Sunday, September 9, 2012

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series


Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Ty Burrell as Phil Dunphy, Modern Family (Lifetime Supply)
Burrell was last year’s winner in this category for his performance as foolish dad Phil. I didn’t think that last year’s submission was enough to net him a win, but this year he’s right on target as he frets about a call from his doctor and simultaneously runs out of his lifetime supply of razors. It’s a terrific choice, and he could easily repeat given how competently he handles his material.

Jesse Tyler Ferguson as Mitchell Pritchett, Modern Family (Leap Day)
Despite predictors having little faith in Ferguson’s chances, he’s now managed three consecutive nominations for playing the high-strung partner of Eric Stonestreet’s showy Cam. In his submitted episode, he scrambles to plan a better surprise for his beau after realizing that his “Wizard of Oz” theme may not be as well-received as he had thought. It’s a fun installment, but Ferguson never quite seems to take as much focus as his costars.

Max Greenfield as Schmidt, New Girl (Control)
The funniest part of FOX’s new comedy series is almost indisputably Schmidt, the trend-savvy, fashion-obsessed roommate whose obnoxious phrases have inspired his roommates to create a “Douche Jar” to stop him when he becomes too annoying. Greenfield does a terrific job on the show, and in his submitted episode, he can’t stand a mess and sleeps in dress pants, among other things. The fact that he got nominated means he may well win, especially voters have grown tired of too many “Modern Family” nominees.

Bill Hader as Various Characters, Saturday Night Live (Host: Katy Perry)
Hader, who won an Emmy as a producer of “South Park” in 2009, earns his first nomination for his seventh season as a cast member on NBC’s variety series. Hader’s episode choice is somewhat peculiar since he doesn’t appear for most of the installment, meaning that his scenes are relegated mainly to his popular Stefon character and a royal family skit. I really don’t think that’s anywhere near enough to merit enough votes to take home this award.

Ed O’Neill as Jay Pritchett, Modern Family (Baby on Board)
O’Neill, who earned his first-ever Emmy nomination last year after being the only adult cast member snubbed for the show’s first season, may be on track to be the third member of his cast to win this award this year thanks to an episode submission that shows him cheering up his adopted granddaughter when her fathers aren’t around. There’s nothing more endearing than seeing a stiff go soft.

Eric Stonestreet as Cameron Tucker, Modern Family (Treehouse)
Stonestreet won this award two years ago and lost to costar Burrell last year. After being identified as the mother in the relationship last year, here he tries hard to be perceived as straight in a determined attempt to pick up a woman to prove his manliness. It’s a superb submission, and he remains the showiest male actor on his series, so he could well win again if voters don’t feel compelled to honor someone new.

Who should win (based on entire season): Greenfield
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Burrell or Greenfield
Who will win: I think it may actually be Greenfield, but O’Neill may be the victor, if he can trump costars Burrell and Stonestreet.

Next up: Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

1 comment:

Unknown said...

Abe, as much as I love Max Greenfield and would be happy to see him win, I don't think there's any way this doesn't go to a Modern Family man. I think if they were really suffering from Modern Family fatigue, they would have dropped one of these four men from the nomination slate. But, all four are back. For that same reason, I think the Television Academy wants all four of them to be winners. If they didn't, I think they would have dropped at least two of them this year.

I also think it's going to be O'Neill (to continue with that trend of a different one winning this year) but I think we're underestimating Ferguson. I think the fact that he's been nominated all three years thus far says something and while he's fantastic in his submission, I think Ed O'Neill's submission helps Ferguson as well (since he has that breakdown at the gas station). One thing that I think is working for Modern Family is that none of the cast members ever submit the same episode, so they help each other by having the voters see a large sample of their work, and in the Comedy Series category they submit very few episodes that the actors themselves submitted, kind of tricking the voters into seeing most of the season. While other shows put most of their eggs into one or two episodes, Modern Family spreads it out, and I think that's one of the reasons why it has had the Emmy success it has so far. That's another reason why I think one of them will win here...