Emmy Predictions: Best Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Titles in parantheses are the episodes chosen as submissions for the Emmy awards in this category. I have watched all the episodes in this category in preparation for analysis of possible winners and their chances.

The nominees:

JAMES SPADER AS ALAN, BOSTON LEGAL (Angel of Death)
Spader won this award twice in a row, first for his role on "The Practice" and then reprising it on this show, but missed out on a nomination last year. There was a massive amount of backlash against the show after it was nominated this year, but then again the show did well with nominations, so who really knows? Spader has won already, his time has passed. Additionally, many people think this episode cashes in on a tragedy. If Spader wins, it will be a real shame.

HUGH LAURIE AS HOUSE, HOUSE (Half-Wit)
I have never been a fan of Laurie's on this show, but I know that I am overwhelmingly in the minority. Nonetheless, his performance in this episode is nothing special. A lot of the plot has to do with character-specific stuff that only fans of the show really could get. I am not sure if that will hurt him or help him. He still has not won an Emmy though, which is a pretty big deal given how popular he is.

DENIS LEARY AS TOMMY, RESCUE ME (Retards)
Leary is immensely unlikable, but I think that is why his performance is so great. FX nominees have never done very well with the exception of Michael Chiklis for the first season of "The Shield", and Leary, in his second year and facing this competition, should have a virtually nonexistent shot at this award. I do not think he will be back next year, but that is completely irrelevant to this race. If there are a lot of "Rescue Me" fans out there, and now that Kiefer has finally won his award, Leary could have a fighting chance.

JAMES GANDOLFINI AS TONY, THE SOPRANOS (The Second Coming)
I do not have to say much about Gandolfini. He has won three awards out of five nominations, but like Falco, he was snubbed last year. Unlike Falco, however, he was absolutely front-and-center in the show's final season and did a more than respectable job. I think he could have done better with "Soprano Home Movies", but "The Second Coming" is a respectable choice. Gandolfini is a powerhouse this year and I am not sure he can be stopped.

KIEFER SUTHERLAND AS JACK, 24 (5:00am-6:00am)
This was by far the least popular season of the once-great "24", and Sutherland is pretty much the only representative for the show. He won last year so that whole factor is done with, and I, along with pretty much every predictor I have read, think Sutherland has next to no shot. His episode submission is his best work this season, so that is the only thing going for him.

Who should win (based on entire season): Leary
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Gandolfini or Leary
Who will win: Gandolfini

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