Emmy Race: Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

The Emmy Award nominations are still a few weeks away, but this year looks to be even more competitive in all the major categories than last year when the switch was made from five to six nominees in the regular acting categories and series categories. At this point, I’d like to offer a rundown of the potential nominees, revisiting my predictions in early July. I’ve placed contenders in specific groupings that speak to their history and chances.

Last year’s nominees:
ROSE BYRNE as ELLEN PARSONS, DAMAGES (1 nomination)
After missing out for the show’s first year, Byrne made it in last year in one of the worst cases of category fraud ever. This year, however, Byrne’s role has been diminished, and she can now be reasonably considered a supporting actress. Though I found this season to be the best yet, enthusiasm for the show seems to have declined, and Byrne could fall victim to that just as she finally becomes deserving of some commendation.

HOPE DAVIS as MIA, IN TREATMENT (1 nomination)
The spectacular Ms. Davis wrapped her one-season arc on the show, which did not air this season.

CHERRY JONES as PRESIDENT ALLISON TAYLOR, 24 (1 nomination/1 win)
Last year’s champ has elected not to submit herself this year.

SANDRA OH as CRISTINA YANG, GREY’S ANATOMY (5 nominations)
At this point, Oh has been nominated every year her show has been on the air. I don’t watch the show, so I can’t speak to her performance over the past year. I will note, however, that her show was dismissed from the Best Drama Series lineup two years ago, so it’s definitely on its way out. Whether or not Oh is here to stay will be harder to tell.

DIANNE WIEST as GINA, IN TREATMENT (2 nominations/1 win)
Wiest has wrapped her two-season arc on the show, which did not air this season.

CHANDRA WILSON as MIRANDA BAILEY, GREY’S ANATOMY (4 nominations)
Like Oh, I can’t speak much to Wilson’s chances specific to this season. Her advantage over Oh, however, is that she has yet to win for her very showy role on the show. I doubt this is the year for that, but who knows?

Category switch – another nomination?

ELISABETH MOSS as PEGGY OLSON, MAD MEN (1 nomination)
Recognized for her work as a leading actress last year, Moss has dropped down to the supporting category for her stellar work in the show’s third season. Switching categories isn’t a negative – Allison Janney handled it well for “The West Wing” and Rachel Griffiths made the same downward shift for “Six Feet Under” successfully. Considering the number of spots opening up, I wouldn’t worry about Moss’ chances at all.

Past nominees, back for another round?

RACHEL GRIFFITHS as SARAH WALKER, BROTHERS & SISTERS (2 nominations)
Speaking of Rachel Griffiths, she hasn’t been seen since two years ago when last she placed in this category. Since she’s still on the show, there’s always the possibility she might return to the lineup, but it’s not likely, especially considering a new contender from her show who will be mentioned below.

KATHERINE HEIGL as IZZIE STEVENS, GREY’S ANATOMY (1 nomination/1 win)
Heigl won on her first try back in 2007, beating out returning costars Oh and Wilson. The next year, she infamously didn’t submit herself due to issues with the direction of her character. Now, she is back in the race for a small number of episodes from this season. I can’t imagine she’d get nominated after all that, but it’s always a possibility.

Could this be the year?

CALLISTA FLOCKHART as KITTY MCALLISTER, BROTHERS & SISTERS
Flockhart, who back in the day earned three nominations for her leading comedy work on “Ally McBeal,” had been submitted in the lead category for the past three years, but now she’s moving down to supporting. I’ve heard rumblings of her chances, but I don’t imagine that after four years she’d have a shot since the show isn’t nearly as popular as it used to be.

CHRISTINA HENDRICKS as JOAN HOLLOWAY, MAD MEN
The Sterling-Cooper head secretary hasn’t managed to earn a nomination to this point, but it’s about time she does, and I have a feeling that she’ll break through this year. As the show continues to be a critical smash, it’s about time that supporting actors start getting recognized. With Moss down in this category now, perhaps voters will be more inclined to check off Hendricks’ name for her somewhat diminished but still crucial role in this most recent season.

