Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.
**I made a colossal error and neglected to post these predictions until now, and it just so happens that the Creative Emmy Awards, where the guest categories are handed out, happened on Saturday night. Oops. The predictions were written well in advance, so see for yourself who I thought would have won and then get the instant gratification of reading about the winner. I'll try to prevent such errors in the future.**
Elizabeth Banks as Avery Jessup, 30 Rock (The Return of Avery Jessup)
Banks earned her second consecutive Emmy nomination this year for her recurring role as Jack’s baby mama. After her imprisonment in North Korea kept her off the show for nearly the entire season, Avery Jessup returned for the final two episodes of the show, and she is spot on in her zany performance as the recently released captive in the season’s penultimate episode. If the show were still more popular, she might have a chance, but I doubt she’ll be able to take it home this year.
Kathy Bates as Charlie’s Ghost, Two and a Half Men (Why We Gave Up Women)
Bates, who is also nominated in the drama lead actress category, earns her second nomination in this race, her first since “3rd Rock from the Sun” in 1999 and her eleventh overall. She gets to play a particularly fun but silly role as Charlie’s ghost, making sexist comments and tormenting Jon Cryer’s Alan in two extended scenes. This would be a decent way to give Bates her first Emmy, but it’s not exactly deserved.
Margaret Cho as Kim Jong-Il (The Return of Avery Jessup)
Stand-up comedian Cho netted her first Emmy nomination for playing one of the NBC comedy’s most ridiculous characters, Kim Jong-Il. Her performance is definitely entertaining, and she gets to be the star of all the North Korean mockery that goes on in the season’s penultimate episode. Her nomination indicates that she has fans, but I don’t think it will lead to her winning/
Dot-Marie Jones as Coach Shannon Beiste, Glee (Choke)
This is the second consecutive nomination for what now ranks as the lone acting representative of the former Best Comedy Series nominee. Jones’ plotline is considerably more dramatic than the rest of her show’s content, as it’s revealed that she was the victim of domestic violence. It’s a compelling performance, but I don’t think it quite fits this category, which should prohibit her from winning.
Melissa McCarthy as Various Characters, Saturday Night Live (Host: Melissa McCarthy)
McCarthy was the surprise winner last year in the comedy lead actress category, and she’s back again with a nomination in that race and one here as well. Though her “Bridesmaids” buzz has worn off somewhat, her episode aired back in October when she was still extremely popular, and it shows in how involved and invested she is in each sketch. It’s a far better showcase for her than “Mike and Molly,” and it’s likely to win her the Emmy this year.
Maya Rudolph as Various Characters, Saturday Night Live (Host: Maya Rudolph)
Rudolph earned her first Emmy nomination for her return to the show on which she used to be a cast member. Rudolph is hardly alone in her episode, accompanied by Amy Poehler in one sketch and a clear throwback to the good old days. That should help her, though she’s much less showy than her “Bridesmaids” costar and fellow host and nominee McCarthy, and won’t be able to beat her unless voters think less is more.
Who should win (based on entire season): Banks
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Banks
Who will win: It’s likely to be McCarthy.
And the winner was...Kathy Bates. So I guess they felt like McCarthy had been rewarded last year, and instead chose to honor Bates, bestowing upon her her first Emmy. I doubt she'd win for "Harry's Law" also, since this makes a better career achievement trophy, but I'd watch out for her on Emmy night.
Next up: Best Directing for a Drama Series
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