEREMY PIVEN, ENTOURAGE (The Day Fuckers)
Piven won this award the past two years, and there’s no question that he’ll be back again. He’s by far the most popular out of this list of contenders, and he’s just as consistently excellent as he was from day one. His episode submission also features him doing what he does best – pissing a bunch of people off with his arrogance and then running around trying to appease them without actually apologizing. Win #4, perhaps?

FRED WILLARD, BACK TO YOU (Cradle to Grave)
This is further proof that Emmy voters don’t even look at the name of the show, and often reward veteran actors for simply being on TV shows (see: Sharon Gless). Willard’s a great funnyman and has certainly paid his due, with three Emmy nominations for guest-starring on “Everybody Loves Raymond” to prove it. This, however, is not a role he should be receiving any kind of recognition for. Even leads Kelsey Grammer and Patricia Heaton didn’t make their respective top tens, and Willard’s barely in his episode, hardly as funny as usual to boot. It’s a real shame, considering Michael Urie, Chi McBride, or Rhys Darby could have actually gotten nominated had they made the top ten. Willard, in my mind, is the least likely nominee in any category at this year’s Emmys.

RAINN WILSON, THE OFFICE (Money)
Wilson got nominated for the first time last year, and my bet is that he’s here to stay as “The Office” only becomes more popular. In his chosen episode, Jim and Pam come to visit his farm, making for real hilarity and showing just how much of a goofball Dwight really is. I don’t know if it can win him the Emmy, but he’ll be nominated for sure. He’s been terrific this whole season.

Current predictions:
NEIL PATRICK HARRIS, HOW I MET YOUR MOTHER
JOHN KRASINSKI, THE OFFICE
JACK MCBRAYER, 30 ROCK
JEREMY PIVEN, ENTOURAGE
RAINN WILSON, THE OFFICE

Emmy Predictions: Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

Listed below are the eleven semi-finalists for this category. Episodes submitted by performers are listed in parentheses after their names. Beware of minor spoilers for the episodes described. Nominees are pictured in order of likelihood of getting nominated, and listed below alphabetically.

Notably missing: Yunjin Kim (Lost), Connie Britton (Friday Night Lights), January Jones (Mad Men), Sara Ramirez (Grey’s Anatomy)

JANE ALEXANDER, TELL ME YOU LOVE ME (Episode 10)
This is another performer whose episode I haven’t watched because I actually can’t find access to the episode. The pilot was more than enough sex for me though. Alexander is one of the many actresses in this category to get in on name recognition alone. I doubt voters watch this show, and looking at the episode, I feel like Dianne Wiest will be the preferred therapist. I think Alexander has no shot at all.

CANDICE BERGEN, BOSTON LEGAL (The Mighty Rogues)
Bergen is wholly undeserving of a nomination because she’s really just not good on the show. Unfortunately, her episode submission and the lack of any solid competition in the category all but guarantee her the nomination. Her episode is uber-serious without the usual comedy of “Boston Legal”, but that doesn’t mean it’s a good performance. I’d be thrilled if she got snubbed, but I’m not that hopeful.

ROSE BYRNE, DAMAGES (Because I Know Patty)
First off, this is the worst case of category fraud I think I’ve ever seen. She’s most definitely the lead, and usually more front-and-center than Close. Aside from that, Byrne is awful. I’ve written about this many, many times. Luckily for her, she submitted the finale, which represents the best showcase of her acting, however bad, and should have no problem getting in once voters see all the actresses who got in based just on name recognition. Her poor acting will be a refreshing change for them.

JILL CLAYBURGH, DIRTY SEXY MONEY (The Watch)
Clayburgh is great, don’t get me wrong, but she definitely got in based on her reputation and not necessarily the show, given all the other terrific performers on the snow snubbed (most notably, Peter Krause, Donald Sutherland, and Natalie Zea – the only ones with a decent shot at breaking into their respective top tens). Clayburgh chose a great episode which perfectly suits the tone of the show. I don’t she’ll be able to make it in, though, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see her name called on Emmy nomination day.

SHARON GLESS, BURN NOTICE (Identity) (not pictured)
Did anyone even know that Gless was on a TV show these days? Gless is an eight-time nominee and two-time winner, but I’m sure the caliber of her work was much higher way back when than it is on “Burn Notice”. Voters did love Lacey on “Judging Amy”, but I’m almost positive that Gless ranked dead last on the popular vote and she’s just not in enough of her episode to merit a mention. She’s fine in the episode, but it’s not a role worthy of awards. I’d rank her eleventh.

RACHEL GRIFFITHS, BROTHERS & SISTERS (Domestic Issues)
Watching “Brothers & Sisters” is always painful for me partially because the show is terrible, but also because Griffiths’ role is so limiting as compared to her incredible work on “Six Feet Under” for which she somehow only got nominated for two Emmys (she was eligible for four; no one from the cast ever won, save for guest star Patricia Clarkson). I wrote last year that it might serve her well that she’s infinitely better than the rest of the cast rather than equally stellar, but I think she’s in no matter what. Her episode is a good submission choice, with serious issues of having her children taken away. She has a decent shot at winning, too, especially if voters are over “Grey’s Anatomy”.

