Emmy Race: Best Lead Actor in a Drama Series

The Emmy Award nominations are still a few weeks away, but this year looks to be even more competitive in all the major categories than last year when the switch was made from five to six nominees in the regular acting categories and series categories. At this point, I’d like to offer a rundown of the potential nominees, revisiting my predictions in early July. I’ve placed contenders in specific groupings that speak to their history and chances.

Last year’s nominees:

SIMON BAKER as PATRICK JANE, THE MENTALIST (1 nomination)
Baker was the surprise “viewer’s choice” inclusion last year, not really in the same league as his fellow nominated performers. My own personal feelings aside, Baker is the most vulnerable of this bunch because of the format of his show. While Hugh Laurie and Mariska Hargitay are exceptions, stars of procedurals often don’t last long because other actors with more dynamic, season-spanning arcs come along. I’m thinking mainly of another CBS star who earned only one nomination half a decade ago: Anthony LaPaglia of “Without a Trace.” Baker could stick it out longer, but he’s definitely not a sure thing.

GABRIEL BYRNE as PAUL, IN TREATMENT (2 nominations)
Ineligible. “In Treatment” will return to HBO in the fall, presumably, and I sure hope that Byrne will be back next year.

BRYAN CRANSTON as WALTER WHITE, BREAKING BAD (2 nominations/2 wins)
He’s won both times that he’s been nominated, and at this point, Cranston is set to take home another trophy. While it’s always possible that voters will forget about his show, like they did with “The Shield” after only two years, the Best Drama Series mention last year means that voters have in fact found this little-seen show, and they’re impressed. Season three has been even better than the previous two, and Cranston has been performing incredibly.

MICHAEL C. HALL as DEXTER MORGAN, DEXTER (2 nominations)
The biggest threat to Cranston is the man who took home both the Golden Globe and the SAG Award for his portrayal of America’s favorite serial killer. Hall’s announcement that he has been undergoing treatment for cancer didn’t cause pity wins (the timeline isn’t right, for one thing) – he was better than ever before in the fourth season of Showtime’s series, playing off of John Lithgow magnificently. He’s a lock for a nomination; the question is whether he can oust Cranston this time around.

JON HAMM as DON DRAPER, MAD MEN (2 nominations)
Like the two men listed above, Hamm has been a contender for two years now and he has somehow managed to improve in the third year of AMC’s trailblazing period drama. He had a terrific season as philandering, chain-smoking ad man Don Draper, and he has more than enough material to hold his own against Hall and Cranston. Count him in without a doubt, but not as likely to take home a trophy.

HUGH LAURIE as DR. GREGORY HOUSE, HOUSE (4 nominations)
The veteran nominee in this category shows no signs of going anywhere, given the continued popularity of his show. Even if viewers and voters don’t find the series as compelling as it used to be, they’re still addicted to the eternally irritable House. His disadvantage is that his show isn’t on its way up like the series on which most of his competition stars, but there isn’t a fierce enough pool of candidates in this category this year to force him out.

Past nominees, primed for a comeback?

KIEFER SUTHERLAND as JACK BAUER, 24 (6 nominations/1 win)
The clock ticked out forever on this once-great series this year, and voters may long to honor the inimitable federal agent one last time. This show won big in its first truly bad year, so there’s no reason he shouldn’t be back in the running now, especially considering the fact that voters can still appreciate the series, awarding Cherry Jones a Best Supporting Actress trophy last year. He’s not a sure thing, but he has a fighting chance.

DENIS LEARY as TOMMY GAVIN, RESCUE ME (2 nominations)
This is a true long shot considering the series is a distant memory in voters’ minds and FX has much more prominent, younger shows that they’re trying to push instead. The really astounding work done by Leary this past year was actually already counted in the 2008-2009 season among the first seven episodes of the show’s fifth season. Helping his entire family fall off the wagon may work wonders for Leary’s Emmy chances, but don’t count on it.

New shows, same old actors?

PETER KRAUSE as ADAM BRAVERMAN, PARENTHOOD
The three-time nominee for HBO’s classic “Six Feet Under” has found a new role as a vocal member of another dysfunctional family unit. A new role was a blessing for former costar Michael C. Hall – can it get Krause back on the list of nominees too? The series only had thirteen episodes, but for such a serialized show, it’s probably not a detractor. It’s hard to tell how the show will be received by Emmy voters, though I think it should fare well, and Krause is the likeliest of the cast to reap the rewards.

TIMOTHY OLYPHANT as RAYLAN GIVENS, JUSTIFIED
He didn’t earn accolades for his work on “Deadwood” or “Damages” among large ensembles, so now he has his own show and more of a platform on which to prove himself. While critical reception has been positive and strong, FX shows can go either way. This is a good year for Olyphant to break through, and it may just happen. His biggest hurdle: he’ll have to hope enough people have seen it.

WENDELL PIERCE & CLARKE PETERS as ANTOINE BATISTE & ALBERT LAMBREAUX, TREME
Both of these actors starred on the most significantly snubbed series in Emmy history, “The Wire,” and this new show is a good chance for voters to try and right the wrongs they’ve been accused of and honor these superb performers. The trouble is that neither really has enough screen time to truly be considered a lead, and neither stands out from the talented ensemble cast.

Could this be the year?

BILL PAXTON as BILL HENRICKSON, BIG LOVE
Paxton has three Golden Globe nominations for his work as a polygamist on HBO’s drama but no Emmy love. Last year, his show popped up on the Best Drama Series list for the first time, and then costar Chloe Sevigny beat Jane Lynch for the Golden Globe for Best Supporting Actress on Television. Paxton might be able to sneak into this category this year, but why now? It seems highly unlikely.

KYLE CHANDLER as ERIC TAYLOR, FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS
This show is slowly shaping up to look like “The Wire” in terms of its Emmy track record. After it failed to muster any major nominations for its first season, this show has consistently come close to making it but never really gotten there. Its quality is supposedly just as good as it’s ever been, but that probably won’t be enough to catapult Chandler to the head of the pack.

MATTHEW FOX as JACK SHEPARD, LOST
Most agree that Fox isn’t a particular good actor, but there’s no debating that he was the lead performer on the final season of ABC’s recently concluding series. Final season sentiment might help him score a nomination, but I’m not sure that feelings are mostly positive, so I don’t think that Fox, unlike the supporting actors, can take charge and land a nod for the first time this year.

The roundup::
There will be at least one new nominee, and the safe choice to fill that slot is Kiefer Sutherland. I’m not convinced of Baker’s returning chances, though I have been wrong before about people like Patricia Arquette, so I think there’s room for either Peter Krause or Timothy Olyphant. I’d like to say both, though I’m not so courageous at this juncture.

Current predictions:
BRYAN CRANSTON, BREAKING BAD
MICHAEL C. HALL, DEXTER
JON HAMM, MAD MEN
PETER KRAUSE, PARENTHOOD
HUGH LAURIE, HOUSE
KIEFER SUTHERLAND, 24

Who could win? See above. Probably Cranston, maybe Hall.

Next up: Best Lead Actress in a Drama Series