Emmy Race: Best Lead Actress in a Drama Series

This is the eleventh in a daily series of Emmy predictions, focusing on a specific category and outlining the most likely 10 or 15 contenders, with an analysis of their chances and the episodes chosen as submissions for consideration. Predictions will be revisited in July as the Emmy nomination announcement approaches.

Best Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Last year's nominees:
KYRA SEDGWICK, THE CLOSER
GEENA DAVIS, COMMANDER-IN-CHIEF (show ended last season)
MARISKA HARGITAY, LAW & ORDER: SVU (winner)
FRANCES CONROY, SIX FEET UNDER (show ended last season)
ALLISON JANNEY, THE WEST WING (show ended last season)

This year's top contenders:
MARY MCDONNELL AS PRESIDENT ROSLIN, BATTLESTAR GALACTICA
I cannot believe I am listing McDonnell as a serious contender because I am a strong believer that no matter how strong her or the show's fan base, she will not get a nomination. I personally did not make it all the way through the "Battlestar Galactica" miniseries and thus am not really famiilar with McDonnell's performance. But "Battlestar Galactica" diehard fans love her, and in some crazy, unexpected event, she could make it all the way and make history for the Sci-fi network.

SALLY FIELD AS NORA, BROTHERS & SISTERS
It is completely unknown how well this show will do at the Emmys, and I am one of those who thinks it will be completely shut out. Field has garnered a number of Emmy nominations throughout her career, plus two Oscar wins, so she has the best shot out of the entire cast.

CALLISTA FLOCKHART AS KITTY, BROTHERS & SISTERS
See above for opening explanation. As for as Flockhart specifically, there are twice as many people who hate her for every person who loves her. I simply do not think there is room for her in this category.

KYRA SEDGWICK AS BRENDA, THE CLOSER (1 nomination)
Sedgwick is fantastic as Deputy Chief Brenda Leigh Johnson in this stellar crime drama. I was surprised she did not win last year, but her recent Golden Globe win and great buzz on the show assures her a second nod.

COURTENEY COX AS LUCY, DIRT
I am skeptical listing Cox here because her show did not receive great reviews and in the ten-season run of "Friends", she was the only cast member never to receive an Emmy nomination. Emmy voters do often go crazy for FX though ("The Shield", "Rescue Me"), and Lisa Kudrow received a nomination last year for her own "comeback" (which did not get renewed for a second season, while "Dirt" did).

CONNIE BRITTON AS TAMI, FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS
I was impressed with Britton during her six-episode arc at the start of the fifth season of "24", and though I did not watch "Friday Night Lights" this season, she has received amazing reviews for her performance as the wife of the coach. I have read that her episode submission, "I Think We Should Have Sex", is spot-on. The problem: is the really a lead?

LAUREN GRAHAM AS LORELAI, GILMORE GIRLS
In my opinion, Graham is the star who has come closest out of anyone on a WB/CW show to an Emmy nomination. She has received a Golden Globe nod and two SAG nominations during the show's run, all in the drama category, which is good, since "Gilmore Girls" is often seen as a comedy. I do not think she will make it, but this season was the show's swan song, and the CW may fare better with Emmy voters than WB or UPN ever did.

ELLEN POMPEO AS MEREDITH, GREY'S ANATOMY
It gives me confidence that a huge majority of diehard "Grey's Anatomy" fans hate Pompeo and her obnoxious Meredith character, since I wholeheartedly agree with the sentiment (though I am not a "Grey's Anatomy" fan either). Her recent Golden Globe nod is puzzling at best, and it would be wrong were she to get a nomination over the other, far more talented actresses in this category.

MARISKA HARGITAY AS OLIVIA, LAW & ORDER: SVU (3 nominations/1 win)
Hargitay's win last year is great news for her chances this year, though she is the most vulnerable because her performance does not necessarily depend upon a character storyline, as opposed to almost every other contender in this category (Patricia Arquette comes in second here). I think she has enough supporters that she should be safe here.

EVANGELINE LILLY AS KATE, LOST
This is certainly Lilly's year on "Lost", and her episode submission, "I Do" is a great Kate-centric episode which should help her chances. Emmy voters really turned the tables on "Lost" last year, but Lilly had a good amount of screen time this year and great interactions with the other characters.

PATRICIA ARQUETTE AS ALLISON, MEDIUM (1 nomination/1 win)
I was beyond shocked and horrified when Arquette was announced as a nominee, and then a winner (!) two years ago. I think she is deserved of a "Worst Actress" accolade and should be permanently banned from contention in this category. Alas, Emmy voters disagree with me and she might have a shot.

MINNIE DRIVER AS DAHLIA, THE RICHES
I am really pulling for this nomination because the series drew me in at the beginning, and despite some recent uneven episodes, Driver has remained great. I did not like her performance in the pilot that much, though she grew on me since then, but she has in fact submitted the pilot. This will be my wishful prediction in this category.

POLLY WALKER AS ATIA, ROME
This would be one of those "WTF" nominations that could easily happen, as it did with the Golden Globes two years ago. I list her solely because of that nomination, and though I see her as little more than a freakishly similar Melinda Clarke (Julie Cooper on "The O.C.") lookalike, Emmy voters could disagree if the show receives "Deadwood"-like support in its second and final season.

EDIE FALCO AS CARMELA, THE SOPRANOS (5 nominations/3 wins)
Falco's snub last year came as a huge shock, and it is unlikely that Emmy voters will leave her off the ballot for the show's final season. After all, even Martin Sheen and Allison Janney, barely visible in the final season of "The West Wing", returned last season after a year off. With the new eligibility rules for the final two episodes of "The Sopranos", she can switch her episode if she receives a nomination to the series finale and be almost locked for the win.

KRISTEN BELL AS VERONICA MARS
Ditto the "Gilmore Girls"/CW comments, but add in the fact that people love Bell, "Veronica Mars", and creater Joss Whedon. I doubt she can muster up the votes, especially after failing to ever get a Golden Globe nomination, but anything is possible here.

Current predictions:
KYRA SEDGWICK, THE CLOSER
CONNIE BRITTON, FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS
MARISKA HARGITAY, LAW & ORDER: SVU
MINNIE DRIVER, THE RICHES
EDIE FALCO, THE SOPRANOS

Tomorrow (or soon): Best Lead Actor in a Drama Series (the final acting category!)