Emmy Race: Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

The Emmy Award nominations are still a few weeks away, but this year looks to be even more competitive in all the major categories than last year when the switch was made from five to six nominees in the regular acting categories and series categories. At this point, I’d like to offer a rundown of the potential nominees, revisiting my predictions in early July. I’ve placed contenders in specific groupings that speak to their history and chances.

Last year’s nominees:
CHRISTIAN CLEMENSON as JERRY ESPENSON, BOSTON LEGAL (1 nomination)
Clemenson is no longer eligible because his show ended last year.

MICHAEL EMERSON as BENJAMIN LINUS, LOST (3 nominations/1 win)
Emerson finally won last year after being nominated every year that he appeared on the show, and something tells me he’s going to keep up that trend and get another nod this year. He hasn’t really had the material, though he did have a good premiere episode and a nice flash-sideways showcase. His main competition: probable returning nominee and past winner Terry O’Quinn, as well as the many other men of “Lost” who have never been nominated, namely Josh Holloway.

WILLIAM HURT as DANIEL PURCELL, DAMAGES (1 nomination)
Hurt did not appear on “Damages” this season.

AARON PAUL as JESSE PINKMAN, BREAKING BAD (1 nomination)
Last year, Paul broke through with a nomination as his show also earned a Best Drama Series mention. This season has been even better, and while Paul hasn’t necessarily had a specific episode quite as strong as last year’s “Peekaboo,” his work throughout the entire season has been consistently terrific. Given the fact that there are three spots opening up in this category, Paul should be safe to repeat.

WILLIAM SHATNER as DENNY CRANE, BOSTON LEGAL (5 nominations/1 win)
After five years of taking a spot from actual dramatic performers, Denny Crane is no longer on the air.

JOHN SLATTERY as ROGER STERLING, MAD MEN (2 nominations)
I’m inclined to think that Slattery will earn another nomination despite the fact that he’s not the most visible supporting actor on his show. Vincent Kartheiser and even Jared Harris have had more to do on screen, though Slattery continues to do well in the few moments in which he does steal the show. It seems clear that he and Jon Hamm are the designated “Mad Men” representatives, and I think he’ll be back again this year, regardless of the material he had, though there may not be room for him.

Past nominees, back for the final round?

TERRY O’QUINN as JOHN LOCKE/THE MAN IN BLACK, LOST (2 nominations/1 win)
O’Quinn was up for this award for the show’s first year, snubbed for the second, won the third, not even in the top ten for the fourth, and not submitted for the fifth. Now, as the central player in season six, O’Quinn will almost certainly be back. The chance to play the mysterious villain as well as a flash-sideways version of John Locke should enable O’Quinn to return to the race and maybe even to win again.

NAVEEN ANDREWS as SAYID JARRAH, LOST (1 nomination)
Last nominated for the debut season of ABC’s recently-wrapped cult series (you may have heard of it), Andrews wasn’t too prominent this season. Still, he had a strong flash-sideways episode and is likely to be remembered positively for the way he went out. If voters decide they love the show and shower it with a “West Wing” in 2001-like sweep, he would definitely be part of that. Apart from that scenario, however, I don’t think he’ll make it.

Is this the year?

JORGE GARCIA as HURLEY, JOSH HOLLOWAY as SAWYER, and NESTOR CARBONELL as RICHARD, LOST
Aside from the three aforementioned “Lost” stars, these are the most likely to break through and earn a nomination for the show’s final year (Henry Ian Cusick, who plays Desmond, is submitted as a guest actor). Garcia is the show’s comedic heart, while Holloway is the vehicle for all its sarcasm. Carbonell, who before this season couldn’t really have been considered a regular, had one episode that people seem to have loved which could earn him an Emmy nod for sentimental reasons. The fact that Holloway didn’t make it in last year diminishes his chances, and I think that Garcia is beloved but not considered Emmy-worthy. Carbonell has the best shot, followed by Holloway, but they’ll likely not make the cut unless voters truly loved the last season of “Lost.”

