Emmy Predictions: Best Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Titles in parantheses are the episodes chosen as submissions for the Emmy awards in this category. I have watched all the episodes in this category in preparation for analysis of possible winners and their chances.

The nominees:

SALLY FIELD AS NORA, BROTHERS & SISTERS (Mistakes Were Made, Part 2)
I know she is Sally Field and all, but she is actually pretty bad in her chosen episode. It is an Emmy kind of role, especially with the scenes where she gets upset about her son joining the army and having to go back, but she does not work with it very well at all. I can only hope that the less than lukewarm reception for this show at the Emmys will keep Field from undeservingly taking this trophy away from the other nominees who do much better work.

KYRA SEDGWICK AS BRENDA, THE CLOSER (Slippin')
I seem to be the only one who thinks that Sedgwick did not completely screw up with this episode submission. Sedgwick was just as great, if not better, in the show's second season, and "Slippin'" is a great example of her work and gives her some great scenes with Frances Sternhagen and Jon Tenney. There is no reason that Sedgwick should not win this award; it is merely a question of someone else getting more votes.

MARISKA HARGITAY AS OLIVIA, LAW & ORDER: SVU (Florida)
Last year's winner for her turn in the episode "911" dose a decent enough job in this year's pivotal episode, but she does not do anything for me. She is fine but I do not see how her performance is more challenging than some of the other actresses here. The material and style of the "Law & Order" format does not allow necessarily for as much acting per se, and perhaps that is why Hargitay is the only "L & O" cast member to be nominated in the past few years.

PATRICIA ARQUETTE AS ALLISON, MEDIUM (Be Kind, Rewind)
I know that several people have commented in the past that my attitude towards Arquette and her show (as well as "Boston Legal") is far too harsh and completely unfounded. I did watch this episode and wholeheartedly stand by the fact that Arquette is a terrible actress and does a dreadful job in this episode as well as the rest of the show's run. I can take comfort in the fact that she already won her award and will hopefully never again claim an award of any kind. Most predictors put her in dead last for the win in this category.

MINNIE DRIVER AS DAHLIA, THE RICHES (Pilot)
Driver did a truly amazing job this year on this show this past season. I would love to see her win, especially as the sole representative in any category for her show. I do not however support her episode submission. It took me until the second episode to decide that I liked her a lot. It was Eddie Izzard who drew me in right away, but perhaps that can help Driver to gain support. My real worry here is that Sedgwick and Driver will split the vote and someone like Field will claim this trophy.

EDIE FALCO AS CARMELA, THE SOPRANOS (The Second Coming)
Falco has already won three out of the five Emmys she has been nominated for, and it is hard to bet against her for the final season of the hit show. There are only two things really going against her, but I think the popularity of the show and it going it may overwhelm that. Falco missed out on a nomination last year, and also took a major backseat to the rest of the cast this season. Then again, I predicted that Allison Janney would beat her when she submitted the incomparably excellent "Whitecaps" a few years ago and that was clearly not a good idea. She is a force with which to be reckoned.

Who should win (based on entire season): Sedgwick
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Sedgwick
Who will win: I would not be surprised to hear the names of either Sedgwick, Driver, or Falco, but I am betting on Sedgwick.

Next: Best Lead Actor in a Drama Series