Emmy Race: Best Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

This is the tenth in a daily series of Emmy predictions, focusing on a specific category and outlining the most likely 10 or 15 contenders, with an analysis of their chances and the episodes chosen as submissions for consideration. Predictions will be revisited in July as the Emmy nomination announcement approaches.

Best Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Last year's nominees:
LARRY DAVID, CURB YOUR ENTHUSIASM (show did not air this season)
KEVIN JAMES, THE KING OF QUEENS
TONY SHALHOUB, MONK (winner)
STEVE CARRELL, THE OFFICE
CHARLIE SHEEN, TWO AND A HALF MEN

This year's top contenders:
KEVIN CONNOLLY AS ERIC, ENTOURAGE
Connolly certainly eclipses Adrian Grenier (Vince) as the "lead" of the essential five leads on "Entourage" with a juicier role and greater interaction with other cast members. His submission, "Strange Days", is the episode following his threesome trouble and gives him a great chance to play dramatically and comedically at the same time. "Entourage" generally has not been embraced too much by Emmy voters, but perhaps this year.

RICKY GERVAIS AS ANDY, EXTRAS
Gervais had a brief moment of awards love from the Golden Globes when the British version of "The Office" was eligible. He is really funny on "Extras" and if the six-episode season of the now-ended series can catch Emmy attention for the lead and not just the guest stars, Gervais could be in luck.

KEVIN JAMES AS DOUG, THE KING OF QUEENS (1 nomination)
After an utterly shocking nomination last year, his first awards attention besides the Teen Choice Awards, James remains in the running as this past season was the final year of "The King of Queens" and whoever liked him last year might like him just as much in the show's final season.

TONY SHALHOUB AS MONK, MONK (4 nominations/3 wins)
I used to be so mad every time Shalhoub kept winning this award, but after seeing a good deal of the episodes this season, I realize Shalhoub is truly excellent. I would love to see Baldwin or Carrell scoop up the trophy this year, Shalhoub certainly deserves a mention. I have not seen his submitted episode, "Mr. Monk Gets A New Shrink", but based on other episodes this season, he should be in, no question.

JASON LEE AS EARL, MY NAME IS EARL
"My Name is Earl" did not necessarily do as well as many had expected last year, with only Jaime Pressly receiving a nomination from the cast, but it did receive awards for the writing and directing of the pilot. I tend to think "Earl" has lost a lot of its buzz, especially in comparison with the other Thursday night NBC offerings, and Lee will rise or fall with the popularity of the show.

STEVE CARRELL AS MICHAEL, THE OFFICE (1 nomination)
There is no denying that Carrell is flat-out hilarious as the most incompetent office runner since Ricky Gervais' David Brent on the British version. His submitted episode, "Business School", may not be his strongest overall, but he has one amazing scene in which he uses candy bars to explain business, sure to garner him a nomination and great chance for the win.

JAMES RODAY AS SHAWN, PSYCH
I do not think "Psych" will be getting a large amount of awards attention, as the only nomination yet comes from the Satellite Awards (and Ted Danson got one for the short-lived and terrible "Help Me Help You"). Regardless, Roday is hilarious as fake psychic Shawn. Having only seen a few episodes, I personally think he could get a nomination if he submits either "From the Earth to Starbucks" or "Cloudy, Chance of Murder".

ZACH BRAFF AS J.D., SCRUBS (1 nomination)
Braff's work this season has been a bit uneven, as he is a bit too giddy at times. He smartly has submitted "My Musical", which shows probably his best work of the season. He missed out on a nomination last year, but I think he should be back this year, mainly due to the musical episode.

ALEC BALDWIN AS JACK, 30 ROCK
Baldwin is probably the biggest lock for this nomination after sweeping the Golden Globe and Screen Actors' Guild Awards earlier this season. I think his performance is unbelievably amazing, but I am disappointed with his recent episode submission switch. He had initally submitted "The Baby Show", where he has some troubles with his mother, but has now changed to the season finale "Hiatus". I think he was sidelined more and more towards the end of the season, and may have hurt his chances at the win by changing the submission (that should be good news for Carrell though, who should finally get his deserved win).

CHARLIE SHEEN AS CHARLIE, TWO AND A HALF MEN (1 nomination)
After Golden Globe and Screen Actors' Guild nominations, Sheen finally got some Emmy recognition last year. The show is very popular but may be eclipsed by recent hits like "Entourage", "The Office", "Scrubs" and "30 Rock".

Current predictions:
KEVIN CONNOLLY, ENTOURAGE
TONY SHALHOUB, MONK
STEVE CARRELL, THE OFFICE
ZACH BRAFF, SCRUBS
ALEC BALDWIN, 30 ROCK

Tomorrow (or sometime in the next few days): Best Lead Actress in a Drama Series.