Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Nominees are listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Andre Braugher as Captain Ray Holt, Brooklyn Nine-Nine (The Mole)
Braugher is an Emmy veteran, scoring his ninth nomination this year after wins for “Thief” in 2006 and “Homicide: Life on the Street” in 1998 and a nomination for this show last year. His episode was one of the Emmy installments I enjoyed watching most, and Braugher is legitimately hilarious as the police captain who wears specific pajamas and has a sleepover with Andy Samberg’s goofy detective. I’d be behind a Braugher win, though I don’t think he’ll manage it.

Tituss Burgess as Titus Andromedon, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Kimmy Goes to School)
Burgess is new to this race for his ridiculous portrayal of over-the-top struggling actor Titus, who often steals the show and has proven to be a fan favorite on Netflix’s Best Comedy Series nominee. His episode submission was a no-brainer, featuring him shooting a video about pinot noir, caviar, and plenty more. He’s probably the frontrunner unless voters opt for a more traditional choice.

Ty Burrell as Phil Dunphy, Modern Family (Crying Out Loud)
This is Burrell’s sixth nomination. He won last year and also in 2011. I’m not too impressed with Burrell’s submission this year, which finds him taking his family on a field trip when Alex wants to go on school on senior skip day. It’s not his best work, but Burrell continues to be the best part of his show, so voters may well be won over by him.

Adam Driver as Adam, Girls (Close-Up)
Driver has managed to hang on here despite his show and costar Lena Dunham being dropped from their respective categories, and now he’s the only representative of his show. His submitted episode this year actually shows him being a good guy for once, stepping up to the plate to fight for a relationship when his girlfriend casually tells him about an abortion. He won’t win, but it’s a good performance.

Tony Hale as Gary Walsh, Veep (East Wing)
Hale won this award two years ago and is now back with his third consecutive nomination. His submitted episode finds Gary spending like crazy on a reception and panicking because he’s constantly worried that he’s going to get caught. It’s a fun performance and might be just what Emmy voters are looking for in their winner.

Keegan Michael-Key as Various Characters, Key and Peele (Sex Detective)
This is the first nomination for the variety series star, who got in without costar Jordan Peele. Variety stars have never won this category, and I’m not sure that Michael-Key is showy enough to be able to pull off that feat. He has some strong moments in his submitted episode, but he’s often the straight man in the sketches, which isn’t likely to win over voters.

Who should win (based on entire season): Hale or Burrell
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Braugher
Who will win: I think it will be Burgess.

Next up: Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series