CHRISTINA HENDRICKS, MAD MEN (Babylon)
Hendricks was an entirely surprising inclusion over the expected January Jones. Regardless, Hendricks does do great work on the show and it’s nice to see a player like her get recognized. She chose a fitting episode, but I don’t think she’s well known enough to battle the popularity of the older stars in this category and she doesn’t have the same freshman-show buzz as Rose Byrne. If voters really go wild for “Mad Men”, there’s a chance Hendricks gets in, but I highly doubt it.

S. EPATHA MERKERSON, LAW & ORDER (Bottomless)
Merkerson is one actress who has absolutely no business being in the top ten. Maybe she was great a few years ago (I just saw an old episode of “Law & Order” where Sam Waterston’s pretty energetic and terrific), but no longer. She’s hardly in any of the episodes, and it’s as bland a performance as can be. Her submitted episode belongs to guest star Ron Canada, who missed out on his top ten placement, but more importantly, it’s a good storyline for her character. The actress doesn’t play it well, just like another “Law & Order” franchise member this year (Mariska Hargitay). Count her out, at least I hope. She does not deserve it.

SANDRA OH, GREY’S ANATOMY (The Becoming)
Oh is the only “Grey’s Anatomy” star to have been nominated for the show’s entire run, and in a field that this year includes veteran actresses with near-cameos and unknown first-time players, Oh is as good as locked for a fourth nomination. Her episode submission, however, is rather poor in my mind. She’s far less in-your-face irritating than in some of her costars’ submitted episodes, but she’s hardly in it, hardly says a word, and sings randomly. The problem is, I don’t see which of the other six actresses in this top eleven takes her spot. Any thoughts?

DIANNE WIEST, IN TREATMENT (submission unknown)
Two-time Oscar winner Wiest got in over newbie Mia Wasikowska, who with a much showier role (and truthfully, better-acted) might have had a better shot at securing a nomination had she made the top ten. Wiest is fine, but she appropriately allows Gabriel Byrne to dominate most of their episodes together. And if she submitted an episode with Michelle Forbes in it, it’s likely voters will altogether forget about Wiest and write-in Forbes’ name (I’m sure that’s not allowed). If only we knew the episode…I don’t think she’ll make it in anyhow.

CHANDRA WILSON, GREY’S ANATOMY (Lay Your Hands on Me)
I never quite got the hype for Wilson. I guess you might have to be a devoted “Grey’s Anatomy” fan to understand what’s so special about her. In any case, she’s in without question based on her episode submission. While I don’t think she handles it terribly well, it’s a part practically written for an Emmy, where her young son is brought into the emergency room. Especially with (practically) no competition from other “Grey’s Anatomy” stars, she’s in.

Current predictions:
CANDICE BERGEN, BOSTON LEGAL
ROSE BYRNE, DAMAGES
RACHEL GRIFFITHS, BROTHERS & SISTERS
SANDRA OH, GREY’S ANATOMY
CHANDRA WILSON, GREY’S ANATOMY

Emmy Predictions: Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Listed below are the eleven semi-finalists for this category. Episodes submitted by performers are listed in parentheses after their names. Beware of minor spoilers for the episodes described. Nominees are pictured in order of likelihood of getting nominated, and listed below alphabetically.

Notably missing: Terry O’Quinn (Lost), Henry Ian Cusick (Lost), Donald Sutherland (Dirty Sexy Money), John Laroquette (Boston Legal – and I’m now convinced he would have gotten nominated with his episode had he made the top ten)

NAVEEN ANDREWS, LOST (The Economist)
I’m proud that I correctly called this inclusion. Now that Andrews did make it in and costars O’Quinn and Cusick didn’t, he should be considered a relative force with which to be reckoned. He turns in a terrific performance in his episode, and while he had a surprisingly small role this season, he really kicked ass in his flash-forward. Costar Michael Emerson will definitely rank higher than him, but previous nominee Andrews (for the show’s first season) has a decent shot at spoiling.

BRUCE DERN, BIG LOVE (Good Guys and Bad Guys)
I had no idea Bruce Dern was even on “Big Love”. As I stated in regards to Jeanne Tripplehorn, I don’t plan to watch submitted episodes of “Big Love” because I’ve only seen the pilot and may one day opt to get into the show, but more importantly – Dern has no chance. Irrespective of whether he’s insanely good in his episode, he won’t rank above Emerson, Danson, Slattery, Underwood, Clemenson, Shatner, or Andrews. I’ve also heard that Dern was hardly in season two and played a much more relevant role in the show’s first season. It’s sort of like that expression – “the nomination is the win” – only Dern stays here. His top ten placement is his consolation prize.

