Emmy Predictions: Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Titles in parantheses are the episodes chosen as submissions for the Emmy awards in this category. I have watched all the episodes in this category in preparation for analysis of possible winners and their chances.

The nominees:

WILLIAM SHATNER AS DENNY, BOSTON LEGAL (Son of the Defender)
While I think that Shatner is heavily overrated and that this performance is a hundred times more a comedic one than a dramatic one, I have to admit that his submission is partially brilliant. An inane hostage situation is made clever by flashbacks to Denny's past as a lawyer working with his father which are actually clips from an old Shatner TV show which work pricelessly in this context. This two-time winner (for this role) could easily surprise, but I would hope not.

T.R. KNIGHT AS GEORGE, GREY'S ANATOMY (Six Days, Parts 1 & 2)
Two-parters are often an advantage for nominees, as is being in the public eye for something like, say, coming out publicly (see: Neil Patrick Harris). Truth is, Knight is actually pretty bad in his chosen episode, which has him facing his father's deteriorating condition. He is much weaker than the rest of the mostly female cast, and I would feel cheated if he won due to his recent tabloid status.

MASI OKA AS HIRO, HEROES (Five Years Gone)
Okay, so the deal here is that Oka was lovable and great as comic relief time-traveling Hiro on the show, but his submitted episode shows little of that joyous nature and instead has him doing double duty as a future and far more serious version of himself. Impressive range, sure, but not necessarily award-worthy. "Heroes" seems to be more popular than people might have expected, so anything is possible.

MICHAEL EMERSON AS BEN, LOST (The Man Behind the Curtain)
I felt that Emerson's work throughout the season was great, but that he was far better in all the other episodes. I suppose his performance was chilling in the episode which developed his backstory, but I was not as keen on him during that hour. He got nominated with a different episode where he is more in the background, but I feel like he is almost guaranteed to be eclipsed by his costar in this race.

TERRY O'QUINN AS LOCKE, LOST (The Man from Tallahassee)
O'Quinn portrays one of the most intriguing characters on "Lost", and while this episode is no "Walkabout" (his amazing episode from season one which he submitted back then), it is probably his strongest. The biggest problem with "Lost" this season, which will not affect it in this race, is the relative sparsity of its supporting cast members. O'Quinn appeared in few episodes, but he is strong in this hour and I think he has what it takes to win.

MICHAEL IMPERIOLI AS CHRISTOPHER, THE SOPRANOS (Walk Like a Man)
Imperioli has always been great on the show, though I think he won a year too late, and his performance, while still solid, has now blended in more with the backdrop and does not necessarily deserved to be recognized again. I did not see all the hoopla about his performance in "Walk Like a Man" despite a major downspiraling on his part, but he has done that before, so not too much is new. Perhaps I am underestimating the show's popularity, but I do not expect him to win.

Who should win (based on entire season): Oka
Who should win (based on individual episodes): O'Quinn
Who will win: Hard to say, but I am going with O'Quinn.

Next: Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series