Emmy Predictions: Best Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

The 64th Primetime Emmy Awards nominations will be announced on Thursday, July 19th. Please refer to my Emmy musings for this category for a detailed analysis of the contenders, and, as always, chime in below in the comments with any thoughts of your own.

Last year’s nominees: Alec Baldwin, Louis C.K., Steve Carell, Johnny Galecki, Matt LeBlanc, Jim Parsons

The competition: This category loses two of its members automatically, since Carell no longer stars on his show and LeBlanc’s series just returned for its second season, meaning that it didn’t air during this eligibility period. Alec Baldwin (30 Rock) is always going to be nominated, and Louis C.K. (Louie) is almost a sure thing since his show is still at the point where it’s gaining popularity. Defending two-time champ Jim Parsons (The Big Bang Theory) was snubbed by Golden Globe voters this past year, but he and costar Johnny Galecki should still make it in. Larry David (Curb Your Enthusiasm) has been nominated four out of seven possible times thus far for his infrequently-airing show, and it’s likely he’ll be back this time for the show’s eighth season. Don Cheadle (House of Lies) is set to earn his first series nomination, though he’ll face competition from a number of other gentlemen. Jon Cryer (Two and a Half Men), who has been nominated for the past six years in the supporting category, finally got a promotion, and he may fall out of the race as a result. Adam Scott (Parks and Recreation) got that same promotion, though he’s also contending against costar Rob Lowe, who was definitely not a lead this year. Danny McBride (Eastbound and Down) could break through for the final season of his show, while Elijah Wood (Wilfred) could for his show’s first. And then there’s Tim Allen (Last Man Standing), who was nominated only once during his last show’s eight-season run but could return again for his latest hit role.

The predicted nominees: Alec Baldwin, Don Cheadle, Louis C.K, Larry David, Johnny Galecki, Jim Parsons

The predicted winner: Cheadle

Next up: Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series