CHRISTIAN CLEMENSON, BOSTON LEGAL (Roe vs. Wade, The Musical)
This is Clemenson’s first time competing in this category after two consecutive nominations in the guest actor category (and a win the first time). Clemenson’s performance is definitely goofy and many find it to be too gimmicky. His episode choice gives him a good, somewhat moving monologue but shortens the comic moments of his performance so that it seems very much out of place. I got used to it by seeing Clemenson in all of his costars’ submitted episodes, but I don’t think Clemenson can break through this year with this episode. The awkward hug at the end can’t help.

TED DANSON (Jesus, Mary, and Joe Cocker)
Danson returns to television for one of the most well-reviewed shows of the year. While I wouldn’t include him on my personal ballot, it’s a meaty role and he plays it well. I do agree with many forum posters who have said that he should have gone with “Sort of Like A Family” as his episode, due to one incredible scene in it, but he’ll be fine with the show’s second installment, where his character starts being humanized. The actor who got nominated for an Emmy for all eleven seasons of “Cheers” is a lock for this year.

MICHAEL EMERSON, LOST (The Shape of Things to Come)
After a somewhat uncertain chance at a nomination last year did in fact result in one, Emerson is now a frontrunner for another nomination and possibly the win. He was consistently excellent this year, and his episode submission is amazing. Watching his daughter get murdered and then promising to track down Widmore’s daughter at the end of the episode are the kind of moments that people win Emmys for. He’s in for a nomination, especially without costars O’Quinn and Cusick to contend with, it’s all just a matter of whether he can beat Danson and Underwood.

ZELJKO IVANEK, DAMAGES (I Hate These People)
This one did come as sort of a surprise – I’m not sure anyone quite realized how popular “Damages” would be with voters (see: Peter Riegert in the guest actor category). Ivanek is a terrific actor, his best role being Andre Drazen on the first season of “24”. Here he does a commendable enough job, but his accent is pretty terrible and that made me not like him, so it’s possible voters will feel the same way. He will probably be overshadowed by costar Ted Danson, but keep in mind that Mark Wahlberg garnered an unexpected Oscar nomination over far more well-known and respected actor Jack Nicholson for “The Departed”. Additionally, Ivanek’s episode is incredible. Except for that accent, which I think will ultimately do him in.

T.R. KNIGHT, GREY’S ANATOMY (Freedom, Parts 1 & 2)
No! I watched “Freedom” before it came out that Knight had submitted it, because it was the series’ submission. Knight just runs around squawking the entire time about how he’s the Chief’s intern and it’s one of the most grating things I’ve ever seen. Chyler Leigh’s not exactly a great scene partner (particularly in this episode, sometime she’s better), but I assume that it’s got to be better than that Izzie-George incest I heard about from the first half of the season. Knight was not deserving of a nomination last year, and for him to be included again this year over anyone else would be a real shame.

WILLIAM SHATNER, BOSTON LEGAL (Mad About You)
He’s never going away. Shatner was funny when he guest-starred on “The Practice” back in 2004 during its final episodes, but his whole act got pretty old shortly into the first season of “Boston Legal”. Most importantly, it’s not a dramatic performance. What’s annoying is that he always manages to pick out an episode which makes it seem like he’s a really good actor by manipulating the story, like last year with inserted footage of Shatner from an old courtroom drama to draw out a connection to his father. This year he pretty much commands the episode, and I’m all but certain he’ll get nominated again.

JOHN SLATTERY, MAD MEN (Long Weekend)
Slattery has been bouncing around a number of TV shows over the past couple of years, notably “Jack & Bobby” a few years back, as well as appearing in the first half of this season of “Desperate Housewives”. He’s perfectly cast on “Mad Men” as the sleazy but likable advertising firm partner Roger Sterling. His episode is what really does it for him – having a heart attack and realizing what’s most important to him. I thought he’d be ranked sixth after Underwood, but with Henry Ian Cusick out of the picture, I think he’s in for a nomination. And boy do Emmy voters seem to love “Mad Men”.

BLAIR UNDERWOOD, IN TREATMENT (Alex: Week 6)
Underwood, like Slattery, has been on everything lately. He failed to pick up Emmy nominations for his work years ago on “L.A. Law” or “Sex and the City”, and he’s currently moonlighting on both “The New Adventures of Old Christine” and “Dirty Sexy Money”. Underwood is incredible on “In Treatment”, and while I would have had him submit he previous week’s episode, this is a killer episode for him. It’s also one that’s sure to appeal to Emmy voters, and I think it’s highly improbable that Underwood will be snubbed.

JAKE WEBER, MEDIUM (Wicked Game, Part 1) (not pictured)
Say what? If this was an award for acting better than Patricia Arquette, Weber might be eligible, but an Emmy? I know that many “Medium” fans have always raved about his performance and I guess those same people happen to be Emmy voters. He’s sort of a waste of space, but I suppose people love them a supportive husband. His episode, however, is horrendous. He just comes off as dumb. He’s terrible, and I cannot hope to understand why anyone would vote for him.

