Emmy Race: Best Drama Series

This is the thirteenth in a daily series of Emmy predictions, focusing on a specific category and outlining the most likely 10 or 15 contenders, with an analysis of their chances and the episodes chosen as submissions for consideration. Predictions will be revisited in July as the Emmy nomination announcement approaches.

Best Drama Series

Last year's nominees:
GREY'S ANATOMY
HOUSE
THE SOPRANOS
24 (winner)
THE WEST WING (show ended last season)

Introductory note: This is probably my favorite category to predict, just because it is so unpredictable and strange. I am often disappointed with the results ("House" over the final season of "Six Feet Under"?), but it is always interesting to see what makes it what I consider to be the top category. This is also the category that gave us "Joan of Arcadia" in addition to recognizing "Star Trek: The Next Generation" in its final year. I think the only sure things this year are "Grey's Anatomy" and "The Sopranos", but we will see. I have left off "Boston Legal" and "The Tudors" because I do not think they will make the cut.

This year's top contenders:
THE CLOSER
This fun crime drama was excellent last year, and I am in the process of making my way through the second season, which thus far has been great. The SAG nomination for the cast last year was a good sign, but Mariska Hargitay's victory over "The Closer" star Kyra Sedgwick was not. I just finished the submitted episode, "Slippin'", which is good, but the best blend of comedic charm the show has to offer is "To Protect and to Serve". I think the more relaxed style of the show may be overshadowed by powerful and heavy dramas.

DEADWOOD (1 nomination)
It feels like ages ago, but "Deadwood" did in fact get a nomination for its previous season, as well as an impressive showing for its first season with two acting nominations and a directing win. Fans of the show were very disappointed with its cancellation, so it may have a large number of supporters. "Six Feet Under" and "The Sopranos" always sprung back from seasons taken off, so provided "Deadwood" is fresh enough, it could be back.

FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS
Critics love this NBC show about a high school football team, and its recent renewal shows that some executives do as well. I personally stopped watching this show after the pilot, which is the submitted episode. It bored me and came off as corny, but for fans who stuck through the whole season, it could be a contender.

GREY'S ANATOMY (1 nomination)
I stupidly predicted that this show would not be nominated last year. I have come to accept that a large portion of the population does love this show, and that it is pretty much locked for a nomination barring a major upset. No word on episode submission yet.

HEROES
This is an uber-popular hit with critics and viewers, but will that translate to Emmy love? I am hesitant to predict "Heroes" in this category, but I sort of felt the same way about "Grey's Anatomy" last year. I do think "Heroes" may be overshadowed by fellow NBC show with greater Emmy potential, "Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip". The so-so pilot is the submitted episode.

HOUSE (1 nomination)
This show's nomination last year annoyed me as it is a clear, overrated procedural whose place should have gone to better procedural "The Closer" or the brilliant and incomparable final season of "Six Feet Under". Hugh Laurie, however, did miss out on a nomination last year, so who knows what will happen? I think "House" will fall off the list in favor of better shows.

JERICHO
This is purely wishful thinking on my part, I suspect. How amazing would it be if a one-season show that was stellar got recognized as one of the best series of the year? It would sure throw CBS for a loop. I presume the submission will be the pilot or the finale, both of which were amazing. I will be ecstatic if this happens, but I do not think I am courageous enough to predict it.

LOST (1 nomination/1 win)
I tell you, I was beyond shocked when this show was snubbed last year. The fact that a show can win this prize one year and not even be up for it the next is both peculiar and hopeful, in that at least some people can appreciate a good show's decline. "Lost" did not quite bounce back this year, but it was better. The submission, "The Man from Tallahassee", is very Lost-centric, and I think the finale, "Through the Looking Glass" would have been a better choice. Neither are great for casual "Lost" viewers though, so I think "Lost" is out for now.

RESCUE ME
No FX show has been able to claim this prize yet, but I think "Rescue Me" may have the best shot. The first two seasons were unbelievably amazing, and season three should be arriving from Blockbuster Online as soon as tomorrow. The few episodes of season three I have seen lead me to think it is just as good. Submitted episode is "Hell".

THE RICHES
Again, no FX show has been nominated here. But critics seem to love "The Riches", and in its early episodes, I think it wholeheartedly deserved a nod. The submitted episode is the pilot, which is the strongest episode with the broadest appeal.

ROME
This short-lived but well-reviewed show concluded its run this year with its second season. It could experience a "Deadwood"-like second season nod, but its first season was not nearly as well-liked as that of "Deadwood". The series finale was wisely submitted, as I am sure it was very good, but I just do not think "Rome" will go the distance.

THE SHIELD
This could be the comeback story of the decade: a show heaped with prizes in its first season, followed by an awards decline and occasional nominees like Glenn Close and CCH Pounder, returning in its sixth season in the Best Drama Series category? The omission of the spectacular Forest Whitaker last year seems to indicate that "The Shield" is not on Emmy's radar, but this season things may have changed. Walton Goggins has turned in a great performance, and buzz is high for previously nominated stars Michael Chiklis and CCH Pounder. I would be overjoyed by this nomination, and luckily for me, the best episode (not including tonight's finale, which looks to be amazing), "Chasing Ghosts" is the submission.

THE SOPRANOS (6 nominations/1 win)
Now that the final episodes are eligible for consideration, there is no stopping this show. The submitted episode, "Soprano Home Movies", is by far the strongest of the episodes the aired before the original cutoff, and should drive the show to a certain nomination. Once nominated, the submitted episode will likely be changed to the series finale, leaving barely any hope for another show to win ("Grey's Anatomy" is the only real competition).

STUDIO 60 ON THE SUNSET STRIP
This Aaron Sorkin dramedy with an all-star cast was not supposed to flop. Critics loved the pilot, and generally greeted the show with a lukewarm reception. This is the last chance for the show to be called at least a mediocre success. I really am not sure whether it will make the cut, but I would be excited if it did get nominated, though again I would prefer "Jericho". Watch out for this show though.

24 (5 nominations/1 win)
So far, "24" has been nominated every year that it has been on. This year it was more popular but critically hated. I fear "24" may still be in the game, despite a dreadful season. Submitted episode is the premiere, which is of course the best episode of the season, before the show plummeted.

This year's top contenders:
DEADWOOD
FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS
GREY'S ANATOMY
THE SOPRANOS
STUDIO 60 ON THE SUNSET STRIP

Tomorrow: A look at the writing and directing races.