Emmy Race: Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

The Emmy Award nominations are still a few weeks away, but this year looks to be even more competitive in all the major categories than last year when the switch was made from five to six nominees in the regular acting categories and series categories. At this point, I’d like to offer a rundown of the potential nominees, revisiting my predictions in early July. I’ve placed contenders in specific groupings that speak to their history and chances.

Last year’s nominees:

JON CRYER as ALAN HARPER, TWO AND A HALF MEN (4 nominations/1 win)
Cryer’s win last year came as a real surprise, especially after the show was dropped from the Comedy Series category, but I suppose it was about time that it won some non-technical Emmy, and Cryer was always its best shot. I suspect that Cryer will be one of those people who, now that he’s been rewarded, will be easier to leave off the list this time around. Still, I’m nervous about leaving Cryer out of my predictions because the show continues to be popular in the ratings, and Cryer’s performance hasn’t changed much since he was first nominated.

KEVIN DILLON as JOHNNY DRAMA, ENTOURAGE (3 nominations)
Dillon made it in three years ago for a strong season, and then shocked everyone by repeating not once but twice. Even more surprising was him making it in last year when costar Jeremy Piven got left off allegedly due to his questionable food poisoning. It’s hard to believe that Dillon is now a three-time nominee, and I have a feeling that there won’t be room for him with the influx of “Modern Family” candidates this year. You never know, though.

NEIL PATRICK HARRIS as BARNEY STINSON, HOW I MET YOUR MOTHER (3 nominations)
Many thought that Harris would win last year, especially as he was the ceremony’s host. Now, he’ll definitely be back for a fourth year even if his show doesn’t return to the Comedy Series category because he’s more popular than ever. Being in the running for a guest spot on an episode of “Glee” helmed by his “Dr. Horrible” director Joss Whedon doesn’t hurt either, and if he can defeat the new army of “Modern Family” guys, he may just clinch it this time.

JACK MCBRAYER as KENNETH PARCELL, 30 ROCK (1 nomination)
McBrayer made it in last year as the entire core cast of his show was ushered in as part of growing support for the three-time winner for Best Comedy Series. While he had more to do in the first season than he did in seasons two or three, he also had more to do in season three than in season four. I couldn’t imagine that he’d be back again, but the fact that he was only first nominated last year means he might stick around for a bit. I doubt it.

TRACY MORGAN as TRACY JORDAN, 30 ROCK (1 nomination)
Unlike his costar McBrayer, Morgan is probably going to earn another nomination. He’s always been the zaniest in a cast of zany characters, and this year, he only kept that up. His commitment to being crazy in a manageable way is unmatched, and I’m thinking specifically of a scene like his recounting the horrible things he saw in his childhood in the season’s penultimate episode. Morgan will likely be back.

RAINN WILSON as DWIGHT SCHRUTE, THE OFFICE (3 nominations)
Compared to past years, Dwight really hasn’t had much of a presence on this past season of the workplace comedy, save for his back-and-forth on his contract with Angela. In many ways, Wilson is probably a de facto nominee and will be back no matter what, though I’m sure many people would appreciate the chance to let his never-nominated costar John Krasinski finally earn some recognition.

Past nominees, back again?

JEREMY PIVEN as ARI GOLD, ENTOURAGE (4 nominations/3 wins)
After four consecutive nods and three consecutive wins in this category, Piven was shut out last year, potentially because of his departure from a Broadway show due to questionable claims of food poisoning. Piven was once again the best part of the most recent season of the less and less interesting show, and he also had some fun going to war with former assistant Lloyd. I presume he’ll be back, and that his absence last year was only a suspension, not an expulsion.

Could this be the year?

JOHN KRASINSKI as JIM HALPERT, THE OFFICE
This is now season six and Krasinski has earned not even one nomination. This year, he had great two-part episodes like “Niagara” and “The Delivery,” but it’s not like he hasn’t had stellar episodes to submit in the past either. When there were top tens, he made it in, but somehow he’s never made it far enough. I’m worried about the massive contingent of “Modern Family” men this year shutting him out once again, though he could always join (or take the place of) his costar Rainn Wilson.

ASIZ ANSARI as TOM HAVERFORD and NICK OFFERMAN as RON SWANSON, PARKS AND RECREATION
The word on this show has been much more positive than it was last year (even though I personally loved season one too), and many suspect that star Amy Poehler will break into the Best Actress category. Consider the showy (Ansari) and the subtle (Offerman) supporting stars of the show, who help make it extraordinarily funny each episode. I think Offerman probably has a better shot for his stoic, deadpan nature, but I’m not too confident about either one’s chances given how long it took Emmy voters to recognize the supporting actors of “The Office.”

New contenders:

TY BURRELL as PHIL DUNPHY, JESSE TYLER FERGUSON as MITCHELL PRITCHETT, ED O’NEILL as JAY PRITCHETT, RICO RODRIGUEZ as MANNY DELGADO, and ERIC STONESTREET as CAMERON TUCKER, MODERN FAMILY
The year’s best-reviewed new comedy boasts a whopping five contenders who all have a legitimate shot at an Emmy nomination. The most likely three are probably dumb dad Burrrell, over-the-top boyfriend Stonestreet, and eternally sarcastic patriarch O’Neill, who was never nominated for “Married…with Children,” and voters will likely want to reward him now. “The West Wing” earned four nominations in the drama category back in 2002, so this show could get just as many or even more. Also in the running are less excessive boyfriend Ferguson and extremely mature son Rodriguez.

CHRIS COLFER as KURT HUMMEL and CORY MONTEITH as FINN HUDSON, GLEE
This season’s musical sensation is least likely to have a nominee in this category out of all the categories, but it still has two decent shots. Colfer is a standout as gay student Kurt, who deals with his sexuality both at home and at school, and provides much of the comedy and heart of the show. And then there’s Monteith, who would only be here if “Glee” fever really swept the Emmys for his portrayal of impossibly dumb former jock Finn.

CHEVY CHASE as PIERCE HAWTHORNE and DANNY PUDI as ABED NADIR, COMMUNITY
NBC’s newest addition to its Thursday night comedy lineup boasts two very different contenders. One is Chase, whose elderly community college student earns a lot of laughs from viewers and could result in Chase’s first acting nod since the 70s, when he won for SNL. The other is newcomer Pudi, whose first major television role finds him spouting off pop culture references like it’s his job. I don’t think the show will be embraced by Emmy voters, but it could be.

The roundup:
Here we have an interesting situation: nineteen contenders from only nine shows. It’s hard to pick out which actors from those shows will make the cut and which won’t. Harris is definitely the only safe returning nominee, and in the least creative case, at least two slots have to be opened up for “Modern Family” members, which would probably be Burrell and Stonestreet (if only two). That said, O’Neill will probably join them, and I imagine that Morgan and Wilson will both be back, though this could be the year that John Krasinski finally lands his first nod.

Current predictions:
TY BURRELL, MODERN FAMILY
NEIL PATRICK HARRIS, HOW I MET YOUR MOTHER
TRACY MORGAN, 30 ROCK
ED O’NEILL, MODERN FAMILY
ERIC STONESTREET, MODERN FAMILY
RAINN WILSON, THE OFFICE

Who could win? NPH or one of the “Modern Family” guys. Currently, I’d bet on Burrell.

Next up: Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series