Emmy Race: Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Update: I have changed my mind on my predicted five. See changes below.

This is the sixth in a daily series of Emmy predictions, focusing on a specific category and outlining the most likely 10 or 15 contenders, with an analysis of their chances and the episodes chosen as submissions for consideration. Predictions will be revisited in July as the Emmy nomination announcement approaches.

Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Last year's nominees:
GREGORY ITZIN, 24 (character did not appear on show enough this year)
WILLIAM SHATNER, BOSTON LEGAL
OLIVER PLATT, HUFF (show ended last season)
MICHAEL IMPERIOLI, THE SOPRANOS
ALAN ALDA, THE WEST WING (winner - show ended last season)

An introductory note:
This category is probably the most interesting and the most likely chance that I will incorrectly predict all five nominees (though I would suspect that last year's eligible nominees, Shatner and Imperioli, are pretty much locked for another nod). Goldderby Forums list a whopping 183 names submitted for consideration in this race, and while the multiple submitted supporting actors on "The Black Donnellys", "Crossing Jordan", "Gilmore Girls", "Masters of Horror", and "What About Brian" have pretty much no chance of scoring a nomination, a number of shows, including "Brothers & Sisters", "The Closer", "CSI", "Deadwood", "Lost", "Rescue Me", "The Shield", "The Sopranos", and "Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip" all have at least five certifiable contenders. I have always found this category to be very fun, recognizing actors like Oliver Platt and Joe Pantoliano. This year "The Sopranos" stands the best chance of a "West Wing"-like sweep (4 out of 6 of the nominees in 2001 were stars of the show), but one can never know until the nominees are actually announced.

This year's top contenders (presumably):
WILLIAM SHATNER AS DENNY, BOSTON LEGAL (2 nominations/1 win)
Shatner mocks himself relentlessly on this absurd show and has already garnered two consecutive nominations (plus a Guest Actor win for introducing his character on "The Practice). I personally think he is great, but that there is much more difficult and challenging work being done by many of the people in this category. "Boston Legal" also has the bizarre tendency to continually change categories, going from comedy to drama and back again. Shatner's recognition has remained constant throughout all the craziness.

GERALD MCRANEY AS GEORGE HEARST, DEADWOOD
I have not seen McRaney on the show, but I have been hearing excellent buzz, and I have seen him perform very well in a separate supporting role not up for a nomination, as Johnston Green on "Jericho". "Deadwood" did receive several acting nominations in its first year, and a drama series nod its second. While its not having aired last season may be seen as a demerit, that never stopped "The Sopranos" and "Six Feet Under". Another problem for McRaney is internal competition, including former nominee Brad Dourif, amazing actor Brian Cox, and powerhouse "24" star Powers Boothe.

ZACH GILFORD AS MATT, FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS
Though I was put to sleep by the pilot, I do think that this critical hit will end up with a Best Drama Series nomination. I have heard the best things about Gilford out of the other actors (five from the show are eligible in this category). I do not think that acting nominations will be plentiful, with the exception of strong lead actress Connie Britton, but Gilford has a shot if "The Sopranos", "Lost", and "Studio 60" actors split all the votes.

T.R. KNIGHT AS GEORGE, GREY'S ANATOMY
This is the weakest category for the "Grey's Anatomy" cast (well, except for the dreadful Ellen Pompeo in lead actress), but fans seem to love Knight. With four actresses possibly nominated in the corresponding supporting category, Knight could find himself riding the wave of the show's popularity. On his side: his storyline and interactions with both Sara Ramirez and Katherine Heigl.

MASI OKA AS HIRO, HEROES
Oka is by far the most beloved of the popular "Heroes" cast (and the only one to receive a great deal of awards attention, including a Golden Globe nomination). His performance is much more three-dimensional than the rest of the cast (Hayden Panettiere is the only one who comes close) and he provides a great comic relief for the show. His episode submission, "Five Years Gone", also gives him the opportunity to portray his darker future self and show his serious acting skills as well. His nomination is really just dependent on whether "Heroes" becomes an Emmy show, or remains wildly popular but unrewarded (like "NCIS" and "Prison Break").

HENRY IAN CUSICK AS DESMOND, LOST (1 nomination as guest actor)
This guy really knows how to choose an episode. Not like it was a tough decision; this is clearly Desmond's episode. "Flashes Before Your Eyes" gives Desmond the chance to re-experience his actions before ending up on the island, but not the chance to change them. He does some of his finest work in this episode, and after his surprising nomination last year, I think he has a great shot, despite the fact that he appears in very few episodes this season (at least in the first half).

