Wednesday, June 16, 2010

Emmy Race: Best Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

The Emmy Award nominations are still a few weeks away, but this year looks to be even more competitive in all the major categories than last year when the switch was made from five to six nominees in the regular acting categories and series categories. At this point, I’d like to offer a rundown of the potential nominees, revisiting my predictions in early July. I’ve placed contenders in specific groupings that speak to their history and chances.

Last year’s nominees:
ALEC BALDWIN as JACK DONAGHY, 30 ROCK (3 nominations/2 wins)
If it’s at all possible, Baldwin has only gotten hotter since he took home his last Emmy. A starring role in the holiday comedy “It’s Complicated” and a recent gig hosting SNL means that Baldwin is just as on top – and probably unbeatable – as ever. The actor now has three Golden Globes and four SAG Awards on his mantle, and he’ll definitely earn a nomination and the chance to compete for a third consecutive Emmy to add to that trophy case.

STEVE CARELL as MICHAEL SCOTT, THE OFFICE (4 nominations)
In the midst of rumors that he’ll be exiting the show after this coming season, Carell is still one of the strongest parts of what most agree to be an ailing show, and his nomination is just as locked up as Baldwin’s. Unfortunately for Carell, there’s nothing to suggest that he’ll finally win this year, but he’s going to grab a nomination for sure.

JEMAINE CLEMENT as JEMAINE, FLIGHT OF THE CONCHORDS (1 nomination)
The inimitable Clement is, tragically, no longer eligible because his show has been off the air for well over a year.

JIM PARSONS as SHELDON COOPER, THE BIG BANG THEORY (1 nomination)
Parsons hit it big last year when he made it in to this category as a representative for his show, which has many devoted fans. While some suggest that Parsons’ inclusion was a fluke, I think it’s a sign of staying power, especially as the still-beloved show has essentially become the new critical flagship of CBS Mondays with the reported creative demise of “How I Met Your Mother” (recently) and “Two and a Half Men” (a long time ago). I’d say count Parsons in.

TONY SHALHOUB as ADRIAN MONK, MONK (7 nominations, 3 wins)
His last case has finally been closed, but that doesn’t mean Shalhoub is going to sit this one out. In fact, he even has a much better chance of winning now that his show is off the air and it’s the last chance for voters to honor what fellow Emmy blogger Myles correctly points out is a familiar character whose final episodes were so purposefully nostalgic. Shalhoub could disappear due to voter fatigue, but it’s not likely.

CHARLIE SHEEN as CHARLIE HARPER, TWO AND A HALF MEN (4 nominations)
Nauseating as it is to contemplate, Sheen has actually been praised for his “acting” for the past four years. Fortunately, his reign of terribleness should come to an end this year. With reports of his exit from the show followed up by reports that he may be headed to jail for his domestic issues, it seems almost certain that been forced to hear “Charlie Sheen” and “Best Actor” in the same sentence will soon be a thing of the past.

Eligible again – welcome back?

LARRY DAVID as LARRY DAVID, CURB YOUR ENTHUSIASM (3 nominations)
One of the most inconsiderate television characters in recent history has only been intermittently eligible as his show airs sporadically, and three out of the last four times, he’s made the cut. Back in 2008, for the show’s sixth season, he didn’t, however, while the series did get nominated, and hosting a Seinfeld reunion may not be enough to garner both him and the show a friendly invitation back to the Emmy lineup.

First-time contenders:

MATTHEW MORRISON as WILL SHUSTER, GLEE
The core faculty member on FOX’s musical sensation got a Golden Globe nod for his performance, and his Emmy chances raise a question rarely relevant to the race: should musical actors be judged on the same level as comedians? This category so yes, so the often acting-challenged but musically strong Morrison could just break into the race on a wave of hype and excitement over this musical sensation.

JOEL MCHALE as JEFF, COMMUNITY
The newest player in NBC’s Thursday night lineup may just go the road of the other two male leads from that television block. The host of “The Soup” leads NBC’s popular new comedy about community college, and if voters choose to embrace the show, he has a good chance. Keep in mind, however, that even an NBC series like “The Office” wasn’t recognized until its second season (sure, it only had six episodes, but still), so praise may not be in the immediate future for this hit either.

THOMAS JANE as RAY, HUNG
The deadpan star of HBO’s summer comedy about a gym teacher who doubles as a male gigolo earned a surprising Golden Globe nomination back in December. The show had already wrapped up its first season well before then, so some voters clearly liked him enough to remember him once awards season came around. Will that still be true, and can Jane defeat the stars of much more popular series? Probably not.

Third time’s the charm?