EMILIE DE RAVIN as CLAIRE and YUNJIN KIM as SUN, LOST
As the two resident female “Lost” representatives (don’t count on Zuleikha Robinson as Ilana, and see the guest category for Elizabeth Mitchell), these two have been working hard over the past five to six years, and both played central roles in the final season. I suspect that the supporting actor category is where this show will do very well, but there’s always a chance that nostalgia will work in favor of these two fan favorites.

MARY LYNN RAJSKUB as CHLOE O’BRIAN, 24
If any show has a fan favorite character, it’s this one, and Chloe was front-and-center displaying her “personality disorder” all season long. I think the time for “24” nostalgia has long passed, but perhaps it’s not too late for Rajskub to earn an Emmy nomination before the clock ticks out on her chances forever (though she’ll likely be in the rumored TV movie).

CHLOE SEVIGNY as NICOLETTE GRANT, BIG LOVE
This show came from out of nowhere after earning no major Emmy nods previously to get a Best Drama nod (and not in any other category) last year. Sevigny beat out Jane Lynch for the Golden Globe on her first nomination, but what’s worth noting there is that “Big Love” has been nominated three times for Best Drama Series at the Golden Globes. Still, Sevigny should be seen as a strong contender, so watch out for her.

New blood:

KHANDI ALEXANDER as LADONNA BATISTE-WILLIAMS, TREME
Alexander has been mentioned as a contender by many for her fierce performance of a determined woman searching for her brother, who has been missing since Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans. As it turned out, Alexander didn’t have quite that much screen time during the HBO drama’s first season, and I’m still not convinced that the show will end up on Emmy voters’ radar.

MORENA BACCARIN as ANNA, V
Sci-fi fans know her as Inara from “Firefly,” but the whole world got to see her as the leader of an invading alien race on ABC’s new drama. I don’t think it will really contend at the Emmys, but Baccarin is probably its strongest asset. Sci-fi is a tricky genre with the Emmys, and Mary McDonnell couldn’t pull off a nomination even in her show’s fourthy and final year, so I doubt that Baccarin will be able to do it for the show’s first.

CHRISTINE BARANKSI as DIANE LOCKHART, THE GOOD WIFE
Veteran actress Baranski has six past Emmy nominations, including a win on her first try for her supporting work on “Cybill.” All of her previous nominations have been for comedy, but this role is fairly light and entertaining. The fact that Holland Taylor was able to get nominated – and win – here for her work on “The Practice” suggests to me that Baranski shouldn’t have any trouble, especially considering how well-received and popular her new show has been.

MICHELLE FORBES as MARYANN, TRUE BLOOD
Forbes is an actress much beloved by sci-fi fans for her work on “Star Trek: The Next Generation” and “Battlestar Galactica,” and HBO’s vampire drama may be just the semi-mainstream crossover she needs to finally earn some Emmy attention. She only appeared in a few episodes last season, so now she’s a full-on contender, and could break into this category if voters are open to recognizing someone who plays a mythical creature. Probably not.

ARCHIE PANJABI as KALINDA, THE GOOD WIFE
One of the best scene-stealers on CBS’ powerful new drama is given a huge boost this year by the relative dearth of competition, and Panjabi may just find herself an Emmy nominee. The show is extremely popular and Kalinda is one of the most entertaining and dynamic characters, especially after her work in the season finale. Consider her a potential upset.

The roundup::
Three of last year’s nominees are out to start, which makes this the category to watch in terms of new nominees. Out of Byrne, Oh, and Wilson, none of them are secure, and Moss is probably much safer. Still, I’d bet that they’re all in, joined by Hendricks and Baranski. I’d love to predict Panjabi, but I’m just not sure about it. Hopefully I’ll work up the courage by the time I post my final predictions.

Current predictions:
CHRISTINE BARANSKI, THE GOOD WIFE
ROSE BYRNE, DAMAGES
CHRISTINA HENDRICKS, MAD MEN
ELISABETH MOSS, MAD MEN
SANDRA OH, GREY’S ANATOMY
CHANDRA WILSON, GREY’S ANATOMY

Who could win? I suspect Moss.

Next up: Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series