Current predictions:
TED DANSON, DAMAGES
MICHAEL EMERSON, LOST
WILLIAM SHATNER, BOSTON LEGAL
JOHN SLATTERY, MAD MEN
BLAIR UNDERWOOD, IN TREATMENT

Emmy Predictions: Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Listed below are the ten semi-finalists for this category. Episodes submitted by performers are listed in parentheses after their names. Beware of minor spoilers for the episodes described. Nominees are pictured in order of likelihood of getting nominated, and listed below alphabetically.

Notably missing: Teri Hatcher (Desperate Housewives), Patricia Heaton (Back to You)

CHRISTINA APPLEGATE, SAMANTHA WHO? (The Restraining Order)
I’m sort of surprised that Applegate’s still a contender since I figured her new hot status would peter out by this point. Regardless, she’s gotten Golden Globe and SAG nominations, and despite losing both times to Tina Fey, I think she’s very much capable of making it in to the top five. She also won an Emmy for her guest turn on “Friends”, a far less funny performance. I think Emmy voters want to reward her for her work in television rather than on any specific show. Her episode choice is fine, though in my mind it hardly matters. She’s pretty much the same in all of them – overplaying it a bit, but still remaining endearing enough to keep viewers from wanting to strangle her.

MARCIA CROSS, DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES (Now You Know)
I’m predicting a complete “Housewives” snub (especially after the show and Dana Delany didn’t even make it into the top tens), but that’s not really a good way of gauging the individual contenders. Cross, nominated only for the show’s first season, where her deserved win for the second half of the season got caught with Teri Hatcher’s deserved win for the first and somehow ended up in an unfortunate victory for Felicity Huffman, missed out last year partly due to her real-life pregnancy and absence from most of the season. This year, she’s back and faking a pregnancy, a shtick that got old really quick. I’d much prefer her getting in over Huffman, but for some reason Huffman seems to have voters in her pocket.

AMERICA FERRERA, UGLY BETTY (Odor in the Court)
Ferrera won this award last year when her show was overwhelmingly popular. Some have speculated that buzz has gone down so much that she might be snubbed, but I find that hard to imagine. Her episode choice is entirely respectable, as it showcases her doing what she does best, being awkward, loud, and crazy, all the while still being loveable Betty. I’m sure she won’t win again (take a look at the next contender), but I’m sure she’ll be nominated.

TINA FEY, 30 ROCK (Sandwich Day)
Fey is on fire. She won both the Golden Globe and SAG Award this year after accepting the Best Comedy Series trophy at the Emmys last year. She plays the straight woman in a cast of goofy characters, but her episode choice highlights her neurosis and, as pointed out by Cultural Learnings, she demonstrates her ability to eat in it. It’s a great choice, and barring some unforeseen love for Christina Applegate, I think Fey will take this one home for the win. Voters really want to reward her for her years of work in television comedy, and that can’t hurt.

ANNA FRIEL, PUSHING DAISIES (Bitter Sweets)
This is an interesting inclusion since while you’re supposed to really like Friel’s character Chuck, I’ve found something very irritating about her since the very beginning. She’s not funny, which I think will hurt her just as much as costar Lee Pace, and most of all, she’s just not well known. Unless Emmy voters go nuts for “Pushing Daisies”, Friel will surely rank after most of the Housewives, Parker, Dreyfus, Applegate, Ferrera, and Frey. Her episode choice shows her character’s serious side which is a downside in this category (not if you ask Felicity Huffman, though).

FELICITY HUFFMAN, DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES (Now I Know, Don’t Be Scared)
I liked Huffman when I first saw her guest-starring on episodes of the short-lived but terrific legal drama “The D.A.” back in 2004 before “Desperate Housewives” started. I even liked her in the show’s first season. But she’s always been horrendously overrated. She’s saddled with overwhelmingly depressing plotlines, one after another, and I get annoyed by her. Her episode features stupid humor about shooting possums and certainly doesn’t merit a nomination (her plotline isn’t even listed in the episode description). Regardless of how I feel about her, looking at the contenders and their chances, she still comes up sixth.

EVA LONGORIA, DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES (In Buddy’s Eyes)
Along with a good portion of the world, I’m quite surprised that Longoria made it in over more respected costar Teri Hatcher. I’m happy for her since I think she was the strongest actress in seasons 2 and 3 and never got credit for it, but this season? Her episode choice is especially representative of what I didn’t like about her character this year – her casual, horrible lack of caring or anything for her newly blind husband. Am I equating Longoria too much with the fate of her character? Perhaps, but she’s done better in the past. In any case, this isn’t her year to get nominated. Ever heard of Courteney Cox or Kristin Davis?

