Last year’s nominees: Jeremy Irons, Hugh Jackman, Paul Mescal, Jeremy Pope, Mark Ruffalo
The competition: Though this category only has enough submissions to trigger five nominees, there are actually a lot of contenders. Midyear awards nominees included Hugh Grant (The Undoing), Ethan Hawke (The Good Lord Bird), Bryan Cranston (Your Honor), and Jeff Daniels (The Comey Rule). Golden Globe voters chose to honor Lin-Manuel Miranda (Hamilton), while his costar Leslie Odom Jr. (Hamilton) was nominated for his role in “One Night in Miami” instead. Top contenders from the second half of the year are Paul Bettany (WandaVision), Joel Edgerton (The Underground Railroad), and Ewan McGregor (Halston). I wish that TV movie contenders like Nnamdi Asomugha (Sylvie’s Love) and Paul Bettany (Uncle Frank) had a better shot, but Bettany’s likely going to get nominated for his other role anyway. It’s worth taking past Emmy favorites like Michael Chiklis (Coyote), Hugh Laurie (Roadkill), Andrew Scott (Oslo), and Martin Sheen (A West Wing Special to Benefit When We All Vote) seriously, and Josh O’Connor (Romeo and Juliet: Great Performances) could benefit from another high-profile role this year. I think this field is too crowded to make room for Jude Law (The Third Day), Chris Rock (Fargo), or Jason Schwartzman (Fargo), but it’s always possible.
The predicted nominees: Bettany, Edgerton, Grant, Hawke, McGregor
The predicted winner: I think McGregor wins if he gets nominated.
Next up: Best Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
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