Emmy Race: Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

The Emmy Award nominations are still a few weeks away, but this year looks to be even more competitive in all the major categories than last year when the switch was made from five to six nominees in the regular acting categories and series categories. At this point, I’d like to offer a rundown of the potential nominees, revisiting my predictions in early July. I’ve placed contenders in specific groupings that speak to their history and chances.

Last year’s nominees:

CHRISTINA APPLEGATE as SAMANTHA NEWLY, SAMANTHA WHO? (2 nominations)
Amazingly enough, this show, which was forever off the air before last year’s Emmy Awards took place, is still eligible because a number of episodes were burned off during the summer, which is considered the new television season. I think that Applegate’s inclusion last time was a miracle, and there’s no way that she’s going to get back in again this time.

TONI COLLETTE as TARA, UNITED STATES OF TARA (1 nomination/1 win)
Winning this award last year and defeating rivals Tina Fey and Edie Falco for the Golden Globe back in January definitely gives Collette an edge and ensures her another chance to compete against the two current leading ladies of comedy. There isn’t much else to say, save for to begin the debate about who is this year’s frontrunner to win.

TINA FEY AS LIZ LEMON, 30 ROCK (3 nominations/1 win)
The star of the most critically-lauded comedy in a long time is a surefire bet to return to the lineup this year after having won her third consecutive SAG Award back in January. The comedy is just as popular as ever, and Fey is primed for another fierce competition with Toni Collette and Edie Falco once she receives her de facto nomination.

JULIA LOUIS-DREYFUS as CHRISTINE, THE NEW ADVENTURES OF OLD CHRISTINE (4 nominations/1 win)
While she’s been left off the Golden Globe and SAG lists a few times over the past two years, don’t expect Louis-Dreyfus to go anywhere just yet. On the heels of the news that her show won’t be returning for another season, it’s extremely likely that she’ll earn a farewell nomination for the same reason she won the first time around: she broke the “Seinfeld” curse, and even though it’s gone now, her show still managed to last five whole years.

MARY LOUISE-PARKER as NANCY BOTWIN, WEEDS (3 nominations)
The suburban pot dealer had her most hectic year yet as she had to deal with being pregnant and trying to stay alive, and the show will be back for a sixth season later this summer. Some are suggesting that Parker’s time has passed, but I think the show has a lot of fans out there, and they welcomed back Elizabeth Perkins last year after one year off the list. I think Parker should be okay.

SARAH SILVERMAN as SARAH SILVERMAN, THE SARAH SILVERMAN PROGRAM (1 nomination)
A shocking inclusion last year now no longer has a show after the plug was pulled on the series, but its most recent season falls under this eligibility period. I think that Silverman’s nomination was a fluke and that she won’t be back. She could just as easily place, though, especially considering the fact that Emmy voters won’t likely have a way to honor her anytime soon now that her racy program is off the air.

Second time’s the charm?

AMY POEHLER as LESLIE KNOPE, PARKS AND RECREATION
Though I loved the first season, most didn’t. It turns out that most people like it now though, and here’s hoping that Emmy voters are a part of that bunch. “The Office” didn’t score any nods for its first six-episode season, so maybe this show will do exactly that and enable two-time nominee Poehler, who this year isn’t eligible for SNL, to earn a leading nomination this time around.

Past nominees, primed for a sentimental comeback?

AMERICA FERRERA as BETTY SUAREZ, UGLY BETTY (2 nominations/1 win)
Three years ago, voters adored her and gave her the Emmy. Last year, they tossed her aside and didn’t even nominate her. Now, Betty is off the airwaves, and it’s possible that the endearing protagonist could return to the lineup as a sign of nostalgia and a tribute to her iconic role as the fashion-handicapped Betty. Considering the number of new leads in this race, however, her prospects aren’t good.

New category, new chance?

TRACEY ULLMAN as VARIOUS CHARACTERS, STATE OF THE UNION
New rules about variety performers had previously relegated Ullman to the supporting categories, but not this time. After landing a surprise SAG nom last year, Ullman may now find herself with an Emmy nod for her variety performance. Watch out for Ullman – the veteran comedienne has eleven Emmy nominations and five trophies. If she can get accepted into this not-quite-appropriate field, she may have a chance.

New blood:

COURTENEY COX as JULES, COUGAR TOWN
The only Friend who never got nominated for an Emmy earned a Golden Globe award for her new ABC comedy, and Cox’s Emmy chances are looking better than they ever have before. Some may find her grating, but others love her and she’ll likely come very close to earning a nomination if she doesn’t quite make it. She could easily end up on the list, though it’s not guaranteed.

EDIE FALCO as JACKIE, NURSE JACKIE
Don’t mess with this woman. While she lost both the Golden Globe and the SAG, to Toni Collette and Tina Fey, respectively, she’s definitely a strong contender to beat them both (Collette won last year, Fey won two years ago) at this year’s Emmy Awards. Back when she starred on HBO’s “The Sopranos,” she earned six nominations for Best Lead Actress in a Drama Series and took home the award three times. She has received excellent mentions for her show, and should be considered a real threat.

LEA MICHELE as RACHEL BERRY, GLEE
The star of FOX’s hit sensation is the first legitimate contender from a musical series in a long time, and it’s tough to guess how she’ll fare. She earned a Golden Globe nomination but not a SAG nod, and now she stands pretty well-posed to take one of the slots that may be left open by actresses whose shows have ended. The show is certainly red-hot, and Michele should be able to ride the show’s momentum to a nomination.

PATRICIA HEATON as FRANKIE, THE MIDDLE
When she was the star of CBS’ long-running comedy “Everybody Loves Raymond,” she earned seven consecutive nominations in this category and won twice. When she returned to the airwaves with FOX’s “Back to You” several years ago, she didn’t earn any awards attention, but the show was also swiftly cancelled. “The Middle” has been greeted as a welcome success, and if the show can break out of the shadow of the more popular “Modern Family,” she may just have a shot.

The roundup::
There are three locks – Fey, Collette, and Falco – but that’s it. The rest of the slots are completely up for grabs. I have a feeling Parker will be able to hold on to her spot given her show’s Best Comedy Series nod last year, whereas the stars of the three cancelled series may be out. Michele is definitely the most likely of the newbies to score a first-time nod, and I think that former Friend Courteney Cox will also find herself finally rewarded. It’s easily possible, however, that Louis-Dreyfus, Applegate, and Silverman (in that order) will be able to hold on to their spots.

Current predictions:
TONI COLLETTE, THE UNITED STATES OF TARA
COURTENEY COX, COUGAR TOWN
EDIE FALCO, NURSE JACKIE
TINA FEY, 30 ROCK
LEA MICHELE, GLEE
MARY-LOUISE PARKER, WEEDS

Who could win? My guess at this point is Falco, though it'll be a tight race with Fey and Collette.

Next up: Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series