JULIA LOUIS-DREYFUS, THE NEW ADVENTURES OF OLD CHRISTINE (One and a Half Men)
Louis-Dreyfus is pretty terrible on her equally terrible show, but for some inexplicable reason, people LOVE it and I’ve read many posts decrying her show’s snub since it’s apparently the funniest show on TV. Hmm, no one told me. Anyway, her episode is a good showcase for what voters seem to like, showing her going batty because she thinks she’s going through menopause and threatening mothers who tell their kids not to dance with her son. Her reunion with “Seinfeld” costar Jason Alexander is a reminder of better times, and may serve well to sway voters unconvinced, like me, by her performance.

MARY-LOUISE PARKER, WEEDS (Bill Sussman)
Watching every episodes this season of “Weeds”, I thought Parker was absolutely incredible. She should be the default winner in my mind, but I know better than to hope for that. Many are grumbling that she’s likely to be snubbed, but I truly hope that doesn’t happen. One thing to remember is that she’s only actually been nominated once, and that was last year. I can’t actually remember her specific episode (I’ll re-watch it if I get a chance), but she really deserves to be nominated again. I’m fine with Fey for the win, but she needs to at least be recognized.

SARAH SILVERMAN, THE SARAH SILVERMAN PROGRAM (Bored of the Rings)
Wow, Sarah Silverman in the top ten. It’s very exciting until you realize that her show is one of the worst things on television (not as bad at “’Til Death”, sure). She’s a funny comedienne but this is not a good showcase of her work. She comes across as idiotic and obnoxious without any redeeming qualities or humor to make up for it. There is absolutely no way she is getting nominated – the episode ends with a rather unconventional spontaneous abortion involving a male and a sword. Emmy voters will not go for that. Look for in the Guest Actress category, maybe, but not here.

Current predictions:
CHRISTINA APPLEGATE, SAMANTHA WHO?
AMERICA FERRERA, UGLY BETTY
TINA FEY, 30 ROCK
JULIA LOUIS-DREYFUS, OLD CHRISTINE
MARY-LOUISE PARKER, WEEDS

Emmy Predictions: Best Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Listed below are eight of the ten semi-finalists for this category. The other haven’t been revealed yet. I’ll post an update if they come out. Episodes submitted by performers are listed in parentheses after their names. Beware of minor spoilers for the episodes described. Nominees are pictured in order of likelihood of getting nominated, and listed below alphabetically.

ALEC BALDWIN, 30 ROCK (Rosemary’s Baby)
“30 Rock” is wildly popular with Emmy voters, and the only reason Baldwin didn’t win last year was a poor episode choice (the finale). This year, he’s rectified that mistake by picking an episode with a single clip that should win him the Emmy. Playing Tracy Morgan’s parents and a colorful cast of other characters in a wacky but hilarious therapy session should seal him the win, but there’s no question that he’ll be nominated.

STEVE CARRELL, THE OFFICE (Goodbye, Toby)
Carrell initially picked a terrible episode as his submission (Branch Wars), which did not showcase him in any special light and could have led to a surprising snub. Luckily, he’s switched to the one-hour season finale, where he’s both funny and has some dramatic scenes. It was never really likely that he would be snubbed, but now it’s certain he’ll get in for a nomination.

LARRY DAVID, CURB YOUR ENTHUSIASM (The Bat Mitzvah)
David has been nominated for an Emmy for the past three seasons of “Curb” though the show didn’t air during the eligibility period last year. He should be able to return to the lineup, especially given the recent love for the somewhat similar Tina Fey (by that I mean the style of the acting and the role). His episode puts him in a typical pickle, facing repercussions after insensitively mocking people left and right. I think he’s safe.

DAVID DUCHOVNY, CALIFORNICATION (The Last Waltz)
Duchovny was only actually nominated for two Emmys for “The X-Files”, though he made it into the Guest Comedy Actor category twice, once for “The Larry Sanders Show” and the other time for “Life with Bonnie”. I worry that he might be left off because it’s occasionally a more dramatic performance, but his recent Golden Globe win and that big movie coming out in three weeks should push him to the top of the pile. His submission (the finale) is great, but it might be tough to understand his character’s back story without the rest of the season in mind.

BRAD GARRETT, ‘TIL DEATH (Swimming with Starks)
This has got to be one of the worst shows on television. Getting through this episode was unbearable. The plot is almost as devastatingly predictable as the jokes. Garrett tries hard enough, I suppose, but he’s overshadowed by J.B. Smoove in his chosen episode (and in a bad way! Watch “Curb” if you want to see Smoove act well!). Worst of all, the episode doesn’t allow Garrett any opportunity for physical comedy, something he’s quite good at, instead showing him flopping around in a pool. What a waste. No chance.

LEE PACE, PUSHING DAISIES (Pie-lette/Pilot)
Pace’s nomination really depends on whether voters like his show. It’s a very reserved performance and I initially commented that I enjoyed him a lot more in “Wonderfalls” a few years back when he was much more excitable. If his show gets in for Best Comedy Series, he might have a shot, but there’s no way he’s in without his show. He picked a good episode, but I think he’ll sit this one out.

