Emmy Race: Best Lead Actress in a Drama Series

The Emmy Award nominations are still a few weeks away, but this year looks to be even more competitive in all the major categories than last year when the switch was made from five to six nominees in the regular acting categories and series categories. At this point, I’d like to offer a rundown of the potential nominees, revisiting my predictions in early July. I’ve placed contenders in specific groupings that speak to their history and chances.

Last year’s nominees:

GLENN CLOSE as PATTY HEWES, DAMAGES (2 nominations/2 wins)
The reigning champ in this derby will definitely be back for another round in the ring. Just as cutthroat attorney Patty Hewes shows no signs of weakening, the five-time Oscar-nominated actress isn’t going anywhere either. Once she gets nominated, she will face some major competition and will almost certainly lose to Julianna Marguiles. Nonetheless, she’s locked for a nomination.

SALLY FIELD as NORA WALKER, BROTHERS & SISTERS (3 nominations/1 win)
Field has managed to stay in this race for the past three years, and her odds of returning are up in the air. The show may not be doing well critically and may be losing the occasional cast member, but voters like her, they really like her. It will take a lot to stop this determined matriarch from returning to the lineup this year, and a number of arguably supporting cable ladies may not be able to manage it (though I certainly hope they can).

MARISKA HARGITAY as OLIVIA STABLER, LAW & ORDER: SVU (6 nominations/1 win)
While she has weaved in and out of the Golden Globe and SAG races, Hargitay has been an Emmy nominee for the past six years running. Since she hasn’t been snubbed before, there’s little reason to think she’ll be left off this time around, especially considering the fact that her show, which has always been the most popular, is now officially the flagship “Law & Order” series. It survived a 9pm move to make room for Jay Leno, and Hargitay should be able to return as a nominee.

HOLLY HUNTER as GRACE HANADARKO, SAVING GRACE (2 nominations)
This summer will mark the end of Hunter’s run as an eccentric cop with an unusual religious connection, and its departure may work in Hunter’s favor. The trouble is, her show hasn’t been on long enough for people to really miss it, and voters may have already grown tired of it, as they did with “Alias,” resulting in Jennifer Garner’s snub during its final year. It could either way for Hunter – she’s facing some pretty tough competition.

ELISABETH MOSS as PEGGY OLSON, MAD MEN (1 nomination)
Moss will likely be nominated this year, but not in this category. She has officially dropped down to the supporting race.

KYRA SEDGWICK as BRENDA LEIGH JOHNSON, THE CLOSER (4 nominations)
It’s hard to believe that Sedgwick, who plays a police chief with a Southern twang and a whole lot of attitude, hasn’t yet won an Emmy. At this point, her prospects to ever get one seem grim since her show is still steamrolling forward. Those who despised her from day one still hate her, while fans may still watch her if they haven’t grown tired of her series. As far as a nomination is concerned, her chances are good. She isn’t completely invulnerable, and could lose out if a newer, fresher faces eclipses her.

New category, new chance?

JANUARY JONES as BETTY DRAPER, MAD MEN
The lovely Mrs. Draper was actually lead last year too, making her prospects all the more lackluster this year. She was shockingly snubbed for both season one and season two, and though she was just as good, if not better, in season three, she’s still at risk of being shut out a third time. Costar Elisabeth Moss is out of the race, however, so she may be able to slide in to fill the vacant “Mad Men” spot.

KATEY SAGAL as GEMMA TELLER MORROW, SONS OF ANARCHY
Now this is one fierce performance that Emmy voters dare not ignore. That doesn’t mean they won’t, of course. FX has a tricky history with the Emmys, and only since “Damages” started up has an FX series even been remotely in the running for a Best Series award. Fortunately, Sagal may have an easier time breaking into the acting categories. Sadly, I wouldn’t count it.

