Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Nominees are listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Anthony Anderson as Andre Johnson, Black-ish (Sex, Lies and Vasectomies)
Anderson is a first-time nominee for playing the patriarch of a successful suburban black family on ABC’s comedy. His submitted episode has him trying to cover up the fact that his wife may be pregnant because he never got the vasectomy he was supposed to years earlier. It’s a fun performance if an unserious one, and Anderson would probably win only as a result of a vote split between other actors.

Don Cheadle as Marty Kahn, House of Lies (It’s a Box Inside a Box)
This is Cheadle’s fourth consecutive nomination. Every year, he’s the only aspect of his show nominated, and fortunately, this year, his show actually got a lot better. His submission of the season finale is very strong, giving him the chance for a bit of comedy but also a bit of fury and passion. I don’t see him winning, but this is a good a submission as they come.

Louis C.K. as Louie, Louie (Bobby’s House)
This is C.K.’s fifth consecutive nomination in this category, and he also earned his third consecutive bid for hosting SNL this year. In his submitted episode, Louie tries to intervene when he sees a man being attacked by a woman and ends up getting the full brunt of her fury. It’s a good episode that shows Louie at his most well-meaning and miserable. There’s nothing new or hot about C.K. or his show right now, so I don’t think he’ll win last year since he hasn’t in the past.

Will Forte as Phil Miller, The Last Man on Earth (Alive in Tucson)
Forte is nominated this year for his new show about the last man on earth, who, in the series premiere, gets to tell his story and experience a fun unexpected things about the new world in which he lives. Forte is evidently popular, and it’s possible that he could win, but I’m not sure whether he’ll be able to pull off a win.

Matt LeBlanc as Matt LeBlanc, Episodes (Episode 405)
This is LeBlanc’s fourth consecutive nomination for playing a fictionalized version of himself on Showtime’s comedy. His episode submission is a great one in which he debates whether to accept the invitation of a dictator to get paid to come to a big party. I’d love to see LeBlanc win, but I think the probability of that is very far.

William H. Macy as Frank Gallagher, Shameless (A Night to Remem – Wait, What?)
This is the second consecutive nomination for Macy, whose show was switched from being classified as a drama to comedy last year. Macy is one of the best parts of his absurd show, and in his submitted episode, he has to contend with a drunken decision to actually do something good for others, trying to piece it all together. Macy has won other awards recently and could well get this one if it wasn’t for some of his competition.

Jeffrey Tambor as Maura Pfefferman (The Letting Go)
Tambor is an Emmy veteran, with six previous nominations for “Arrested Development” and “The Larry Sanders Show.” Now, he is nominated in the lead category for the first time after winning a Golden Globe earlier this year. He submitted the second episode of the series, a very good look at a nervous Maura still coming to terms with herself. He’s the frontrunner without question, though it’s always possible they’ll go for a more outright comedic performance, like Jim Parsons and Jon Cryer in the past, instead.

Who should win (based on entire season): Tambor
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Tambor, LeBlanc, or Cheadle
Who will win: I’m going with Tambor above all others.

Next up: Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series