Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Actress in a Miniseries or TV Movie

The competition:
Amy Adams (Sharp Objects) plays Camille Preaker, a disturbed reporter, in the dark HBO miniseries. Her costar Patricia Clarkson is nominated, and her series contends for Best Miniseries or Television Film. She is also up for her supporting role in the film “Vice” this year. She has seven previous film nominations and two wins, for “Big Eyes” and “American Hustle.” She also contends for a SAG Award for this role.

Patricia Arquette (Escape at Dannemora) plays Tilly Mitchel, a duplicitous prison employee, in the HBO miniseries. Her series is nominated for Best Miniseries or Television Film. Arquette previously won a Globe in 2014 for “Boyhood” and was nominated three times for the TV show “Medium.” She also contends for a SAG Award for this role.

Connie Britton (Dirty John) plays Debra Newell, an interior designer who falls in love with the wrong man in the first season of the Bravo anthology series. She was nominated for a Globe in 2012 for her work on the TV show “Nashville.”

Laura Dern (The Tale) plays Jennifer Fox, a journalist recalling disturbing events from her childhood, in the HBO movie that premiered at Sundance. Dern has won four Globes for her TV work, the most recent of which was in the supporting race last year for “Big Little Lies.” She has two additional nominations and served as Miss Golden Globe back in 1981. She contended for an Emmy for this role earlier this year.

Regina King (Seven Seconds) plays Latrice Butler, a teacher mourning her son’s death, in the first season of the Netflix drama that didn’t end up getting renewed. King, who won an Emmy for this role earlier this year, was previously nominated for “American Crime” in 2015 and also contends this year for another Globe for Best Supporting Actress for the film “If Beale Street Could Talk.”

Additional notes: King won her third Emmy this summer, beating Dern, and the other three might contend next summer. Adams and King are both double nominees in the same two categories.
Who should win? I saw Dern’s work at Sundance and watched the first episode of the other four actresses’ series. I’d probably vote for Dern with Adams and Arquette as decent choices too, though of course I don’t feel qualified to say that given how little I’ve actually seen.
Who will win? Unless Arquette or King surprise, I think that Adams is the clear frontrunner here.