DAVID DUCHOVNY as HANK MOODY, CALIFORNICATION
After missing out on a nomination for the Showtime dramedy’s first season, Duchovny didn’t make the cut last year either. It would seem all hope is lost for the playboy writer, although the loss of both Clement and Sheen could leave room for the two-time Best Drama Actor nominee to give it a shot in a new genre.

ZACHARY LEVI as CHUCK BARTOWSKI, CHUCK
Fans love it, but Emmy voters don’t seem to care. A major campaign involving Subway saved the show and enabled it to get a third season, so maybe Emmy voters will finally take notice. Even if the show has declined in the opinion of some (not this critic), Levi’s work has been spot-on and hilarious, and he handles both the comedy and the drama extraordinarily well. If only that could get him an Emmy nomination.

The roundup::
Consider Baldwin, Carell, Parsons, and Shalhoub safe, and then add in two more actors. Who could they be? I really don’t know. I’m inclined to think David and Morrison based solely on the popularity of their shows, especially compared to the much smaller audiences for all of the other contenders. It still could be Jane though, and wouldn’t it be something if Levi made it in?

Current predictions:
ALEC BALDWIN, 30 ROCK
STEVE CARELL, THE OFFICE
LARRY DAVID, CURB YOUR ENTHUSIASM
MATTHEW MORRISON, GLEE
JIM PARSONS, THE BIG BANG THEORY
TONY SHALHOUB, MONK


Who could win? Probably Baldwin again, though it may be Shalhoub or Parsons.

Next up: Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

4 comments:

Richter Scale said...

Joel McHale is one of the presenters of the Emmy nominations this year, which I think may bode well for him. It did for Jim Parsons and Chandra Wilson last year, and if you want better news, his presenting partner is Sofia Vergara (let's see if she gets nominated). As for Jim Parsons, I know you don't like The Big Bang Theory, but I really think he deserves to win. He's amazing as Sheldon, and he continues to surprise us with a character that could easily be one-note. And, between Baldwin and Carrell, I would rather it be Carrell because Baldwin wasn't as good as he's been in the last three years (he's still really good, but he already won, other people should).

Also, Abe, have you considered the possibility of anyone from Modern Family submitting lead. If someone does, I think he should be considered. My guess would be Ed O'Neill, since he's the most known actorof that show, and the family patriarch, so they could put him lead, or maybe Ty Burrell. I think someone from that show should submit lead, to avoid votes being split in supporting.

I actually think Matthew Morrison is a pretty decent actor and he impressed me a few times. He's not that funny, and he is a better singer than actor, but he's got some acting chops.

Movies with Abe said...

I didn't consider that McHale is one of the presenters, and most often that does lead to a nomination, though the famous example is Eric McCormack who didn't get nominated the year after he won. For the record, I prefer "The Big Bang Theory" to "Community" in a big way. I recognize that Parsons is very talented, and I'm fine with him getting nominated. Honestly, I'd be okay with McHale too, I guess. I just hate the show. I don't think Morrison necessarily deserves it, I just wish it could go to David Duchovny, or James Roday, or Zachary Levi.

Regarding "Modern Family," Gold Derby has reported that the entire cast is supporting. O'Neill does make sense as a lead, but I don't know about Burrell. I think they'll all end up in supporting.

And yes, Vergara being a presenter does bode very well for her.

Jorge Rodrigues said...

I have HUGE doubts about this category since:

1) it is one of the weakest and
2) apart from Carell, Baldwin and (probably) Monk, nobody has his ass safe.

So:

1. I feel inclined to say the same thing for Jim Parsons as I said for Simon Baker. On-going public popularity, show with excellent critics and rave about his performance: I say he is in, too.

2. My quintessential doubt: what to make of David Duchovny? I'm counting him out again this year. I'm also thinking the same way about Kevin Connolly from Entourage.

3. That leaves us with three newbies, Morrison, Jane and McHale, and two veterans, Sheen and David. And two spots to fill.

And although I'd be inclined to say McHale because of his Emmy nominees' presentation (it's been 4 years since the presenters were not nominated) I'm saying Morrison. And between Sheen and David, I'll say Larry David. The scandals over Sheen's personal life will probably sent him out of their ballots (same with Piven and Heigl last year).


3. Just a left-of-the-field choice: and what if JAY HARRINGTON gets nominated? :D I'd be thrilled!


I hope to see Thomas Jane in the race next year, along with MATTHEW PERRY (!) and Joel McHale at some point.

And you're right, Modern Family submitted the entire cast as supporting: you can see the Emmy ballots here: http://www.emmys.tv/sites/emmys.tv/files/performers.pdf

Movies with Abe said...

Even though he's hardly the best part of the gone-too-soon show, it would be cool to see Jay Harrington nominated. That's a fun idea.