Emmy Race: Best Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

The Emmy Award nominations are still a few weeks away, but this year looks to be even more competitive in all the major categories than last year when the switch was made from five to six nominees in the regular acting categories and series categories. At this point, I’d like to offer a rundown of the potential nominees, revisiting my predictions in early July. I’ve placed contenders in specific groupings that speak to their history and chances.

Last year’s nominees:
ALEC BALDWIN as JACK DONAGHY, 30 ROCK (3 nominations/2 wins)
If it’s at all possible, Baldwin has only gotten hotter since he took home his last Emmy. A starring role in the holiday comedy “It’s Complicated” and a recent gig hosting SNL means that Baldwin is just as on top – and probably unbeatable – as ever. The actor now has three Golden Globes and four SAG Awards on his mantle, and he’ll definitely earn a nomination and the chance to compete for a third consecutive Emmy to add to that trophy case.

STEVE CARELL as MICHAEL SCOTT, THE OFFICE (4 nominations)
In the midst of rumors that he’ll be exiting the show after this coming season, Carell is still one of the strongest parts of what most agree to be an ailing show, and his nomination is just as locked up as Baldwin’s. Unfortunately for Carell, there’s nothing to suggest that he’ll finally win this year, but he’s going to grab a nomination for sure.

JEMAINE CLEMENT as JEMAINE, FLIGHT OF THE CONCHORDS (1 nomination)
The inimitable Clement is, tragically, no longer eligible because his show has been off the air for well over a year.

JIM PARSONS as SHELDON COOPER, THE BIG BANG THEORY (1 nomination)
Parsons hit it big last year when he made it in to this category as a representative for his show, which has many devoted fans. While some suggest that Parsons’ inclusion was a fluke, I think it’s a sign of staying power, especially as the still-beloved show has essentially become the new critical flagship of CBS Mondays with the reported creative demise of “How I Met Your Mother” (recently) and “Two and a Half Men” (a long time ago). I’d say count Parsons in.

TONY SHALHOUB as ADRIAN MONK, MONK (7 nominations, 3 wins)
His last case has finally been closed, but that doesn’t mean Shalhoub is going to sit this one out. In fact, he even has a much better chance of winning now that his show is off the air and it’s the last chance for voters to honor what fellow Emmy blogger Myles correctly points out is a familiar character whose final episodes were so purposefully nostalgic. Shalhoub could disappear due to voter fatigue, but it’s not likely.

CHARLIE SHEEN as CHARLIE HARPER, TWO AND A HALF MEN (4 nominations)
Nauseating as it is to contemplate, Sheen has actually been praised for his “acting” for the past four years. Fortunately, his reign of terribleness should come to an end this year. With reports of his exit from the show followed up by reports that he may be headed to jail for his domestic issues, it seems almost certain that been forced to hear “Charlie Sheen” and “Best Actor” in the same sentence will soon be a thing of the past.

Eligible again – welcome back?

LARRY DAVID as LARRY DAVID, CURB YOUR ENTHUSIASM (3 nominations)
One of the most inconsiderate television characters in recent history has only been intermittently eligible as his show airs sporadically, and three out of the last four times, he’s made the cut. Back in 2008, for the show’s sixth season, he didn’t, however, while the series did get nominated, and hosting a Seinfeld reunion may not be enough to garner both him and the show a friendly invitation back to the Emmy lineup.

First-time contenders:

MATTHEW MORRISON as WILL SHUSTER, GLEE
The core faculty member on FOX’s musical sensation got a Golden Globe nod for his performance, and his Emmy chances raise a question rarely relevant to the race: should musical actors be judged on the same level as comedians? This category so yes, so the often acting-challenged but musically strong Morrison could just break into the race on a wave of hype and excitement over this musical sensation.

JOEL MCHALE as JEFF, COMMUNITY
The newest player in NBC’s Thursday night lineup may just go the road of the other two male leads from that television block. The host of “The Soup” leads NBC’s popular new comedy about community college, and if voters choose to embrace the show, he has a good chance. Keep in mind, however, that even an NBC series like “The Office” wasn’t recognized until its second season (sure, it only had six episodes, but still), so praise may not be in the immediate future for this hit either.

THOMAS JANE as RAY, HUNG
The deadpan star of HBO’s summer comedy about a gym teacher who doubles as a male gigolo earned a surprising Golden Globe nomination back in December. The show had already wrapped up its first season well before then, so some voters clearly liked him enough to remember him once awards season came around. Will that still be true, and can Jane defeat the stars of much more popular series? Probably not.

Third time’s the charm?

DAVID DUCHOVNY as HANK MOODY, CALIFORNICATION
After missing out on a nomination for the Showtime dramedy’s first season, Duchovny didn’t make the cut last year either. It would seem all hope is lost for the playboy writer, although the loss of both Clement and Sheen could leave room for the two-time Best Drama Actor nominee to give it a shot in a new genre.

ZACHARY LEVI as CHUCK BARTOWSKI, CHUCK
Fans love it, but Emmy voters don’t seem to care. A major campaign involving Subway saved the show and enabled it to get a third season, so maybe Emmy voters will finally take notice. Even if the show has declined in the opinion of some (not this critic), Levi’s work has been spot-on and hilarious, and he handles both the comedy and the drama extraordinarily well. If only that could get him an Emmy nomination.

The roundup::
Consider Baldwin, Carell, Parsons, and Shalhoub safe, and then add in two more actors. Who could they be? I really don’t know. I’m inclined to think David and Morrison based solely on the popularity of their shows, especially compared to the much smaller audiences for all of the other contenders. It still could be Jane though, and wouldn’t it be something if Levi made it in?

Current predictions:
ALEC BALDWIN, 30 ROCK
STEVE CARELL, THE OFFICE
LARRY DAVID, CURB YOUR ENTHUSIASM
MATTHEW MORRISON, GLEE
JIM PARSONS, THE BIG BANG THEORY
TONY SHALHOUB, MONK

Who could win? Probably Baldwin again, though it may be Shalhoub or Parsons.

Next up: Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series