Emmy Predictions: Best Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Titles in parantheses are the episodes chosen as submissions for the Emmy awards in this category. I have watched all the episodes in this category in preparation for analysis of possible winners and their chances.

The nominees:

RICKY GERVAIS AS ANDY, EXTRAS (Sir Ian McKellen)
Former "Office" star Gervais has a great follow-up role on the now-cancelled "Extras", but I still think his style of humor and acting is a bit far out of Emmy's tastes (the multiple nominations and zero wins for the show last year seems also to indicate that). I think American audiences will respond better to his American "Office" boss counterpart. His episode submission is good but AWKWARD to an unbearable point.

TONY SHALHOUB AS MONK, MONK (Mr. Monk Gets a New Shrink)
Shalhoub has won this award three out of four times in the show's history. His performance is fantastic and pretty much standard - if they liked him one year, why should they not love him just as much the next? His episde choice is fine; any of season five's installments would have served equally well.

STEVE CARRELL AS MICHAEL, THE OFFICE (Business School)
It is the show's third year and still Carrell has yet to win an Emmy. The positive here is that he has a money scene in his episode (also discussing money as it happens), naming candy bars and using them to judge success, and I truly hope that the popularity of "The Office" will lead him to a victory.

ALEC BALDWIN AS JACK, 30 ROCK (Hiatus)
Baldwin was uproariously funny throughout the first season of "30 Rock", but I think that he royally screwed up by choosing his least funny episode, the season finale, and that could very well be his downfall. Baldwin is popular and has picked up a number of awards for this role so far, but I think his episode choice will really hurt him.

CHARLIE SHEEN AS CHARLIE, TWO AND A HALF MEN (Who's Vod Kanockers?)
Is Charlie Sheen's name actually among the list of actors nominated for an Emmy? He is just plain bad in his episode. He is certainly funny, but this is hardly a performance deserving of an award nomination of any kind. If Sheen's name is called, I will be shocked beyond belief. "Two and a Half Men" may score upsets elsewhere, but certainly not here.

Who should win (based on entire season): Baldwin
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Carrell
Who will win: Carrell

Next: Best Lead Actress in a Drama Series