VINCENT KARTHEISER as PETE CAMPBELL, MAD MEN
After two seasons of being sleazy and smooth-talking prospective clients, Kartheiser was just as terrific in the show’s third season. It’s possible that he’ll earn recognition akin to the supporting thespians of “30 Rock” last year, since “Mad Men” is pretty much locked to clinch its third consecutive trophy for Best Drama Series and is certainly still popular. I just don’t see why this would be the year, and I imagine Kartheiser has another few years of tragic snubbing ahead of him.

New contenders:
ANDRE BRAUGHER as OWEN, MEN OF A CERTAIN AGE
I have a hard time believing that he has a shot, but Braugher has a pretty good track record with the Emmys, earning two nods and one win for “Homicide: Life on the Street” and even managing a nomination for a one-season medical drama, “Gideon’s Crossing.” The TNT drama has been well-received and Braugher has earned the best mentions of any of the stars, but I still think it’s a longshot at best, especially considering the network’s spotty reputation for Emmy nods (pretty much just Kyra Sedgwick).

JOSH CHARLES as WILL GARDNER, THE GOOD WIFE
It’s tough to predict how well a freshman show like this will fare at the Emmys. It earned a SAG nod for Best Ensemble but not a Golden Globe nod for Best Drama Series, and Julianna Marguiles continues to be the only star feted. Many fans of “Sports Night” feel that the actor was unfairly ignored for that show, so that could certainly help him, though he has costar Chris Noth and a whole number of contenders to get through before he ever makes it to the top six, and I don’t think he’ll be able to do that.

JOHN GOODMAN as CREIGHTON BURNETTE, TREME
Goodman earned his tenth Emmy nomination and his first win three years ago for his guest spot on “Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip.” His work on “Treme” as an outspoken critic of the government and stern defender of New Orleans is of a much higher quality, so if voters liked that, they’ll love this. He’ll have to overcome the hurdle of people actually having seen his show, but that shouldn’t be too hard. This character is extremely memorable.

ANIL KAPOOR as PRESIDENT OMAR HASSAN, 24
Even though he wasn’t on the show for the last quarter of the season, Kapoor, fresh off the international fame he achieved with “Slumdog Millionaire,” was one of the strongest parts of an otherwise poor final season of the once-beloved real-time drama. With another president out of the way (Cherry Jones is not submitting herself), Kapoor may be the third head of state from the show nominated (after Jones and Gregory Itzin as Charles Logan). It’s not likely he’ll stand out from the rest of the pack, but it could happen, and it would certainly be cool if it did.

CRAIG T. NELSON as ZEEK BRAVERMAN, PARENTHOOD
Almost two decades, Nelson was up for three Emmys and won one for his work on the comedy series “Coach.” Now, he’s switching genres to NBC’s light-hearted drama as the patriarch of a tight-knit but troubled family. If Emmy voters look kindly on the show, Nelson definitely stands out among the supporting cast (Peter Krause and Lauren Graham are leads) and could certainly factor into the Emmy race.

CAMPBELL SCOTT as JOE TOBIN and MARTIN SHORT as LEONARD WINSTONE, DAMAGES
These two new players have contributed enormously to the success of this season, and both deserve commendation. For the first year of the show, two actors earned nods in this category, and last year it dropped to one. Things are looking good for these two with that history. Short is probably the likelier one, especially considering just how much he plays against type, whereas Scott’s subtler performance may go unnoticed.

The roundup::
With nineteen strong contenders, this category is very crowded. Emerson, O’Quinn, and Paul are the frontrunners for a nomination, with Short and Goodman close behind. For the last slot, I’d posit that Scott can make it in over Slattery, but I wouldn’t bet on that. There’s enormous possibility for upsets here, and this lineup could easily look very different than the one I’ve predicted. But, for now, here’s my best guess at what the lineup will be.

Current predictions:
MICHAEL EMERSON, LOST
JOHN GOODMAN, TREME
TERRY O’QUINN, LOST
AARON PAUL, BREAKING BAD
CAMPBELL SCOTT, DAMAGES
MARTIN SHORT, DAMAGES

Who could win? Tough call. I'd love to say Short, but I think it'll more likely be Goodman or O'Quinn (both just as deserving).

Next up: Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series