Emmy Race: Best Lead Actor in a Drama Series

This is the twelfth in a daily series of Emmy predictions, focusing on a specific category and outlining the most likely 10 or 15 contenders, with an analysis of their chances and the episodes chosen as submissions for consideration. Predictions will be revisited in July as the Emmy nomination announcement approaches.

Best Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Important update: Upon rereading this post, I realized that I had left off Patrick Dempsey from the list of contenders. He had been in my notes but I had forgotten to write about him. He does not make my top five, but he is up there with upset potential.

Last year's nominees:
CHRISTOPHER MELONI, LAW & ORDER: SVU
DENISE LEARY, RESCUE ME
PETER KRAUSE, SIX FEET UNDER (show ended last season)
KIEFER SUTHERLAND, 24 (winner)
MARTIN SHEEN, THE WEST WING (show ended last season)

About this category: While Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series is the most crowded category, this is the most competitive. Last year, expected favorites like James Gandolfini and Hugh Laurie, and past winners Michael Chiklis and James Spader were left off the ballots simply because there were so many great performances. This category does leave itself open to surprises (Meloni??), and while I feel a bit strange not putting Oscar nominee James Woods ("Shark") on this list and a bit depressed about omitting the two stars of "Brotherhood", Jason Isaacs and Jason Clarke, I just remember that in this category, you can be really amazing and still not get recognized.

This year's top contenders:
JAMES SPADER AS ALAN, BOSTON LEGAL (1 nomination/1 win)
Spader won this award two years running, first for his portrayal of Alan Shore on the long-running ABC hit "The Practice", and then in its remarkably different spinoff. I have not been hearing much about "Boston Legal" recently, but it is not a good idea to count the excellent Spader out.

IAN MCSHANE AS SWEARENGEN, DEADWOOD (1 nomination)
McShane received a nod for the series' second season for his fierce performance on the foulmouthed and now defunct HBO show. "Deadwood" faces series competition from similar show "Rome" and overbearing HBO magnet "The Sopranos", and the show may fade into oblivion after receiving a Best Drama Series nomination last time it was eligible.

MICHAEL C. HALL AS DEXTER, DEXTER
Hall received a nomination in this category five years ago for the first season of "Six Feet Under" and should make an easy return this year with his critically-loved show. His submission, "Born Free" gives him some great material and should help him along to the nomination, and hopefully a win.

KYLE CHANDLER AS ERIC, FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS
A surprise guest acting nomination for his spot on "Grey's Anatomy" last year certainly helps Chandler, who has found a great role on the new NBC hit. I think that Emmy voters will love "Friday Night Lights", and as much as Chandler is essentially the lead of the show, I see him as the one being left out, falling vulnerable to the less subtle and more powerful performances in this category.

PATRICK DEMPSEY AS MCDREAMY, GREY'S ANATOMY
I am not sure how hard this part really is to play, but Dempsey does a decent enough job, and if "Grey's Anatomy" popularity continues to rise, he could get a nomination. This category is far too crowded for the likes of him, I think. "Grey's Anatomy" is far more centered on the women, and I think T.R. Knight suffers the same disadvantages in the supporting category.

HUGH LAURIE AS HOUSE, HOUSE (1 nomination)
Every time Laurie picks up another award (2 Golden Globe wins, 1 SAG), I sigh to myself, thinking "when will they get over him?" but then I remember that he has yet to win an Emmy. Ugh. My only hope for this highly overrated performance is that he was mysteriously left off the list last year when his show received a Best Drama Series mention. Sadly, I think he will have an easy return to the list.

CHRISTOPHER MELONI AS STABLER, LAW & ORDER: SVU (1 nomination)
Meloni's shocking inclusion last year screams "one hit wonder" to me, but then again, costar Mariska Hargitay's first time being nominated seemed like a fluke too. I cannot imagine that Meloni will displace both Laurie and Gandolfini two years in a row, and I think he will have a hard time standing up to newcomers Eddie Izzard and Michael C. Hall. He was not that excited about his nomination last year, and I understand, because truthfully, his performance is just not that exciting.

