Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Lead Actress in a Limited Series or TV Movie

Nominees are listed in alphabetical order. Performers in this category don’t submit specific episodes, but I’ve watched the entirety of their shows to best assess their chances.

The nominees: Michaela Coel (I May Destroy You), Cynthia Erivo (Genius: Aretha), Elizabeth Olsen (WandaVision), Anya Taylor-Joy (The Queen’s Gambit), Kate Winslet (Mare of Easttown)

Erivo, Olsen, and Taylor-Joy earn their inaugural Emmy bids this year, along with Coel, who is also contending for writing, directing, and producing her show. Winslet, who is also up for producing her show, won this prize a decade ago for “Mildred Pierce” and was also nominated in 2006 for guest-starring on “(Extras.” This is a formidable competition where almost anyone could win, though Erivo would be a real surprise and Coel would be a considerable upset. Winslet is a veteran while the others are relative newcomers who have been building reputations over the past few years. If nominations totals are relevant, then Olsen might have the best shot, but I think this comes down to Taylor-Joy and Winslet, and I’m tempted to go with the former, who won the Golden Globe and the SAG before Winslet was in the mix, even if maybe that’s not the smartest idea.

Who should win: Coel, Olsen, or Taylor-Joy
Who will win: I’m going with Taylor-Joy.