TONY SHALHOUB, MONK (Mr. Monk and the Naked Man)
Most Emmy forum posters despise Shalhoub for his continuous victories, but I really think that he’s deserving. Much as Alec Baldwin and Steve Carrell really do need to win Emmys soon, Shalhoub is absolutely deserving of a nomination. His episode choice is wise, as he’s trading more dramatic fare (like the two-part season finale) for outright comedy (what could bug Monk more than a nudist?). I think he’ll get in again.

CHARLIE SHEEN, TWO AND A HALF MEN (Is There a Mrs. Waffles?)
Sheen is constantly referred to in forums as the worst actor on television, yet he’s managed to get nominated the past two years. While it was funny to begin with, there are far more deserving candidates out there (most of the top 10, save for Garrett) and he really has no business being nominated. That said, his episode is actually a good one as it highlights a different side of him (writing kids’ songs) rather than the stale episode submitted for the show (Charlie’s a womanizer? No way!). It’s Sheen, David, and Duchovny for those last two slots after Baldwin, Carrell, and Shalhoub. I think Sheen misses the cut.

So, who are the final two, and more importantly, does it matter?

My original predictions, besides Kelsey Grammer, who has been confirmed as not being on the list, were Zach Braff (Scrubs) and Jason Lee (My Name is Earl), but I’m beginning to doubt their chances given snubs in comedy series (Scrubs) and supporting actress (Jaime Pressly of “Earl”). I’d love to see either of the “Flight of the Conchords” duo make it in, as well as James Roday from “Psych”. I’d otherwise suspect the overrated Ted Radnor (How I Met Your Mother), Jim Parsons (The Big Bang Theory) or either Adrien Grenier or Kevin Connolly from “Entourage”. Regardless, none of that group can rank higher than Baldwin, Carrell, David, Duchovny, Shalhoub, and Sheen and likely not higher than Lee Pace. Brad Garrett is dead last no matter what, but I’d pick out Kevin Connolly and James Roday to fill those last two slots.

Current predictions:
ALEC BALDWIN, 30 ROCK
STEVE CARRELL, THE OFFICE
LARRY DAVID, CURB YOUR ENTHUSIASM
DAVID DUCHOVNY, CALIFORNICATION
TONY SHALHOUB, MONK

Emmy Predictions: Best Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Listed below are the ten semi-finalists for this category. Episodes submitted by performers are listed in parentheses after their names. Beware of minor spoilers for the episodes described. Nominees are pictured in order of likelihood of getting nominated, and listed below alphabetically.

Notably missing: Evangeline Lilly (Lost), Ellen Pompeo (Grey’s Anatomy)

PATRICIA ARQUETTE, MEDIUM (Aftertaste)
I’ve written many times about the horrid inclusion of one of the worst performances on television in this category. Arquette returned to the lineup last year after what I had hoped was a fluke, and it’s extremely possible she’ll be back again this year. Her submission makes little sense, as it’s not a meaty episode for her and she’s barely in it. This category had six nominees last year, and even this year’s lineup is super-sized again, I doubt she’ll make it in.

GLENN CLOSE, DAMAGES (Pilot)
Close doesn’t do nearly as much as she’s given credit for on this show, but two things are certain: voters love this show, recognizing all the lead performers and even recurring guest star Peter Reigert; and Glenn Close is a powerhouse actress. She’s in, that’s for sure, the question now is whether she’ll win. A question for another time.

MINNIE DRIVER, THE RICHES (Dead Calm)
Driver made it in for “The Riches” last year with what I considered a relatively poor submission, and she’s infinitely better in this year’s episode. It is a pretty out-there episode and her character is high as a kite on drugs, but Driver handles it magnificently. My fear is that the show’s popularity has slipped, but I do hope she’ll get in once again.

SALLY FIELD, BROTHERS & SISTERS (History Repeating)
Field does not have enough in this episode to merit a nomination. Additionally, I happen to think she’s actually pretty bad on the show. I’m shocked to find myself agreeing with some other people who say that Calista Flockhart, who’s pretty annoying herself, would be far more deserving of a nod this year. Sadly, I’m confident that Field will make it in again; I just hope she doesn’t walk away with another win over Sedgwick or Driver.

MARISKA HARGITAY, LAW & ORDER: SVU (Undercover)
I thought Hargitay was rather good in the episode she won for two years ago (“911”) but I wasn’t nearly as impressed here. She goes undercover and almost gets raped, and it’s a role that should win an award, but I didn’t like her performance much. Emmy voters may not agree with me. Her situation of figuring into awards was a bit strange, with a sudden appearance on the SAG nominees list back in 2003, followed by a Golden Globe win the following year, and four Emmy nominations since. I think once she’s out, she won’t ever return. Unless there are 6 nominees this year, I don’t see her being one of them.