ANNA GUNN as SKYLER WHITE, BREAKING BAD
A former throwaway background character has had a spectacular season at the forefront of AMC’s dark drama. That doesn’t necessarily make her a lead actress, though. Gunn’s placement in this category is a bit odd, and her chances aren’t great. Working in her favor is the clear enthusiasm that voters have for the show, and having her performance seen is the biggest hurdle. Now the question is whether she’ll be considered one of the top six leading ladies of dramatic television.

CONNIE BRITTON as TAMI TAYLOR, FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS
Britton was submitted as a lead for the first season of the show and then dropped down to supporting. So far, nothing as worked as the show has been criminally ignored year after year by Emmy voters. If anything, the lead category is more competitive than the supporting one, so Britton’s chances really aren’t any brighter than they’ve ever been, and hearing her name finally called would be a huge shock.

New blood:

JULIANNA MARGUILES as ALICIA FLORRICK, THE GOOD WIFE
Marguiles won on her first of six nominations for “ER” back in the 1990s, and she has taken home both the Golden Globe and the SAG for her work in the first half of the first season of CBS’ winning new drama. She is unquestionably a lock and can probably take down perennial winner Glenn Close (as mentioned above). You’re nuts if you don’t have her on your list. She’s a shoo-in.

LAUREN GRAHAM as SARAH BRAVERMAN, PARENTHOOD
The former star of “Gilmore Girls” is considered to be one of the most unrewarded actresses on television after failing to reap any Emmy love for her work on that series. The difference now is that she’s on NBC instead of the WB, which increases her chances a million times over. She may have some trouble sneaking past some of her tougher competition, but this is a role that fits her like a glove, and that certainly helps.

MELISSA LEO as TONI BURNETTE, TREME
This actress faces a similar problem to her two leading male costars, Clarke Peters and Wendell Pierce, since the show is so full of memorable characters that it’s tough to stand out. If voters take notice of HBO’s acclaimed new series, Leo could have a real shot. After all, she earned an Oscar nomination for the small independent film “Frozen River” a couple of years ago.

Could this be the year?

ANNA PAQUIN as SOOKIE STACKHOUSE, TRUE BLOOD
After a promising start to the awards season with a Golden Globe win for the show’s freshman year, it quickly fizzled and earned virtually no Emmy love. For season two, SAG nominated the ensemble, so Paquin may encounter greater success this year if voters can open their mind to new genres and embrace the supernatural world of Bon Temps and its resident mind reader.

JEANNE TRIPPLEHORN as BARB HENRICKSON, BIG LOVE
Tripplehorn has yet to be nominated for an Emmy for HBO’s polygamist drama, but things are looking up based on recent events. Last year, her show popped up on the Best Drama Series list for the first time, and then costar Chloe Sevigny beat Jane Lynch for the Golden Globe for Best Supporting Actress on Television. Still, Tripplehorn isn’t likely to displace any of the other contenders this year if she couldn’t in previous years.

EVANGELINE LILLY as KATE AUSTEN, LOST
No actress has ever been nominated for her work on ABC’s trippy cult series, though Lilly likely has the best shot. The onetime Golden Globe nominee was extremely prominent in the show’s final season, and if voters want to express their nostalgic enthusiasm for the departed series, she could ride its popularity to a nomination. That said, it’s not too probable.

The roundup::
This category is far trickier than the lead actor race. Close, Marguiles, and Sedgwick are the only real locks, and the rest is anyone’s guess. It could be truly boring, or it could be really great. Jones is probably in, as are Hargitay and Hunter, leaving out perennial nominee Field as well as the infinitely more deserving duo of Graham and Sagal.

Current predictions:
GLENN CLOSE, DAMAGES
MARISKA HARGITAY, LAW & ORDER: SVU
HOLLY HUNTER, SAVING GRACE
JANUARY JONES, MAD MEN
JULIANNA MARGUILES, THE GOOD WIFE
KYRA SEDGWICK, THE CLOSER

Who could win? Tight race between Close and Marguiles, but Marguiles probably emerges victorious.

Next up: Best Lead Actor in a Comedy Series