The Emmy Awards air tonight on ABC. For the first time, I'll be live-blogging the show, so tune in throughout the ceremony for updates and reactions! So far, I’ve predicted 1/4 correctly, choosing Jimmy Fallon (Saturday Night Live) but not Jeremy Davies (Justified), Martha Plimpton (The Good Wife), and Kathy Bates (Two and a Half Men). Last year I said that Kathy Bates was a threat to win because of Paul McCrane’s guest actor bid, but this year I think she’s a threat since she won a guest acting bid, and now contends for her show’s series finale. Julianna Margulies and Elisabeth Moss are much bigger threats to frontrunner Claire Danes, though. Otherwise, every race is extremely competitive, and I’m sure we’ll have more than a few surprises.
An important note about my predictions: I’ve established a track record for myself of writing very accurate analyses and then choosing the wrong winner. That means that Damian Lewis, Giancarlo Esposito, Maggie Smith, Jim Parsons, Zooey Deschanel, Ty Burrell, and Kathryn Joosten could all feasibly win, but I’m betting on different horses.
The most exciting and unusual thing about this particular year is that there are four legitimate contenders for Best Drama Series. Not only that, but my predictions suggest that those four shows will split all the drama awards, leaving every other show empty-handed. I’ve picked “Breaking Bad” to take series and actor, “Homeland” for actress and directing, “Mad Men” for supporting actor and supporting actress, and “Downton Abbey” for writing. They could all easily swap and one – likely “Downton Abbey” or “Mad Men” – could sweep. No matter what, there will be records this year, whether it’s Bryan Cranston’s fourth win (tying Dennis Franz) or “Mad Men” breaking the record with five consecutive series wins. I’m hoping for “Homeland” since I love it, but “Breaking Bad” is terrific too, and, honestly, so are all the nominated shows, which makes it easy to be happy no matter who or what wins. That’s not as true in the comedy races, but they’ll be enjoyable as well.
As I mentioned above, I'm excited to report that I'll be live-blogging the show for the first time, so stick around during the Emmys for reactions. Enjoy the show, and leave your thoughts in the comments! For detailed predictions in all applicable categories, click on the hyperlinked category name.
No guts, no glory (same as last year):
Kathy Bates (Harry’s Law)
DRAMA SERIES:
Breaking Bad
DRAMA LEAD ACTOR:
Bryan Cranston (Breaking Bad)
DRAMA LEAD ACTRESS:
Claire Danes (Homeland)
DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Jared Harris (Mad Men)
DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Christina Hendricks (Mad Men)
DRAMA DIRECTING:
Pilot (Homeland)
DRAMA WRITING:
Downton Abbey (Episode 7)
COMEDY SERIES:
Modern Family
COMEDY LEAD ACTOR:
Don Cheadle (House of Lies)
COMEDY LEAD ACTRESS:
Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep)
COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Ed O’Neill (Modern Family)
COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Julie Bowen (Modern Family)
COMEDY DIRECTING:
Palestinian Chicken (Curb Your Enthusiasm)
COMEDY WRITING:
Pilot (Girls)
MINISERIES or MADE FOR TV MOVIE:
American Horror Story
MOVIE/MINI LEAD ACTOR:
Benedict Cumberbatch (Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia)
MOVIE/MINI LEAD ACTRESS:
Julianne Moore (Game Change)
MOVIE/MINI SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Ed Harris (Game Change)
MOVIE/MINI SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Jessica Lange (American Horror Story)
MOVIE/MINI DIRECTING:
Game Change
MOVIE/MINI WRITING:
Game Change
VARIETY SERIES:
The Daily Show
VARIETY HOST:
Cat Deeley
REALITY/COMPETITION PROGRAM:
The Amazing Race
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