HOLLY HUNTER, SAVING GRACE (Taco, Tulips, Duck, and Spices)
Hunter is that other Oscar favorite powerhouse actress on a new cable show. While neither she nor her show might have nearly as much buzz as Close or “Damages”, Hunter turns in a commendable performance. The fact that she’s far better than her show probably helps rather than hurts her. Her episode is a good showcase of both her comedic skills and the anger she can muster up in seconds. The twang certainly isn’t a negative for Sedgwick. I’d consider her safe after Golden Globe and SAG nods.

ELISABETH MOSS, MAD MEN (The Hobo Code)
Moss’ inclusion is somewhat of a surprise, considering she isn’t really a lead on the show and in my opinion is probably the weakest member of the cast. Her chances are extremely slim despite the popularity of the show. She’s less than half the age of a good portion of the other contenders in this category, and I think it will be a good long while before, if ever, she makes the cut. Her episode choice is smart, but she’s pretty unlikable so I doubt that coupled with her age will play out well.

MARY MCDONNELL, BATTLESTAR GALACTICA (Faith)
I predicted her inclusion, but I was sort of going out a limb. She’s on an immensely genre show whose very shocking inclusion in last year’s directing and writing races encouraged me to get into the series. It’s exciting but a little bittersweet considering she’s not actually the strongest member of the cast (Tricia Helfer, James Callis, or Katee Sackhoff in another season). Regardless, this is the closest she’s ever been to getting nominated, and her episode choice is spot-on (cancer ward). Hey, if “Star Trek: The Next Generation” could get nominated for Best Drama Series its final season, why doesn’t McDonnell have a shot? This field is too competitive, in my mind, and she’s ahead of only Tripplehorn and Moss. I’d love to predict her though, and rest assured, if she gets nominated, fans are going to go CRAZY.

KYRA SEDGWICK, THE CLOSER (Manhunt)
Sedgwick’s one of those people who’s pretty much locked in for a nomination at this point, though she somehow still hasn’t won an Emmy. Her episode is a good choice, mixing action with the comedic reaction to her menopause. There’s little more to say, except that, other than Sally Field (barring a shocking snub), she’s the only safe returning nominee. And sadly, this is likely Glenn Close’s year to win.

JEANNE TRIPPLEHORN, BIG LOVE (Take Me As I Am)
I haven’t actually see this episode since this is one of the shows (along with “The Tudors” and “The Wire”) that I’ve chosen not to screen episodes from since I’ve only seen the pilot and might at one point get into it chronologically, but now is not that time. I don’t think Tripplehorn has a very good shot because she’s not as popular as the big seven (last year’s nominees Sedgwick, Field, Arquette, and Driver as well as newcomers Close and Hunter) and no one’s clamoring for a nomination for her as much as for McDonnell. Her show didn’t make it into the top ten for Best Drama Series, and I’d also imagine she often gets overshadowed by her female costars/wives.

Current predictions:
GLENN CLOSE, DAMAGES
MINNIE DRIVER, THE RICHES
SALLY FIELD, BROTHERS & SISTERS
HOLLY HUNTER, SAVING GRACE
KYRA SEDGWICK, THE CLOSER

Emmy Predictions: Best Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Listed below are the ten semi-finalists for this category. Episodes submitted by performers are listed in parentheses after their names. Beware of minor spoilers for the episodes described. Nominees are pictured in order of likelihood of getting nominated, and listed below alphabetically.

Notably missing: Matthew Fox (Lost), Jonathan Rhys-Meyers (The Tudors)

GABRIEL BYRNE, IN TREATMENT (Paul and Gina: Week 4)
Byrne is HBO’s sole representative in this category for his portrayal of a therapist with several very intense patients. His submission shows him at a session with his own therapist, and it’s an excellent showcase of all his anger bubbling up and coming out. Acting opposite Dianne Wiest and holding his own can’t hurt his chances. His show is pretty small, but his should play really well.

KYLE CHANDLER, FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS (Last Day of Summer)
This is Chandler’s second year in the top ten after an impressive top ten presence by the show led to a great big nothing come nomination time. I’m a bit perplexed by his submission. He has very little to do, and the fact that he’s only back for a bit from a far-off assignment made little sense to me, and I’m sure voters will feel the same way. I’d easily rank him dead last.

BRYAN CRANSTON, BREAKING BAD (Pilot)
Cranston got nominated for a few Emmys in the supporting comedy actor category for his performance on “Malcolm in the Middle.” The good news for him is that he’s really acting much more in this show. It took me a few episodes to warm up to the idea of him and to the show, and voters may feel the same way. It’s definitely an odd show and a bizarre role, so my money is on Byrne to make it in for slot number five over Cranston.

PATRICK DEMPSEY, GREY’S ANATOMY (Freedom, Parts 1 & 2)
McDreamy made it into the top ten, but I highly doubt he’ll be able to crack the final five. Besides being generally useless, he doesn’t do much of anything in his submitted episode. His somewhat meaty plotline, operating on cancer patients, is completely stolen by guest star Jurnee Smollett. Yelling at Meredith that she kills patients probably doesn’t help his cause. If you’re not a “Grey’s Anatomy” fan, I doubt you care about the Mer-Der relationship (as I believe it’s termed), and the end-of-episode resolution should therefore be pretty inconsequential.

