Emmy Race: Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

This is the fifth in a daily series of Emmy predictions, focusing on a specific category and outlining the most likely 10 or 15 contenders, with an analysis of their chances and the episodes chosen as submissions for consideration. Predictions will be revisited in July as the Emmy nomination announcement approaches.

Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

Last year's nominees:
JEAN SMART, 24 (character did not appear on show enough this year)
CANDICE BERGEN, BOSTON LEGAL
SANDRA OH, GREY'S ANATOMY
CHANDRA WILSON, GREY'S ANATOMY
BLYTHE DANNER, HUFF (winner - show ended last season)

This year's top contenders:
CANDICE BERGEN AS SHIRLEY, BOSTON LEGAL (1 nomination)
The frequent nominee gives an absolutely dreadful performance on the alternately comedy-drama series. She was a nominee last year, and people somehow seem to love the show.

ANNABETH GISH AS EILEEN, BROTHERHOOD
Gish is great in a role designed for an Emmy nomination, complete with drug addiciton and marital unhappiness. It all depends on how big a buzz the show creates.

JULIE BENZ AS RITA, DEXTER
Benz has a very good role as the girlfriend not completely certain about what her bizarre boyfriend Dexter is up to. She recently won a Satellite award for her performance, beating out Jean Smart, Laurie Metcalf, and Elizabeth Perkins, showing that at least some people greatly respect her performance.

JENNIFER CARPENTER AS DEBRA, DEXTER
Carpenter gives a terrific performance as Debra, the determined sister of the title character trying both to help her brother and advance her career. Her episode submission, "Truth Be Told" gives her the best chance to shine.

KATHERINE HEIGL AS IZZIE, GREY'S ANATOMY
Heigl is on the cusp of a nomination, receiving a Golden Globe nod and the lead role in the sure-to-be-a-hit summer comedy, "Knocked Up". I do not watch the show regularly, so I cannot say if this season is her best.

SANDRA OH AS CRISTINA, GREY'S ANATOMY (2 nominations)
A nominee now for both of the show's seasons, Oh stands the best chance of getting a third nod. Not much more to say, though I think she did have a good plotline with Burke this year.

KATE WALSH AS ADDISON, GREY'S ANATOMY
Well, they are giving her a spin-off, so someone likes her. I think she will pale in comparison to the other three "Grey's Anatomy" stars.

CHANDRA WILSON AS BAILEY, GREY'S ANATOMY (1 nomination)
She gave a popular performance last year and garnered an Emmy nomination and a Screen Actors' Guild win. People only seem to like "Grey's Anatomy" more this year.

HAYDEN PANETTIERE AS CLAIRE, HEROES
It is hard to predict how well "Heroes" will do with Emmy voters, but Panettiere certainly has the best shot over the other two actresses submitted in this category, Tawny Cypress (Simone) and Ali Larter (Nikki/Jessica/don't get me started). Her episode submission also shows off some of her best work.

ELIZABETH MITCHELL AS JULIET, LOST
She gives an awesome performance as the duplicitous and creepy Juliet, and her episode submission, "One of Us", is spot-on and all but guarantees her a nomination.

CALLIE THORNE AS SHEILA, RESCUE ME
Maybe this is just wishful thinking, but I have only seen the first half of the third season of "Rescue Me" and I already think she deserves a win. Denis Leary got a nomination last year, so who knows?

CCH POUNDER AS CLAUDETTE, THE SHIELD (1 nomination)
Pounder is consistently excellent as Claudette, now the captain of the Barn. In her submitted episode, "Baptism by Fire", she has one killer scene where she screams at Forest Whitaker, certainly no small feat. "The Shield" may also sweep the nominations this year, which would be great.

AIDA TURTURRO AS JANICE, THE SOPRANOS (1 nomination)
Turturro has been nominated before, and though she gets sidelined for most of the first half of the episodes eligible this year, she is amazing in the season premiere, "Sopranos Home Movies", which she submitted. Her interactions with James Gandolfini, Steven Schirripa, and Edie Falco are excellent.

SARAH PAULSON AS HARRIET, STUDIO 60 ON THE SUNSET STRIP
Paulson plays what could have become a timeless character, engaged in an on-again, off-again relationship with Matthew Perry's Matt. Emmy voters went crazy for cancelled shows last year ("Commander-in-Chief", "The Comeback"), and "Studio 60" does have the added cache of Aaron Sorkin.

AMANDA PEET AS JORDAN, STUDIO 60 ON THE SUNSET STRIP
Peet has the showier role, but her chemistry with Bradley Whitford does not really compare to that between Paulson and Perry. I think she deserves a nomination (though I consider her a lead), but I think Paulson has a much better shot.

Current predictions:
KATHERINE HEIGL, GREY'S ANATOMY
SANDRA OH, GREY'S ANATOMY
ELIZABETH MITCHELL, LOST
AIDA TURTURRO, THE SOPRANOS
SARAH PAULSON, STUDIO 60 ON THE SUNSET STRIP

Tomorrow: Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series.