Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Lead Actress in a Drama Series

As I’ve done the past few years, I’m excited to present a detailed look at the Emmy race in each category with a spotlight on every sample episode submitted for consideration to voters. Click on episode titles to read reviews and offer your thoughts in the comments!

Claire Danes (Homeland) – Super Powers
Viola Davis (How to Get Away with Murder) – There’s My Baby
Taraji P. Henson (Empire) – Rise by Sin
Tatiana Maslany (Orphan Black) – The Antisocialism of Sex
Keri Russell (The Americans) – The Magic of David Copperfield V
Robin Wright (House of Cards) – Episode 49

This may well be the most competitive category. Danes has won twice before, and I think her show is well past its prime. Her submitted episode finds her returning back to her bipolar self after purposely putting her medication on hold, which I don’t consider to be a positive thing since the show tends to go off the rails these days when that happens. I think voters have grown tired of that too. I could not be more excited that Maslany is back for her second consecutive nomination, and if she won, I would be ecstatic, but that would be just too fitting. Her submitted episode is a knockout, showing three of her characters spiraling after dealing with an important friend’s death. Davis won last year and she has a meaty episode which involves a flashback, drunken yelling, and a traumatic life event, so she could easily repeat. Russell is nominated for the first time for the fourth season of her show, and she’s probably the likeliest element of her show to win. Her submitted episode is a strong showcase, and I don’t think anyone would argue if she went home with the Emmy. I was impressed to learn that Wright had submitted what I consider to be the best episode her show has ever produced, and it’s a formidable spotlight if ever there was one. This could be the year that she and Spacey both win even if her show isn’t held in as high regard anymore. Henson, however, is the likely spoiler. She won the Golden Globe and in her submitted episode spends the whole time walking around like she runs the show, which should make Emmy voters love her.

Who should win (based on entire season): Maslany
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Maslany or Wright
Who will win: It could be Wright, it could be Davis again, or it could be the one I think will win: Henson.