Emmy Race: Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

This is the second in a daily series of Emmy predictions, focusing on a specific category and outlining the most likely 10 or 15 contenders, with an analysis of their chances and the episodes chosen as submissions for consideration. Predictions will be revisited in July as the Emmy nomination announcement approaches.

Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Last year's nominees:
WILL ARNETT, ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT (show ended last season)
JEREMY PIVEN, ENTOURAGE (winner)
BRYAN CRANSTON, MALCOLM IN THE MIDDLE (show ended last season)
JON CRYER, TWO AND A HALF MEN
SEAN HAYES, WILL & GRACE (show ended last season)

This year's top contenders:
KEVIN DILLON AS DRAMA, ENTOURAGE
As Johnny Drama, famous actor Vincent Chase's older and less famous brother, Dillon gives a very true-to-life performance (his older brother, Matt, is far more well-known). The role is great and Dillon plays it well; it is all a matter of how much Emmy voters like the show since, with the exception of Jeremy Piven, the show has been largely ignored throughout its first two seasons. I have not seen the episode Dillon submitted ("The Resurrection") but I doubt it really matters; he is great in all the episodes.

JEREMY PIVEN AS ARI, ENTOURAGE (2 nominations/1 win)
Last year's winner delivers a constantly spectacular performance this season, even in a somewhat more diminished role. Piven's episode, "Manic Monday", has him showing a great range of emotion, which is unusual, even crying at one point. His episode submission makes him a lock for a nomination, if not the win.

NEIL PATRICK HARRIS AS BARNEY, HOW I MET YOUR MOTHER
Harris gives a hilarious performance in what I think is a pretty unfunny, highly overrated show. The show is not what I consider "Emmy-worthy", but I think Harris has the best opportunity out of anyone on the show. His recent coming-out does not hurt as far as the publicity he has gotten, which may help or hinder him.

JOHN KRASINSKI AS JIM, THE OFFICE
Krasinski is great and delivers the perfect deadpan performance as the fan-beloved Jim. His work has gone unnoticed the past two years, in my opinion because of competition from the supporting stars of "Arrested Devlopment", "Everybody Loves Raymond", "Malcolm in the Middle" and "Will & Grace", all of which were recently cancelled. He has a much better shot now, but unfortunately his episode submission is not fantastic. He pretends that he is a vampire in "Business School" but would have done better to submit one of the final two episodes of the season or the episode where he pretends to be Dwight at the beginning.

RAINN WILSON AS DWIGHT, THE OFFICE
Krasinski's biggest competition is of course internal. Rainn Wilson has the unbelievably hilarious role of Dwight, the overconfident, devoted, bizarre Dunder-Mifflin employee and frequent target of Jim's pranks. Wilson has also been shafted recently due to the wealth of supporting actors from other shows, but he should have a great shot this year, especially with his strong episode submission, "The Coup", where he tries to go over Michael's head to take charge.

DONALD FAISON AS TURK, SCRUBS
Faison's strongest asset is his undeniable chemistry with Zach Braff (J.D.) and the way that their scenes together work so well. None of the "Scrubs" cast has been honored in the past, with the exception of Braff, and Faison has a less showy role than McGinley. Nonetheless, his submission of the musical episode is a very smart move.

JOHN C. MCGINLEY AS DR. COX, SCRUBS
McGinley has been amazing the past six years on "Scrubs", but has never been recognized by Emmy voters. His work this year is up to par, as usual, and his submission this year is "My House", in which he acts like Dr. House of the popular FOX show. That should only help his chances, as it gives him an added display of his comedic range.

JON CRYER AS ALAN, TWO AND A HALF MEN (1 nomination)
Cryer has provided for the past few years a perfect serious complement to Charlie Sheen's goofy lead. Last year, he finally received a nomination and I see no reason why he should fall out now. I no longer watch the show, but I think he is in unless supporters of "Entourage" and "The Office" nudge him out.

TONY PLANA AS IGNACIO, UGLY BETTY
Again, I do not watch or like the show. Plana's name is the one I have heard mentioned most often, and he recently won a Satellite Award (a less known awards guild) for his performance on "Ugly Betty." It all depends on how much Emmy voters love the show, because when they love a show, they really love it (see: "Arrested Development", "Everybody Loves Raymond).

JUSTIN KIRK AS ANDY, WEEDS
It is hard to deny that Kirk is anything short of astounding as Andy, the comic brother of the show's main character. His midseason entrance last year is probably the reason for his snub, and his Golden Globe nomination this year is a good sign. The one thing is that Emmy voters seem not to really love "Weeds" but I think Kirk can overcome that.

My current predictions (a bit hopeful, I realize, but I would be thrilled with this list):
JEREMY PIVEN, ENTOURAGE
JOHN KRASINSKI, THE OFFICE
RAINN WILSON, THE OFFICE
JOHN C. MCGINLEY, SCRUBS
JUSTIN KIRK, WEEDS

Tomorrow: Best Guest Actress in a Comedy Series.