MATTHEW FOX AS JACK, LOST
While I cannot imagine anyone else playing Jack, Fox really just is not that great an actor. He also has the misfortune of being the lead of what is undeniably an ensemble cast. I think he would have had better success with the finale, "Through the Looking Glass", which is a showier performance. In my opinion, Evangeline Lilly has a much better shot in a far less crowded category, and Fox will only come into play if Emmy voters really embrace "Lost" after snubbing it so badly last year.

DENIS LEARY AS TOMMY, RESCUE ME (1 nomination)
Leary is unbelievably perfect as Tommy, the rogue and obnoxious firefighter in his entertaining series. From the few episodes of the season, he wholeheartedly deserves the nomination. But I do fear that he may suffer the same fate as fellow FX star Michael Chiklis (see below), and he was not even embraced until the show's second season.

EDDIE IZZARD AS WAYNE, THE RICHES
Words cannot describe how amazing Izzard is in this show. I can only hope that Emmy voters will notice and recognize his performance on this somewhat offbeat show. He wisely submitted the pilot, and his performance in that episode blew me away.

MICHAEL CHIKLIS AS VIC, THE SHIELD (2 nominations/1 win)
Chiklis has never ceased to deliver an astounding and excellent performance throughout the show's run the past six years. He was originally loved by Emmy voters, receiving nods for the first two seasons of the show, then falling off the map. I think that the great storyline and heavy buzz can bring "The Shield" back to the Emmys this year, and Chiklis' submission of "Chasing Ghosts" is perfect as it showcases his best work with costar Walton Goggins (Shane).

JAMES GANDOLFINI AS TONY, THE SOPRANOS (5 nominations/3 wins)
I highly doubt that Gandolfini could be snubbed for the final season of what most people call the greatest drama series ever. Though he was left off the list last year, even Martin Sheen, whose role on the final season of "The West Wing" was a guest-starring bit at best, and Peter Krause, whose "Six Feet Under" missed out on a Best Drama Series nod its final year, returned to the lineup for their respective shows' swan songs. He changed his submission from the gambling-centered "Chasing It" to "The Second Coming" (which I have yet to see), but I hardly think it matters.

MATTHEW PERRY AS MATT, STUDIO 60 ON THE SUNSET STRIP
Yeah, I really do not expect this to happen. But hey, he did receive a nod for "Friends" and two guest nominations for the Sorkin-driven "The West Wing". I cannot decide how this show will fare at the Emmys, but I do think Perry has the greatest shot out of the two male leads, simply due to a better and more engaging storyline. I will be very surprised to hear Perry's name called, however.

BRADLEY WHITFORD AS DANNY, STUDIO 60 ON THE SUNSET STRIP
Theoretically speaking, Whitford has the leg up on Perry as far as Emmy history is concerned: He received three consecutive nominations for "The West Wing" and even picked up a trophy for the show's third year. But ditto what I said about Perry, and multiply it times two because Perry is the showier of the two.

KIEFER SUTHERLAND AS JACK, 24 (5 nominations/1 win)
Sutherland finally picked up the trophy last year for his performance as CTU Agent Jack Bauer. The show skydived in critical reviews this year, and I think Sutherland will also suffer the consequences of the creative downfall. He submitted the season premiere, which is pretty standard stuff, as opposed to the finale, which is pretty moving stuff as far as his performance is concerned. I said that Gandolfini would never be snubbed, and now I saw that Sutherland will, but what I do know?

Current predictions (wrong to be sure):
MICHAEL C. HALL, DEXTER
HUGH LAURIE, HOUSE
EDDIE IZZARD, THE RICHES
DENIS LEARY, RESCUE ME
JAMES GANDOLFINI, THE SOPRANOS
(I do not feel right leaving Chiklis off the list, so he is my very close runner up/alternate)

Tomorrow: Best Comedy Series.