MICHAEL C. HALL, DEXTER (There’s Something About Harry)
Hall is so good on this show that it really doesn’t matter which episode he submitted. In his episode, he is dealing with realizing the role he played in his father’s death, and also debating his morals in dealing with a certain hostage of his who knows his true identity. I’ve heard voters really don’t like the violence of the show, and he somehow got snubbed last year, but I can’t imagine that his popularity and the strength of his acting can keep him from getting a nomination this year.

JON HAMM, MAD MEN (The Wheel)
Hamm fully inhabits the role of advertising executive Don Draper, perfectly fitting into the 1960s background and culture. His show is insanely popular and older voters I’m sure will love him. He does a great job in his episode submission, the season finale, struggling with issues of work over family and the like. I cannot imagine a scenario where he doesn’t make the final lineup.

EDDIE IZZARD, THE RICHES (Last Temptation of Wayne)
Izzard is unconditionally excellent, but if he didn’t get nominated last year with his unbelievably amazing submission of the pilot, I don’t think he ever will. He’s running around frantically trying to deal with problems in this year’s season premiere, and he certainly commands the screen. I’d love to see him get rewarded, but I’d rank him least likely only after Chandler and Dempsey.

HUGH LAURIE, HOUSE (House’s Head)
Laurie’s in regardless of his episode choice, but he did choose very well. In part one of the season finale, House has to attempt to retrieve his memory and save a dying patient. The episode’s memory flashbacks are a bit gimmicky, but it works well enough and gives Laurie just the right mix of humor (diagnosing patients with random diseases to keep them in the hospital) and drama (actually recalling the bus crash). He’s in.

DENIS LEARY, RESCUE ME (Babyface)
Leary’s been nominated the past two years running, and it stands to reason he’d get in again this year. His submission is great, the season premiere riding the coattails of an excellent season last year. Perhaps I’m letting my impression of the latter half of the season affect me too much, but I think Leary may fall out this year. Michael Chiklis of “The Shield”, another FX series, only got nominated twice. My bet is that Byrne or Cranston takes Leary’s spot this year.

JAMES SPADER, BOSTON LEGAL (The Court Supreme)
I was very happy when Spader picked up a surprise win for “The Practice” four years ago but I’ve gotten rather tired of his whole shtick and his continual victories over more deserving winners. His episode all but guarantees him another submission, with a lengthy speech (I believe some timed it at ten minutes) yelling at the Supreme Court. He’s in for a nomination, hopefully not the win over Hall or Hamm.

Current predictions:
GABRIEL BYRNE, IN TREATMENT
MICHAEL C. HALL, DEXTER
JON HAMM, MAD MEN
HUGH LAURIE, HOUSE
JAMES SPADER, BOSTON LEGAL

Updated Emmy Predictions Coming Soon

Tom O'Neil over at GoldDerby has been providing full top 10 lists for each of the acting categories for this year's Emmy Awards. At this point, he's still missing three of the Best Comedy Actor finalists as well as three of the guest acting categories. As far as what's been revealed so far, I've done pretty well in my predictions, averaging about 8/10 in most categories. The category where I did the worst was Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series, where name recognition really dominated, some horrendously undeserving (Sharon Gless, S. Epatha Merkerson), others not quite as bad (Jill Clayburgh, Dianne Wiest), and where Christina Hendricks (Joan) made it in over January Jones (Betty) for "Mad Men". Out of the "Lost" crowd, Terry O'Quinn (Locke) was pretty surprisingly snubbed, after winning last year, as well as Henry Ian Cusick (Desmond). The only two "Lost" cast members to get in were Michael Emerson (Ben) and Naveen Andrews (Sayid - I'm proud to say that I did call this one!). The most surprising but in my mind fantastic omission is that of Jaime Pressly from "My Name is Earl", another winner last year. In the category of Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series, Kristin Chenoweth, Jean Smart, and SNL's Amy Poehler made it in over the unfortunately snubbed Becki Newton (Ugly Betty) and Dana Delany (Desperate Housewives). Teri Hatcher was also snubbed in favor of "Desperate Housewives" costar Eva Longoria.

The most suprising inclusions came in the Best Actress fields - Sarah Silverman in comedy, and Mary McDonnell for "Battlestar Galactica" in drama. The latter is a much more exciting inclusion, even though I'd have preferred another BSG costar like Tricia Helfer or Katee Sackhoff in another year, but I'll take what I can get. Her episode submission is strong, so there's a slight possibility she could be one of the final five (anyone?).

I'm watching as many of the submitted episodes as I can, save for certain shows I simply won't watch because I haven't seen any of the show (The Tudors, The Wire, Big Love) or others I may not be able to get my hands on (Tell Me You Love Me). I'll be posting detailed analysis for every category soon. Stay tuned! Have a great July 4th weekend!