MICHAEL EMERSON AS BEN, LOST
Emerson gives a performance that defines creepy and serves as the perfect villain for the complex universe that is "Lost". His episode submission, "Every Man For Himself", is a good choice over the recent Ben-centric "The Man Behind the Curtain" because he is more intriguing when he reveals less about himself. I am doubtful about his chances, however, due to his failure to receive a guest acting nomination last year in favor of Cusick. Additionally, "Lost" suffered a major second-season Emmy backlash last year, shut out in nearly every category. If anyone can reserve that effect, it would be new additions Emerson or Elizabeth Mitchell.

DOMINIC MONAGHAN AS CHARLIE, LOST
I would not have enough thought of listing Monaghan here until I saw his excellent performance in the season finale, "Through the Looking Glass". I would certainly nominate Monoghan if I based my choices on individual episodes. Unfortunately, Monaghan has currently submitted "Flashes Before Your Eyes", the episode in which Desmond first starts predicting his death. He has the least screentime out of all his male cast members, except for in the final two episodes. Even submitting the episode with his own flashbacks, "Greatest Hits", would be a wiser choice thtan "Flashes Before Your Eyes".

TERRY O'QUINN AS LOCKE, LOST (1 nomination)
O'Quinn's character has taken a whole new direction, aligning himself with the Others and seeing his father again. He was nominated for his portrayal of Locke in the first season, and after taking somewhat of a backseat in the second season, he comes back this season with limited but powerful appearances. The main problem - Goldderby does not list O'Quinn as submitted for consideration. He is the only one really missing, and he still has three days to submit an episode, which will no doubt be "The Man From Tallahassee", the episode with the revealing flashback about how he ended up in his wheelchair.

WALTON GOGGINS AS SHANE, THE SHIELD
After five seasons portraying the hotheaded Shane, Goggins really takes a front-row seat in this season. His relationship with Vic takes on a whole new life, and their scenes together are astounding. His episode submission ("Haunts", in which he confesses to his wife) is spot-on. Emmy voters embraced CCH Pounder late in the show, so perhaps this will be his chance.

DOMINIC CHIANESE AS JUNIOR, THE SOPRANOS (2 nominations)
After relatively scarce appearances in the past two seasons, Junior takes center stage in his submitted episode, "Remember When", realizing that his life in prison is different from his past life and that his condition is continually deteriorating. I am assuming that "The Sopranos" will get a massive amount of nominations this year strictly because it is the final season of the show, so that gives Chianese a leg up on the competition.

VINCENT CURATOLA AS JOHNNY SACK, THE SOPRANOS
Curatola has a great role as disgraced former New York boss Johnny Sack, and his character's deteriorating condition gives him the chance to show much emotional range. The problem is, doesn't that description sound just like Chianese's? And Curatola really only appears in one episode this season, leading me to think he should have been submitted in the guest actor category.

MICHAEL IMPERIOLI AS CHRISTOPHER, THE SOPRANOS (4 nominations/1 win)
Imperioli has been nominated for the past four seasons of the show, and even managed a nod when both James Gandolfini and Edie Falco were snubbed. I think he was more deserving for the earlier seasons of the show, but Emmy voters seem to disagree with me. From what I have seen of the show this season, Imperioli is pretty locked for a nomination, possibly even a win if "Sopranos" nostalgia goes his way. His episode submission, "Walk Like A Man", portrays very well his descent into depression.

TONY SIRICO AS PAULIE, THE SOPRANOS
Sirico has been fantastic as part comic relief part crazed killer throughout the show's run. Like the other characters, he is getting the chance to have a leading role in at least one episode this season. Sirico's episode (along with Chianese and Curatola) is "Remember When", and he shares scenes very well with James Gandolfini. That episode in particular makes clear the fact that he really has been at the heart of everything from the beginning. Generally, though, he has a smaller and less noticeable role than the other cast members.

FRANK VINCENT AS PHIL LEOTARDO, THE SOPRANOS
As Phil Leotardo, the vengeful acting New York boss, Vincent channels a great rage and determination in his performance. He does not have a large enough role to merit a notice in any other year, but the fact that this is the final season of "The Sopranos" means that all the actors may have a better shot at a nomination. He has yet to select an episode, so I think his chances are not excellent.

Current predictions:
GERALD MCRANEY, DEADWOOD
HENRY IAN CUSICK, LOST
MICHAEL EMERSON, LOST
WALTON GOGGINS, THE SHIELD
MICHAEL IMPERIOLI, THE SOPRANOS

(I still do not feel right about having only one "Sopranos" star on this list, but this category always rewards actors regardless of series recognition, like Victor Garber on "Alias", so that is where Goggins come into play. I also think voters do like "Lost" and the "Deadwood" one is just for fun. I expect to be very wrong with this category).

Tomorrow: Best Guest Actress in a Drama Series.